BACKING HORSES RESUMING FROM A SPELL IS A QUICK WAY TO THE POOR HOUSE….Part 6

07/03/13

On 30/8/12 I publicly placed on this website the first of what will be 12 monthly articles proving how financially catastrophic the practice of backing horses resuming from a spell is.

The five original articles which can be viewed HERE – HERE – HERE – HERE and HERE contained the names of all the horses that had resumed from a spell in Saturday metropolitan races run in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in the first five calendar months of the new racing season, namely 1/8/12 to 31/8/12 inclusive, 1/9/12 to 30/9/12 inclusive, 1/10/12 to 31/10/12, 1/11/12 to 30/11/12, and 1/12/12 to 31/12/12 inclusive.

Also noted was 1) the track rating that prevailed at the end of the relevant race meeting, as well as 2) the trainer’s name and 3) the placing of the subject horse and 4) the official starting price.

It’s now time to review the January 2013 results from horses that resumed in the three eastern seaboard States.

Please note that in the below text obviously “B” stands for Brisbane, “S” for Sydney and “M” for Melbourne.

The full list of horses that resumed in Saturday city races for the entire month of January 2013 in those three States reads:

DATE

CITY

HORSE

WKS OFF

PRICE

TRAINER

5/1/13

B-G3

Dalton

2nd

$2.30

Hawkes

Revitalise

5th

$3.20

Murphy

Karl The Great

8th

$12

Fleming

Vital Organ

9th

$41

Birchley

S-G3

Riebeek

10th

$41

Hill

Earnest Ernest

5th

$7.50

Pride

Mac Chois

8th

$51

Robinson

Territory

2nd

$12

Austin

Lining

9th

$41

Costa

Diamond Earth

12th

$6.50

A. Cummings

Foreteller

2nd

$17

Waller

Tullamore

9th

$21

Waterhouse

O’Reilly’s Prize

4th

$21

Waterhouse

Sutton Queen

8th

$12

Griffith

Pitt Street

2nd

Lees

Kuhreihen

4th

$4.40

Snowden

M-G3

First Command

1st

$4.60

A. Freedman

Rocking Force

2nd

$21

Shillito

Waltzes

6th

$13

McLean

Flashy Fellow

4th

$26

Moroney

Velonski

6th

$12

Eurell

General Peekay

1st

Price

Good Thinking

8th

$26

Stephenson

Inablitz

3rd

$16

Price

Go Katrina

6th

$15

Eurell

Sport Chic

7th

$15

McDonald

12/1/13

GC-G3

Karma Force

9th

$21

Heinrich

Royal Jester

L/R

Birchley

Eagle Falls

7th

Hayes

Doubtful Jack

4th

$13

Schweida

Craiglea Falcon

8th

$15

Fleming

Leealan

9th

Morrisey

Fast Clip

6th

Waterhouse

Nediym’s Quest

12th

$15

Pfieffer

S-G3

Dolphus

4th

$26

A. Cummings

Natch Catch

1st

$14

Olive

Sindarin

5th

$4.80

Snowden

Slick Sniper

5th

$31

Bartley

Relaxed And Happy

3rd

$2.90

Waller

Taxmeifyoucan

2nd

$6.50

Hickman

Sherocksmyworld

8th

Waterhouse

Knot Out

11th

$17

Messara

Hardbreak Hotel

6th

$9.50

Walter

Our Barney

10th

$101

Walter

M-D4

Legcut

5th

$51

McArdle

Boom ‘N’ Zoom

3rd

$20

Keys

Rowland

11th

$51

Laing

Cosmic Causeway

6th

$21

Moody

Aashiq

2nd

$81

Hayes

General Rippa

11th

$51

Hayes

King’s Pardon

13th

$12

Price

Posen

14th

$101

Brown

19/1/13

B-G3

Nada To Prada

8th

$31

Duff

Frisco Lights

1st

$26

Henderson

Unrefuseable

10th

$51

Hocking

Prost

5th

Thompson

Aldini

6th

$3.10

D. Kelly

The Jackal

10th

$15

St. Vincent

The Sixties

6th

$13

Green

Silver Bullion

3rd

$6.50

Heathcote

S-G3

Chiaramonte

2nd

Snowden

Falklands

4th

Quinn

Pineapple

7th

$31

McCormick

Laser Flash

3rd

$9.50

Payne

Girls Go Racing

10th

$26

Hickman

Net Worth

11th

$4.80

Smith

Ying La

5th

$10

Delaney

Single

9th

$7.50

Carmody

Gazza Guru

8th

$71

Farley

Palasport

7th

$21

Hickman

M-D4

Enchanting Waters

10th

$71

Sell

Unchain My Heart

2nd

$61

Hayes

Light Express

2nd

$8.50

Hibbs

Grade

14th

$6.50

Hickmott

Buxted

9th

$71

Prit/Gordon

Montgomery

16th

$151

Alderson

Crimson Lady

13th

$21

Moroney

Melting Moment

10th

$9.50

Cameron

26/1/13

GC-H10

Emoticon

6th

$12

Webb

S-G3

Guelph

1st

$1.90

Snowden

Cannery Row

6th

$21

Walter

Sables

13th

$26

Snowden

So Symbolic

3rd

Waterhouse

M-G3

Taffetas

4th

$7.50

Snowden

Rusambo

2nd

Snowden

Kuroshio

2nd

$3.30

Snowden

Excitable Boy

6th

O’Brien

Fast ‘N’ Rocking

4th

$21

Hayes

Spartini

5th

Weir

Riviere

2nd

$15

Smerdon

Manhattan Maid

8th

$21

Weir

Decircles

2nd

$3.70

O’Brien

Members Joy

4th

Smerdon

To show what an exercise in futility it is backing horses resuming, during January 2013 another 93 horses resumed from a spell across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Saturday city races – and of those 93 horses only five (5.37%) won, meaning that in the six months to date of the current racing season, a total of 785 horses have resumed across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne and of those 785 horses only 77 have won, which means just 9.80% of horses resuming in a Saturday city race won during the months of August, September, October, November and December 2012 and January 2103 – so conversely an amazing 90.20% lost.

If a punter had $1 a win on all horses resuming, they would obviously outlay $785 and they’d get back just $600.96, so they’d lose 23.45% of their stake. Two roughies won first up in December 2012 which helped the punter’s return figure out tremendously – and they were Jester’s Girl at 40/1 in Brisbane on 1/12/12 and Beltrois at 25/1 in Melbourne on 22/12/12 and another roughie won in January 2013, when $26 hope Frisco Lights won in Brisbane on 19/1/13.

Take a short priced overview of the group of horses resuming and if a punter had $1 a win on every horse that jumped at a starting price of $4 inclusive or less, there were 68 horses in that category, season-to-date so a punter would obviously outlay $68 and the return would have been only $56.66, so a punter would lose on this strategy also – and the financial loss would only be 16.68%.

In fact during the entire month of January 2013 nine horses started at $4 or under in the above table and the only one of the nine (11.11%) that won was the Peter Snowden trained Guelph when that 2YO scored in Sydney on 26/1/13. The eight that all got rolled at short prices resuming in January 2013 with their starting price and trainer’s name were: Dalton (Hawkes $2.30 – second), Revitalise (Murphy $3.20 – fifth), Relaxed And Happy (Waller $2.90 – third), Aldini (D. Kelly $3.10 – sixth), Rusambo (Snowden $4 – second), Kuroshio (Snowden $3.30 – second), Excitable Boy (O’Brien $4 – sixth) and Decircles (O’Brien $3.70 –second).

In the racing season to date, the shortest priced horse resuming from a spell that got beaten was the Joe Pride trained Sydney sprinter Rain Affair at $1.50. That horse ran fourth at Warwick Farm to stablemate Tiger Tees on 8/9/12.

In the racing season to date, the best training performance was by Robbie Griffiths who trained Beltrois to win first up at Flemington after 59 weeks off. The second best effort in the racing season to date was by Rick Hore-Lacy who produced Chase The Rainbow to win at Caulfield on 1/9/12 after 47 weeks off. The only other two trainers who have trained a Saturday city class winner that hadn’t started for at least 40 weeks – were Jason Coyle who trained Lady Be Great to win first up after 46 weeks at Warwick Farm on 1/12/12 and Leon Corstens who trained Tokugawa to win at Moonee Valley on 4/8/12 after 45 weeks off.

In Brisbane only 18 of 176 first up horses have won in the season-to-date which means 10.22% have won – and conversely 89.78% have been beaten.

In Sydney 32 of 227 horses resuming have won which means 14.09% have won – and conversely 85.91% have been beaten.

In Melbourne 27 horses from the 337 that have resumed to the end of November 2012 have won, meaning an abysmal 8.01% have won, or conversely 91.99% have been beaten.

In the racing season-to-date the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where the group resuming provided the winner was on 8/9/12 at Flemington in the Bobbie Lewis Quality where nine horses resumed – Mosheen, We’re Gonna Rock, Ahdashim, Scintillo, Smokin’ Joey, Spirit of Boom, Speediness, Blackie and Pago Rock – and We’re Gonna Rock won the race as the $6.50 equal favourite.

In the racing season-to-date the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where that group of horses didn’t provide the winner was at Flemington on 8/9/12 in the Cap D’Antibes Stakes when seven horses resumed – Affable, Molto Bene, Armed For Action, Sabie, Donna Cattiva, Dazzler, All About The Coin – but 25/1 chance Members Joy won the race easily.

So Justracing can reveal that backing horses resuming from a spell is an absolute and utter waste of money, as even in the season-to-date, 11 of the 65 winners (16.92%) started at odds-on, so 11 horses weren’t even betting propositions, because of the odds-on factor.

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