08/08/13
On 7/2/2013 I penned the first of what will be 12 monthly stories proving that backing horses that haven’t won a race anywhere for the last 52 weeks or more, when those horses are contesting Saturday city races – is simply a quick way for a punter to lose their hard earned.
To have any remote chance of winning whilst punting over the course of a calendar year, punters need to establish some rules to abide by. Those rules may be to 1) not to back odds-on favourites, 2) not to bet on slow or heavy tracks, 3) not to back horses resuming from a spell, 4) not to back horses from certain overrated stables, etcetera.
Avoiding backing horses in Saturday city races that haven’t won in the last 52 weeks is a good rule to implement into one’s punting strategy as I’ll prove conclusively in those 12 articles that will go up publicly during this calendar year. Like any other rule of punting, the odd one will win, but not enough will win to make you ever consider changing the rule once it’s been invoked.
The six previous stories that I penned on the subject from the first six calendar months of this year can be read in the archives at the far bottom of this page.
Today I look back on “long term losers” that raced in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne Saturday races during the month of July 2013 and you’ll see a few familiar names that you regularly 1) hear the “experts” tip and/or that 2) ill-informed punters back time and again. The track rating at the end of the meeting is listed in the report along with the number of months since the horse has won, along with the name of the trainer, the placing it ran on the day and the official starting price.
DATE
CITY
HORSE
SINCE WON
PLACE
PRICE
TRAINER
6/7
B-S6
FACE OFF
18
6
$16
Heathcote
RUN WITH ME
14
9
$17
Whittington
CARN
13
11
$101
Johnson
PEPPERED BLACK
13
8
$26
L. May/Smith
BAQABA
36
7
$61
Tregea
DOUBLE IMPACT
16
4
$10
Crompton
DALZAR
29
FTF
$26
Duryea
MUIRFIELD
15
4
$6
Moroney
GRIFFON
12
2
$7.50
Heathcote
METALLURGICAL
14
6
$17
Thompson
DOUBTFUL JACK
21
8
$31
Schweida
DANSAL
16
1
$21
Wilson
S-S7
ILLO
37
2
$8.50
Waller
CARRICK
20
9
$21
Williams
WINNING GLORY
12
3
$8.50
Payne
EURYALE
12
7
$13
Snowden
SCOTTISH BORDER
16
5
$8
Frazer
SLICK SNIPER
16
6
$91
Bartley
BAG OF NICKELS
18
12
$16
Robinson
THEBIGIAM
13
6
$21
Curtis
MIC MAC
46
1
$16
Messara
PRETTY PINS
18
5
$7
Thompson
PRAECIDO
16
9
$17
Payne
GLIDING
20
7
$12
B. Cummings
EIGELSTEIN
21
1
$2.60
Waller
ACAPELA
17
8
$10
Waller
HAPPY HUSSY
18
2
$8
Vandyke
KENNY’S WORLD
33
8
$61
G. Murray
MY DESTINY
18
3
$14
Berry
ZARATONE
15
2
$5
B. Baker
MASTER HARRY
28
1
$21
Quinton
LIVEANDLETDIE
16
9
$31
B. Baker
CAPITAL COMMANDER
17
12
$13
Olive
FLYING EMPRESS
19
14
$21
Pride
SUSSURO
12
8
$26
Messara
OAKFIELD COMET
17
7
$14
D. Smith
SINGLE STYLE
14
1
$4.20
Portelli
M-G3
UPBEAT
16
9
$3.80
A. Cummings
GAIL
12
7
$7
Griffiths
MIDNIGHT GLORY
23
2
$9
Weir
SEA SKYE
12
3
$51
Laming
KEL’S MAGIC
20
10
$101
Gould
EDGEWOOD
14
2
$5
Griffiths
UNDER THE LEAVER
12
10
$26
Vasil
CHASSE
14
6
$26
Snowden
PERTURBO
23
9
$12
Alderson
SHELLSCRAPE
38
10
$26
Burke
DASH FOR VIZ
20
4
$10
Griffiths
LIVIGNO
15
2
$31
Fliedner
MAGNIFIQUE SOLEIL
13
1
$5
Weir
ROCKPECKER
16
7
$31
Fythe
TESTASCANA
22
12
$26
Cerchi
HOLLOWLEA
33
10
$20
O’Sullivan
UNDER THE HAT
16
8
$6.50
Sadler
SAHARA SUN
30
7
$18
Maher
HINDU’S GIRL
19
8
$151
Horobin
INNOCENT LADY
15
3
$21
Laming
SPOT ON MAGGIE
16
10
$8
Carey
13/7
B-S6
AZZALAND
26
5
$6
Stephenson
HUCKELBERRY DANE
33
4
$21
Birchley
COMAHNI
14
8
$5.50
Wilson
NEXT THE UNIVERSE
24
1
$12
Lees
TUSKEGEE HAWK
12
1
$17
Treloar
CLANGOR
12
2
$6.50
Smith
MR ORIENT
13
2
$11
Balzen
SPATHA
20
8
$26
Brosnan
IT’S WUNDERBAR
19
11
$101
mead
FIREBOLT
12
13
$14
Wood
GREEN BIRDIE
37
11
$41
Duryea
LISTEN SON
19
12
$16
T. Gollan
JETSET LAD
16
7
$14
Wheeler
MYSTICAL GREY
16
8
$31
Stott
SPECHENKA
12
9
$81
Ahrens
BOOGIE SHOES
21
3
$31
Sargent
FUSIL DE EVE
12
15
$41
McLachlan
S-S6
ACAPELA
17
3
$7
Waller
SARAMENHA
32
8
$26
M. Conners
SWEET LITTLE LIES
18
6
$12
Waller
GIVE MY REGARDS
14
5
$4.20
Waterhouse
WILD AND PROUD
16
3
$12
Pfieffer
CHARING CROSS
13
1
$6
Waterhouse
MR ARMSTRONG
17
7
$7.50
Thompson
VIKING LEGEND
45
6
$18
Simpson
SACRED FLYER
16
2
$4.60
Waller
BEREFT
23
9
$6
Atkins
MARTINVAST
13
5
$7
Ryan
MOTSPUR
13
11
$51
Lees
ABITOFADO
20
13
$201
Gentle
McCLINTOCK
44
10
$51
De Montfort
ALLABOUT GLORY
21
12
$17
Austin
M-D5
JOHANNAPINE
17
11
$7
Webb
SENSATIONAL REPORT
15
7
$41
Wynne
TWO HILLS
30
12
$31
Browell
SLEWSAY
15
13
$101
Laing
UNDERESTIMATION
14
5
$15
Lawson
FUMING
13
11
$51
Mathrick
MONTGOMERY
13
9
$26
Alderson
ULUNDI
18
13
$21
Eden
DARK NOTE
24
14
$61
Houlahan
PALASPORT
13
8
$16
Hickman
MIDNIGHT GLORY
23
3
$5.50
Weir
BUDAI
34
11
$26
Hayes
TANAH LOT
16
12
$10
Little
FABRIANO
13
2
$15
Donnelly
STANZOUT
34
4
$91
Davies
ZAMORAR
13
9
$5
Bourne
HAUSSMANN
14
6
$17
Snowden
MR GRISWOLD
23
12
$21
Ellerton
LORD PYRUS
17
11
$26
Mawer
LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT
19
13
$15
Ellerton
OFFENDERS
28
1
$7.50
Snowden
CELLARMASTER
13
5
$19
Payne
CORVIDAE
20
8
$7
Weir
ALPHA PROXIMA
13
3
$11
Corstens
CORNWALL PARK
37
14
$21
Weir
SOPHROSYNE
25
9
$15
McLean
RED TYPHOON
14
10
$51
Smerdon
20/7
B-H9
DOUBLE IMPACT
17
1
$5
Crompton
DIVINE CITY
12
2
$2
Taylor
DUKE HOUSE
38
3
$15
Bremser
FANCIFUL
22
3
$13
O’Dea
EXPLORE THE WORLD
15
2
$19
Walker
METALLURGICAL
14
7
$9
Thompson
DOUBTFUL JACK
21
5
$9
Schweida
S-S6
FALZZON
14
5
$31
Schmetzer
PRAECIDO
16
10
$31
Payne
BEREFT
23
7
$15
Atkins
KIM WARRIOR
14
9
$51
B. Cummings
FLYING EMPRESS
19
10
$41
Pride
GLIDING
21
7
$13
B. Cummings
OAKFIELD COMET
17
8
$15
D. Smith
BERRIMILLA
12
1
$9
Waller
STAR OF OCTAGONAL
14
7
$41
Howlett
WAZN
17
6
$10
Waller
PRETTY PINS
19
5
$12
Thompson
ILLO
24
4
$8
Waller
WILD AND PROUD
16
8
$41
Pfieffer
WINNING GLORY
13
2
$13
Payne
SACRED FLYER
17
1
$3.50
Waller
EURYALE
12
11
$18
Snowden
VIKING LEGEND
45
7
$31
Simpson
SCOTTISH BORDER
29
12
$15
Frazer
ATOMIC FORCE
18
8
$15
D. Smith
NEWS ALERT
19
2
$16
Moses
KENNY’S WORLD
34
11
$41
Murray
ZARATONE
15
1
$8.50
B. Baker
M-H9
EDGEWOOD
15
6
$8
Griffiths
CHASSE
14
3
$17
Snowden
UNDER THE HAT
17
7
$9
Sadler
NOBLE PARK
15
10
$18
Moroney
CHEVIOT BEACH
17
11
$61
Blackiston
LONDON STRIPE
38
8
$31
Carey
EXCEPTIONALLY
12
11
$12
O’Sullivan
SEA GALLEON
19
9
$15
Alderson
HANKS
16
14
$31
Moody
DARK NOTE
25
13
$41
Houlahan
SUPREMACY
21
7
$31
Cameron
TANAH LOT
16
10
$26
Little
FABRIANO
13
2
$15
Donnelly
CANALI
19
6
$13
S. Brown
WEEKEND SPECIAL
19
1
$21
Petch
ELIZA BLUES
15
5
$8
Waller
27/7
B-D5
RACE OFF
19
6
$15
Heathcote
RAEBURN
31
4
$15
Smith
MALING
19
2
$61
Lawlor
MUSASHI OF MIEKO
13
13
$61
Kemp
REILLY BLUE
19
11
$41
Clarke
CLANGOR
12
15
$6
Smith
PEPPERED BLACK
14
7
$26
May/Smith
CARN
13
1
$61
Johnson
SIR STANLEY
14
5
$21
Baldwin
ROCKSAN
16
8
$9
Edmonds
LADY COLOURS
18
6
$9.50
Hill
FUSIL DE EVE
12
12
$101
McLachlan
S-S6
DAZZLER
14
6
$10
Snowden
WINDSWEPT
13
5
$3.90
Ryan
TOTAL ATTRACTION
18
3
$3.30
Vandyke
LADY LA DOUCE
17
6
$31
Croft
GRIFFON
13
3
$11
Heathcote
MY DESTINY
19
6
$10
Berry
SAINTHOOD
38
4
$31
Worthington
SOLEDAD
12
8
$6.50
Snowden
YULALONA
19
3
$8.50
Snowden
SCOTTISH BORDER
29
4
$21
Frazer
BAG OF NICKELS
19
10
$101
Robinson
ZAKYNTHOS IMPRINTZ
12
13
$16
Nickson
CELTIC FANTASY
19
16
$71
C. Ritchie
HAPPY HUSSY
18
6
$10
Vandyke
McCLINTOCK
45
12
$81
De Montfort
AUSTRALIAN STAR
12
11
$15
McNair
M-D5
UPBEAT
17
7
$11
A. Cummings
LETHAL ARROW
12
8
$8.50
McLean
MIDNIGHT GLORY
24
1
$6.50
Weir
PALASPORT
14
10
$26
Hickman
RED TYPHOON
14
6
$31
Smerdon
KOLONGA
15
6
$26
Ellerton
LADYS ANGEL
15
5
$13
O’Brien
SHE GOES TO RIO
16
10
$14
Weir
SENSATIONAL REPORT
15
11
$101
Wynne
STANZOUT
35
11
$51
Davies
ZAMORAR
14
4
$8
Bourne
LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT
20
11
$31
Ellerton
MR GRISWOLD
23
7
$31
Ellerton
LORD PYRUS
17
14
$31
Mawer
ROCKPECKER
16
9
$21
Fythe
TESTASCANA
23
10
$16
Cerchi
LOOKLOOK
19
13
$101
C. McDonald
So after the first six calendar months of 2013 Saturday metropolitan race meetings in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, a further 207 horses that hadn’t won for 52 weeks or more started during July 2013. Of those 207 horses only 17 or 8.21% won. The 17 that won in this month’s surveyed horses include some real little heartthrobs of the Australian turf. Check out the names of some of these horses and there are sure some “chaffbandits and oxygen thieves” among this group. In date order the 17 were: Dansal, Mic Mac, Eigelstein, Master Harry, Single Style, Magnifique Soleil, Next The Universe, Tuskegee Hawk, Charing Cross, Offenders, Double Impact, Berrimilla, Sacred Flyer, Zaratone, Weekend Special, Carn and Midnight Glory. Mic Mac hadn’t won for a whopping 46 months. As such he has the dubious distinction of being able to win a Saturday city race in any of Brisbane, Sydney or Melbourne with the longest timeframe between wins. When his mother was phoned by Justracing to be advised he’d finally won another race, sadly she wasn’t speaking too highly of her son. “Look he wasn’t a bad kid when he was young. In fact I thought he was going to be a good horse. I taught him how to gallop around a paddock and to stay safe, you know, not going through barbed wire fences and all that, but geez he disappointed me and my family greatly in later life. He’s been around more times than the Ferris Wheel at the Sydney Easter Show and he just couldn’t win another one. In a way I’m glad he won another race, but I feel sad for you because I fancy you bagged the bejesus out of him on your website the night before he won. I can’t blame you for that as I’m his mother and I’d even given up on him. Realistically after 46 months away from the winners list you should be able to bag him. I never backed him either the day he won, but sadly if I’d had a few lousy dollars on him it would have bought me a new rug for winter. I’m freezing my (next word withheld – not a nice word to use on such a revered family website) off in this cold joint, but no one cares about us old sheilas. They all think we are past our use by date. If only they knew.” (That’s a truly heart wrenching story and Justracing will consider sending the poor old dear a new rug, or possibly a boyfriend to keep her warm. Problem is when they get to that age and stage they are understandably a bit standoffish about males.)
If a punter had $1 a win on the 207 “long term losers” that raced in July they’d obviously outlay $207 and the return including their $1 stake back was amazingly $226.80, so a punter would get 109.56% of their outlay back meaning they’d win 9.56% of their stake. A lot of real “rougher than sandpaper” horses won during July 2013 to make that profit situation. Darlings of the turf like Carn (60/1), rip snorters like 20/1 hopes Dansal and Master Harry all saluted during July. Grown men were seen openly weeping after these three little gems won – prompting Justracing to ask the federal government to fund a counsellor at all thoroughbred race meetings, just to try to help out these punters who seemingly see no other way out after a horse like Carn wins. They shouldn’t be forced to leap to their death. They should have options.
So in the six months that this story has been run on Justracing, no fewer than 1241 “long term losers” have run and of the 1241, only 71 have won, which means 5.72% of “long term losers” actually managed to win another Saturday city race, so conversely 94.28% lost, which shows punters what an exercise in futility the practice is.
Across the six months, a $1 win bet on each horse would see 1241 outlaid (113 in January, 125 in February, 156 in March, 154 in April, $240 in May, $246 in June and 207 in July) and the return including their $1 stake would be $730.20 ($48.50 in January, $45.50 in February, $85.00 in March, $84.00 in April, $125.50 in May, $114.90 in June and $226.80 in July, meaning a punter would get back 58.83% of their outlay, so conversely they’d lose 41.17% of their stake.
In the 2013 calendar year-to-date, the Saturday city race in any of Brisbane, Sydney, or Melbourne that had the biggest number of “long term losers” in it, was Race 5 at Flemington on 22/6/13. There were no fewer than 11 horses that jumped from the barriers in that field of 16 that had not won a race for 52 weeks or longer and those 11 horses and the number of months that they had been absent from the winners list were: Extra Zero (14), Utah Saints (14), Magnifique Soleil (13), Rockpecker (15), Testascana (21), By The Way (18), Blackie (27), Dash For Viz (20), Under The Hat (16), Cornwall Park (24), Dark Note (24). So those 11 horses comprised an amazing 68.75% of the 16-horse field, yet the pair that finished up running the quinella didn’t emanate from that huge group of “long term losers” and “non-achievers” – as Club Command won the race and Another Prelate ran second.
Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the story about the only Zabeel mare that has had a runner by Lyndhurst stallion Hidden Dragon, producing the Melbourne middle distance winner from last Saturday – Stable Star. Imagine if that horse had any issues happening in his head he’d have to cop a possible name change to Unstable Star. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s the popular “What’s In A Name” segment from last Saturday’s races along the eastern seaboard, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls looks at the Mount Isa meeting today.