29/01/14
On 7/2/2013 I penned the first of what would be 12 monthly stories proving that backing horses that hadn’t won a race anywhere for the last 52 weeks or more, when those horses were contesting Saturday city races – is simply a quick way for a punter to lose their hard earned.
To have any chance of winning whilst punting over the course of a calendar year, punters need to establish some rules to abide by. Those rules may be to 1) not to back odds-on favourites, 2) not to bet on slow or heavy tracks, 3) not to back horses resuming from a spell, 4) not to back horses from certain overrated stables, etcetera.
Avoiding backing horses in Saturday city races that haven’t won a race anywhere in the last 52 weeks is a good rule to implement into one’s punting strategy – as I’ve already proven in 11 of the 12 articles that have already gone up here during the last 12 months. Like any other rule of punting, the odd one will win, but not enough will win to make you ever consider changing the rule once it’s been invoked.
Those 11 previous stories that I’ve already penned on the subject from the first 11 calendar months of 2013 – can be read in the archives at the far bottom of this page.
Today I look back on “long term losers” that raced in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne Saturday races during the month of December 2013 and you’ll see a few familiar names that you regularly 1) hear the “experts” and “good judges” tip and/or that 2) ill-informed punters back time and again. The track rating at the end of the meeting is listed in the report along with the number of months since the horse has won, along with the name of the trainer, the placing it ran on the day and the official starting price.
DATE
CITY
HORSE
MNTHS SINCE WON
PLACING
PRICE
TRAINER
7/12
B-G3
Seek And Find
18
7
$9
Wood
Theft
14
6
$15
T. Gollan
Germayne Lass
12
5
$6
Forster
Mightysui
14
6
$51
Steinbeck
Renewed Vitality
26
7
$17
Thompson
The White Hope
12
1
$1.80
Dunn
Facile Tigre
26
13
$21
McLachlan
Firebolt
17
15
$101
Wood
Phelan Ready
56
6
$26
McLachlan
Steel Zip
12
4
$16
Duff
Havatryst
22
8
$71
Heathcote
Comahni
19
12
$26
Wilson
S-G3
Viking Legend
50
1
$31
Simpson
Super Cavalier
17
7
$301
Wilkes
Home On/Wing
28
6
$9
Anthony C
Reigning
12
4
$17
Bart Cumm
I’m Imposing
37
8
$26
Waller
My Destiny
23
5
$9
Litt
Carrick
14
6
$26
Williams
Soledad
17
3
$8
Snowden
M-D4
Serene Tanie
26
9
$71
Laing
Vatuvei
13
7
$51
Moody
Ourfor/minister
17
9
$81
Dwyer
Lord Pyrus
33
10
$31
Mawer
Giresun
23
10
$21
Harris
The Wingman
12
5
$31
Vasil
Youbolt
16
11
$41
McLean
Canonized
14
2
$11
Kent
Kenjorwood
24
5
$5.50
Moody
Republic Lad
23
7
$20
Waller
Rock Robster
12
10
$51
Hayes
My Bentley
17
10
$71
Bottomley
Galileo Gold
17
7
$71
Harrison
14/12
B-G2
Za Magic
20
7
$11
Smith
Havatryst
22
5
$9
Heathcote
Spatha
25
1
$11
Brosnan
Scorpio Queen
19
3
$41
Kelly
Caliente
12
10
$51
Hill
Essington
29
2
$13
Hansen
Merryanna
12
2
$7.50
Hurley
Stradon
20
1
$2.80
Gough
By Choice
12
8
$21
T. Gollan
Blakey Boy
28
15
$21
Morris
S-G3
Rule Book
14
2
$26
W/house
Maluckyday
37
4
$5
Pride
Permit
20
1
$8
Waller
Oakfield Comet
22
9
$31
Smith
Recoinage
14
8
$9.50
Pride
Western Symbol
19
11
$18
W/house
Monton
23
4
$21
Quinton
Kaypers
16
9
$61
Bennett
Palasport
16
8
$31
Hickman
Forarainyday
15
3
$6.50
Walter
Reflectance
13
2
$9
Thompson
Aeronautical
13
1
$5.50
Cohen
Straight Albert
23
6
$81
Walter
Pampelonne
14
3
$15
Martin
Uate
12
11
$31
Lees
M-G3
Nicholls Court
15
2
$13
Dickson
Big Buddie
14
10
$51
Sawden
Spartini
20
6
$31
Weir
Outlandish Lad
12
5
$7
O’Leary
Amaethon
20
2
$16
Ellerton/Zahra
The Peak
12
1
$5
Bart Cumm
Eraset
17
5
$18
O’Brien
Rockpecker
21
10
$41
Fythe
Simmering
28
11
$15
Gelagotis
Waterford Hill
17
8
$13
Corstens
Another Prelate
12
10
$17
Scott
Cascabel
31
8
$16
Griffiths
Hotham Heights
17
7
$14
Oliver
Morant
26
2
$9
Williams
Infinite Energy
12
6
$5.50
Moody
Prizum
14
7
$21
Sadler
Edgewood
19
4
$9.50
Griffiths
21/12
B-G3
Plateau Gold
14
8
$5.50
Jarvis
The Conspirator
12
5
$4.60
Sears
Excellantes
18
3
$8
Heathcote
Seek And Find
19
8
$17
Wood
Belgrando
13
9
$101
Walk
Blended
12
10
$31
Yorke
Darth
19
14
$151
Van Hoeyen
Fairy Queen
13
13
$71
Duryea
Mightysui
13
12
$81
Steinbeck
Arctic
12
1
$9
Smith
Lightning Vault
12
9
$31
Butterworth
Startsmeup
12
6
$16
Hill
Steel Zip
12
12
$14
Duff
Phelan Ready
56
10
$26
McLachlan
Renewed Vitality
26
7
$41
Thompson
Hi Son
12
1
$5
D Kelly
S-G3
Hard Liquor
15
8
$14
Anthony C
Omniscient
16
2
$9.50
Snowden
Kontiki Park
16
11
$26
W/house
My Destiny
24
13
$21
Litt
Vilanova
12
3
$2.80
Waller
Rolston
27
1
$31
O’Grady
Sainthood
43
9
$61
Wo/ington
Samui Lad
12
10
$31
Gavenlock
M-G3
Lady of Harrods
14
3
$5
Cameron
The Minister
15
8
$7.50
Keirl
Blazing Dragon
14
4
$2.50
Bart Cum
Tooleybuc Kid
13
5
$18
Weir
Lord Pyrus
34
7
$61
Mawer
Looklook
23
9
$101
McDonald
Dash For Viz
25
9
$15
Griffiths
The Wingman
12
8
$31
Vasil
Giresun
23
12
$31
Harris
Mister M/penny
35
11
$19
Thornton
Extra Zero
20
5
$8
Hayes
Prizum
14
3
$18
Sadler
Canonized
14
4
$6
Kent
Mrs Hadlee
14
2
$9.50
Moroney
Excel Shoes
17
8
$31
O’Neill
28/12
B-G3
Mr Light Blue
12
3
$8
Baldwin
Havatryst
22
10
$71
Heathcote
Renewed Vitality
27
2
$2.70
Thompson
Merryanna
13
3
$2.15
Hurley
Hearts/Diamonds
24
6
$12
McLachlan
Caliente
12
8
$15
Hill
G’Day Old Mate
21
4
$6.50
Squair
Haizum
21
9
$51
Sears
Confident Star
12
8
$9
Heinrich
What Happ/henry
13
10
$41
Schweida
Harada Bay
13
1
$17
Meagher
By Choice
13
5
$12
T. Gollan
Big Decision
14
6
$6.50
Heathcote
Masterful Play
14
11
$5.50
Dunn
S-G3
Reigning
13
5
$5.50
Bart Cumm
Big Memory
14
1
$3.60
McEvoy
Dolphi’s Boy
12
2
$17
Hill
Recoinage
14
2
$10
Pride
Panko
12
8
$14
Atkins
For/fivehundred
12
2
$11
Anthony
Western Symbol
20
9
$31
W/house
Brigatin
31
5
$71
Waller
Straight Albert
23
7
$9.50
Walter
Kaypers
16
2
$18
Bennett
M-G3
Star of Jeune
12
12
$26
Payne
French Caution
26
6
$71
Eurell
Dashing Shadow
20
8
$17
Johnstone
Big Buddie
14
11
$71
Sawden
Our Hand/Faith
14
5
$26
Weir
Galileo Gold
18
4
$26
Harrison
Waterford Hill
18
12
$16
Corstens
In the final of 12 calendar months meetings of 2013 at Saturday metropolitan race meetings in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, a further 145 horses that hadn’t won for 52 weeks or more started during December 2013. Of those 145 horses only 12, or only 8.28% won. The 12 that won in this month’s surveyed horses included some real little heartthrobs of the Australian turf – The White Hope, Viking Legend, Spatha, Stradon, Permit, Aeronautical, The Peak, Arctic, Hi Son, Rolston, Harada Bay and Big Memory.
If a punter had $1 a win on the 145 “long term losers” that raced in December, they’d obviously outlay $145 and the return, including their $1 stake back, was amazingly only a small loss, as they’d get back $130.70 – thanks to a couple of scrubbers winning in Sydney, namely Viking Legend and Rolston, which both started at 30/1, so a punter would get 90.14% of their outlay back, meaning they’d finally show a small loss of 9.86% of their stake.
So in the 12 months that this story has been run on Justracing, no fewer than 2066 “long term losers” have run – and of the 2066, only 134 have won, which means 6.48% of “long term losers” actually managed to win another Saturday city race, so conversely 93.52% lost, which shows punters what an exercise in futility the practice is.
Across the 12 months, a $1 win bet on each horse would see $2066 outlaid ($113 in January, $125 in February, $156 in March, $154 in April, $240 in May, $246 in June, $207 in July, $232 in August, $150 in September, $135 in October, $163 in November and $145 in December) and the return including their $1 stake would be $1385.25 ($48.50 in January, $45.50 in February, $85.00 in March, $84.00 in April, $125.50 in May, $114.90 in June, $226.80 in July, $191.40 in August, $17.70 in September, $127.10 in October, $188.15 in November and $130.70 in December), meaning a punter would get back 67.05% of their outlay, so conversely they’d lose 32.95% of their stake.
In the entire 2013 calendar year, the Saturday city race in any of Brisbane, Sydney, or Melbourne that had the biggest number of “long term losers” in it, was Race 5 at Flemington on 22/6/13. There were no fewer than 11 horses that jumped from the barriers in that field of 16 that had not won a race for 52 weeks or longer and those 11 horses and the number of months that they had been absent from the winners list were: Extra Zero (14), Utah Saints (14), Magnifique Soleil (13), Rockpecker (15), Testascana (21), By The Way (18), Blackie (27), Dash For Viz (20), Under The Hat (16), Cornwall Park (24), Dark Note (24). So those 11 horses comprised an amazing 68.75% of the 16-horse field, yet the pair that finished up running the quinella didn’t emanate from that huge group of “long term losers” and “non-achievers” – as Club Command won the race and Another Prelate ran second.
The shortest priced “long term loser” to get home first in the 2013 calendar year was Rain Affair at $1.30. He got home in the Group 3 Missile Stakes at Randwick on 10/8/13 beating five slugs after he’d been out of the winner’s list for an incredible 16 months.
Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the the first of two montages of photos from Eagle Farm last Saturday plus others of interest. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s the popular “What’s In A Name” segment from last Saturday’s races, whilst www.melbourneracing.com.au looks at the Victorian racing scene.