ROSEHILL
SATURDAY 21 JULY
TRACK: GOOD 4 RAIL: True
BEST BETS:
Race 4 No.12 RAQEEQ
Race 8 No.13 STAR OF MONSOON
Race 1
6 – 2 – 1 – 8
Thinkin’ Big is coming off a three week break and stepping from 1200m to 1500m but looks to get total control up front so must be respected. Inherit was very good winning on debut albeit in weaker grade at Newcastle but I liked the way he found the line. The one to toss though is LABURNUM who was good first up and then solid last start when looming to win. Third up here and the extra 100m she will take some holding out. Nobu comes through the same race and can’t be dismissed.
Race 2
5 – 3 – 1 – 6
Really keen that there are two leading players that standout from the others. The favourite Falcon Island looks to have struck form with two strong runs after putting in two poor runs to kick off his preparation. Last start he bolted in and he will likely lead here and be looking to do the same. I am siding with THE MACALLAN though who has only raced in Australia once and it was very good third behind stablemate Jolly Honour. Coming off a trip across the Tasman and a four week break and run that well showed he is a handy individual. The step up 200m here is ideal and from gate one he will take some holding out.
Race 3
11 – 6 – 3 – 4
It looks another race that looks a race in two with NICCONITA hard to beat but if she was to get rolled it’d be the Jan Bowen gelding Roman Typhoon. Nicconita backs after running well last Saturday when just failing to run down Gitan over 1400m at Randwick. The 1500m is still a little query but I think with the lack of depth here she can get the job done especially from a soft draw. Roman Typhoon is fourth up which means he will be rock hard fit but the query with him is the jump from 1100m to 1500m and whether he can run it out strongly. His form is rock solid for this and his class will take him a long way.
Race 4
12 – 7 – 1 – 3
RAQEEQ gets his chance to show his worth here from an ideal gate and with only 53kg on his back and McEvoy to steer if he is going to bob up in some feature staying races he must get the job done. Fitness won’t be an issue as he looked on the mark last start a fortnight ago when he just failed to run down Vaucluse Bay who looms as a major stumbling block again. Carzoff was outstanding first up on a soft track and is sure going to appreciate a firmer track here. Just Shine just needs a repeat of his last run to be right around the mark from a perfect barrier while Veladero is the big improver if he is able to get control up front.
Race 5
5 – 2 – 3 – 7
If CONDOR HEROES brings his best form and trial form to race day I think he can kick off his campaign with a win. He is first up for almost a year but Gerald Ryan is renowned as a very good fresh conditioner so there shouldn’t be any worries. Piracy is first up for five months and looks to have had a nice long build up to his resumption with four trials over a two month period. His latest two trials have been strong efforts to suggest he will be ready. Niccolance is the only horse Kevin Moses currently trains and a win isn’t far away after a nice effort first in a tougher race. From a good gate he should settle very handy and play a role.
Race 6
10 – 8 – 6 – 11
If the real PARET turns up he could blow this field away and be destined for better races in the coming months. I thought his first up run here two weeks ago when coming from well back showed he may be on target and ready to produce his best. Foreign Territory has had a month’s freshen up and drops back to 1400m a distance he was dominant over two runs back. He will settle handy either leading or tagging Military Academy and is sure to have a start on Paret as they turn for home. Snitzel Day is the big improver for me having drawn barrier one and Blake Shinn on board he will likely get a nice economical run.
Race 7
4 – 16 – 13 – 1
On paper it looks an open race but I found it hard not to tip INVINZABEEL who run third first up before two solid second placings against the same opposition and having draw barrier one he just has to be around the major spoils. Flow steps back up in trip after resuming at 1400m then dropping to 1350m then again down to 1200m. The tempo at 1500m should allow him to settle on-pace which is where he races best. Hiflyer gets Bowman and blinkers added to his gear so keep the Kiwi safe amongst the players. Special Missile is a player as he will settle on-pace and will give 100% while Mister Sea Wolf gets back onto a firmer track and with blinkers go he is capable of jumping out of the ground.
Race 8
13 – 10 – 6 – 9
STAR OF MONSOON has been very good to us and I see no reason to jump ship as he looks to map perfect here and should be hard to beat again. Since being gelded we have seen the true form of this 4yo and it was great to see him resume in good order two weeks ago here. There doesn’t look mad speed with Isorich likely to lead and then Top Striker, Best Guess and then probably Drachenfels and Star Of Monsoon next and that happens he will be hard to hold out. His stablemate Albumin in low flying but will need luck from his wide draw but with Jay Ford riding in career best form he may have a surprise and could press forward. Eusebio turns up here off a six week freshen up after turning in a super effort to win first up at Moonee Valley. He will be coming hard late and looks a major player.
Race 9
12 – 13 – 2 – 4
I am sticking with BELLA SUCCESS and Oria who clashed last Saturday when filling the placings behind Our Malambo. Bella Success came from back and was terrific and a repeat effort will have her right amongst the spoils especially with what looks a nice tempo on paper. Oria will again put herself in a nice spot and give everything she has. Envy Of All got all the favours last start when beating Bella Success but must be given her dues as she has won two on the trot and from a good gate she will again make her presence felt.
QUADDIE:
1st leg: 6, 8, 10
2nd leg: 1, 3, 4, 6, 9, 10, 13, 16
3rd leg: 13
4th leg: 2, 12, 13
Cost $96 = 25%