CANTERBURY
WEDNESDAY 25 JULY
TRACK: GOOD 4 (4.7)
BEST BETS:
Race 4 No.8 SHADAL
Race 6 No.8 ALMANZORA
Race 1
4 – 1 – 2 – 3
I concede that the two favourites I’m A Legend and Be Mindful are hard to beat but I think both are rock bottom odds and that RESONARE represents good value in the small field. Resonare was disappointing last start but I thought he just struggled to pick up when forced to with 59kg on his back and with only 53.5kg today he may just be able to show his better form like his previous start when narrowly beaten by Fun Fact.
Race 2
5 – 4 – 1 – 7
The two main contenders come through the same race at Warwick Farm behind Taygeta who was able to dominant and win. Smart Ain’t He gets barrier one today and that is the reason I’ve gone with him as well as the ability to put himself on-pace and he may just be able to dictate from there. Safe Landing was great on debut and is sure to be around the mark with Coltrane the other winning chance.
Race 3
2 – 1 – 3 – 4
This is a cracking 2yo race with a few that might just be able to be followed when the feature racing comes about in the next month or so. DANAWI was very good on debut when second to subsequent group one winner The Autumn Sun and from a good gate here can dominate and be hard to beat. Exceltic resumes and just needs a touch of luck from the gate to play a role while Sneaking To Win was very good here on debut when charging to just fail behind Master Ash. England is the big query when reports from the stable suggesting he has plenty of ability.
Race 4
8 – 5 – 6 – 2
With Waller scratching Raqeeq it leaves the stablemate SHADAL as the one to beat. He has only raced in Australia three times and improved at each start resulting in a last start win at Newcastle. It’s another step up here but he looks a nice staying type capable of bigger things and he should be hard to hold out here. Balmain Boy looks to get a nice economical run as does Fantastic man and they look the two main threats in my eyes.
Race 5
3 – 9 – 1 – 6
Looks an open race and that is why I have put six in my quaddie and I still may miss the winner. I have gone with CARLUCA on top who is a stalwart for these types of races and if can get a nice run his toughness will have him in the race for a long way. El Dorado Mine has returned in super order with two solid runs and looks a major player here especially if he goes bang early and rolls to the front. Banner Season has been freshened since a Queensland campaign and can easily snatch a win here while Gauguin gets the blinkers and can improve sharply from seven days ago.
Race 6
8 – 16 – 11 – 3
ALMANZORA is first up after 15 months but if the money comes and she looks ready when she steps into the yard she will be very hard to beat. Her three career runs to date have been against quality opposition and her two trials have looked good for a first up run so I am happy to wait till closer to race time and take shorter odds but knowing everything is in order. Vega was good winning first up and can run well again at nice value.
Race 7
6 – 14 – 9 – 5
SMARTEDGE on top and I am sure he will be hard to beat but I think it’s more open than the betting is suggesting as of this morning. His first up run after six week freshens up was very good when beaten in Saturday grade so you’d think he will be amongst the spoils here. Metamorphic will appreciate being a little fresher and more importantly a good surface so he can show his best form. Savvan is racing in terrific form and if she gets the chance to win up she will charge and be in the mix for sure.
Quaddie:
1st leg: 8
2nd leg: 1 – 3 – 4 – 6 – 7 – 9
3rd leg: 8
4th leg: 1 – 3 – 5 – 6 – 8 – 9 – 14
Cost $42 = 100%