CAULFIELD SATURDAY 28 JULY
GOOD 4
BEST BETS:
Race 1 Number 3 Ruban Bleu
Race 4 Number 1 Merriest
Race 5 Number 1 Mount Kilcoy
Race 1
RUBAN BLEU has shown good ability at his two career starts and from barrier one should stalk the leaders. He had a three week break between his debut run and next outing and now comes here off a four week freshen up. His turn of speed will hopefully prove the difference at the end of 1400m. The favourite Social Spin did a good job winning at Sandown last start but after crossing from a wide gate he was allowed to amble along and quicken when he wanted.
3 – 1 – 4 – 7
Race 2
Looks a race with some depth but I have settled on SEE ME EXCEED who I thought was very good at her last start back in February when a closing sixth in the group 2 Angus Armanasco. All her form is around quality horses and if she has come back in good order she will play a role. Honey Esprit is the value runner coming here off a nine week break and dropping back in distance. The solid speed here that is expected will suit her. Miss Pandanus is two from two and last start accounted for last Saturday Flemington winner Naantali so she must be respected. Soul Star was unlucky last start here and a repeat of that run will have her in the mix but again she will need luck from a poor barrier.
8 – 5 – 11 – 7
Race 3
MANTASTIC looks awfully hard to beat having shown very good ability at his three starts since arriving in Australia. He comes back a 100m which should pose too much trouble but he is likely to settler worse than midfield and with not a lot of speed on paper he will have do much of the heavy lifting by himself. That said there is a lot of dead wood in the race and he should be able to round them up. The Avenger looks the biggest threat but he also has drawn poorly but with him going up in distance he may race a tad closer giving him his best chance of causing an upset.
3 – 5 – 10 – 16
Race 4
She will need a few things to go her way but I am banking on the class of MERRIEST to get her over the line as well as the brilliance of Damien Oliver. She hasn’t stepped out since Magic Millions day in January but prior to that she competed well in black type company. Just Hifalutin resumed and was outstanding when flying to just miss here three weeks ago. A repeat of that run will have her around the mark. Princess Of Queens is capable of running a cheeky race fresh while Modern Wonder will improve second up and from a soft draw.
Race 5
MOUNT KILCOY is emerging as a promising stayer and even allowing for the fact he got the favourers last start unlike the favourite Masculino he was good enough to get the job done and be strong at the end of 2000m. The extra two furlongs look right up his alley and he will take a power of beating. Pure Colour comes through a midweek race but I liked her run over the mile when hitting the line and with the step up to 2400m and being trained by a top conditioner of staying horses Paddy Payne I respect this filly at good odds. Dante Rossetti is jumping in grade but must always respect when Gai Waterhouse switches her horses down here as they have been racing very well.
1 – 11 – 2 – 7
Race 6
The Kenny Keys stable is flying at present and I reckon his runner TUFF BICKIE having drawn barrier one will take some beating. He was very good a fortnight ago when off a three week break and with that run bringing him on he is sure to give you a big sight here at nice odds. Bondeiger comes back in grade, draws a perfect barrier and fitness should be spot on backing up after running well a week ago against far better opposition. Gai Waterhouse’s runner Almalita will work across and with no weight on her back is sure to give plenty of cheek while it’s hard to knock the top one Self Sense who lines up here after winning over the jumps last start has shown he can go back and forth and he does get the blinkers added to his gear.
5 – 2 -11 -1
Race 7
VEGA MAGIC wants an Everest slot and if that is going to happen he will have to win this and do it in fashion that makes it impossible for the slot owners that haven’t a runner left to leave him out. The Hayes and Dabernig camp have added blinkers and from all reports he is flying. His jump outs have suggested he is up to the mark and ready to go. It was hard to miss Voodoo Lad a fortnight ago here and if there is a chink with Vega Magic he will be the one finding out. Black Heart Bart has been a star and it’s great to have him back and I think he will run well.
2 – 3 – 1 – 8
Race 8
SNITZEPEG was bolting here last start and had nowhere to go when finishing near the back behind Mandela effect. He has had three runs back so he should be rock hard fit and he is well weighted for a few that he meets from the same race. The bad gate isn’t ideal but there looks good pressure meaning he should get his chance to run on. King’s Authority looks to lob in the perfect spot and only needs to repeat his last run here to be in the money. Remember The Name has some solid form behind him and he rocks up off a little three weeks freshen up.
1 – 3 – 12 – 2
Race 9
CHAMOIS ROAD returns here after a hit and run visit to Sydney when a closing fifth behind the speedy Dreamforce. He and Ozi Choice clashed a few runs back and although he meets the other worse at the weights he looks good odds. He is rock hard fit and sometimes a trip away can really switch on a horse. Ozi Choice comes back 200m which is ideal as he just struggled to see the mile out and if he overcome the wide draw which I think he can he will take some running down. Call Me Handsome is from the Gelagotis stable who are on fire and turns up here after being a tad unlucky here a fortnight ago.
1 – 2 – 12 – 5
QUADDIE:
1st: 2, 5, 11
2nd: 2, 3
3rd: 1, 2, 3, 7, 12
4th: 1, 2, 12
$45 = 50%