17/07/13
On 30/8/12, I publicly placed on this website the first of what was to be 12 monthly articles proving how financially catastrophic the practice of backing horses resuming from a spell is.
The 10 previous articles, which can all be viewed in date order in the relevant Justracing archives at the far bottom of this web page, contained the results of all the horses that had resumed from a spell in Saturday metropolitan races run in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in the first 10 calendar months of the new racing season. The results that have emanated from the monthly articles have no doubt shocked many industry participants, particularly punters, who formerly may have had no aversion whatsoever to backing horses resuming from a spell. After reading what goes up here monthly on the topic, over the 12-month timeframe, hopefully the end result will be a far more educated and disciplined punter.
Also noted in each article is 1) the track rating that prevailed at the end of the relevant race meeting, as well as 2) the trainer’s name and 3) the placing of the subject horse and 4) the official starting price.
It’s now time to review the June 2013 results from horses that resumed in the three eastern seaboard States of Australia during that month.
Please note that in the below text obviously “B” stands for Brisbane, “S” for Sydney and “M” for Melbourne.
The full list of horses that resumed in Saturday city races for the entire month of June 2013 in those three States reads:
DATE
CITY
HORSE
WKS OFF
PLACING
PRICE
TRAINER
1/6
B-S7
CLASSICS
20
5
$7
Snowden
OUR HUSSEY
21
10
$101
Hill
FERMENT
16
8
$71
Thompson
S-D5
AL NOVA
15
11
$17
Godbolt
RECOINAGE
27
8
$26
Thompson
NOCTURNELLE
12
2
$7
Waller
TROMSO
21
8
$15
Waller
ANGELUS
18
5
$9
Snowden
BERRIMILLA
20
5
$5
Waller
IMELDAMAY
19
10
$6
Curtis
ARMS LENGTH
16
8
$51
Goldman
OAKFIELD COMET
70
9
$17
D. Smith
GLIDING
64
10
$51
B. Cummings
RULE BOOK
36
10
$20
W/house
PLATINUM JACK
16
15
$81
Singleton
8/6
B-D4
MOROCCAN ROSE
23
10
$21
Heinrich
JOLIE MADELEINE
18
8
$31
Cousins
VINTAGE MOSS
17
13
$11
Fitzgerald
S-D4
BIG MEMORY
29
8
$19
McEvoy
RIVER OF SALVATION
19
3
$41
Pfieffer
LEICESTER SQUARE
25
15
$15
Messara
BURBERO
16
7
$5.50
Baker
ROSE OF SCOTLAND
15
5
$41
Lees
NEESON
53
2
$13
Hawkes
CHARING CROSS
22
10
$21
W/house
SAMUI LAD
18
9
$21
W/house
VIKING LEGEND
59
7
$81
Simp/Barnes
M-D5
CROOKHAVEN
20
9
$7.50
Kavanagh
WINTA CHILLER
18
3
$16
Pecora
WRITTEN OFF
40
14
$71
Cozamanis
STREETS OF SEATTLE
14
9
$61
Moloney
DANISH WHISKEY
18
7
$13
Kent
OMINOUS QUALITY
12
10
$7
Bride/Feek
BROKEN
33
3
$13
Weir
SHADOWFAX
33
8
$26
Oliver
DARK NOTE
22
11
$151
Houlahan
UNDER THE HAT
14
4
$21
Sadler
MAGNIFIQUE SOLEIL
51
3
$19
Weir
GREY MONARCH
30
12
$101
Meunier
15/6
B-S7
AQUATOR
13
10
$14
Balzen
MR ORIENT
18
4
$13
Balzen
CAPE KIDNAPPERS
61
1
$1.90
Schweida
TRIPLE SIX
18
16
$41
Pfieffer
S-D5
KONTIKI PARK
31
7
$9
W/house
REUBEN PERCIVAL
17
5
$31
W/house
VELROSSO
30
4
$6
Waller
SESSIONS
23
1
$2.30
Snowden
GOLDEN SUNSHINE
13
3
$10
Worthington
M-D5
RIVER PAGEANT
36
6
$21
Price
SEA LORD
16
4
$4.40
S. Brown
LORD PYRUS
30
7
$31
Mawer
STRADA’S DIAMOND
26
12
$21
Cavanough
THORNY CHICK
45
7
$16
Alderson
SEAGALLEON
38
7
$26
Alderson
HANKS
59
8
$51
Moody
CAPITAL COMMANDER
17
4
$3.60
Olive
GO KATRINA
15
10
$41
Cavanough
MOSSE DIVA
17
8
$8
Hayes
22/6
B-S7
MISS ORIELLE
47
6
$17
Dawson
S-H10
COOL DAYS
19
6
$5
W/house
M-D4
HAUSSMAN
19
8
$11
Snowden
COMMITTED
39
5
$12
Alderson
THE CLEANER
16
1
$7
Burles
MR GRISWOLD
49
8
$81
Ellerton/Zahra
NICHOLLS COURT
41
10
$7
Dickson
INNOCENT LADY
25
7
$31
Lamine
29/6
SC-H9
BOOGIE SHOES
36
5
$6.50
Sergeant
HUCKLEBERRY JANE
18
8
$21
Birchley
NICKIERA
12
7
$31
Thomas
POMPIDOU
30
4
$13
Bennett
TOM’S LUCK
13
2
$12
McLachlan
SMAKATUS
20
1
$13
Duff
FLYING DYNAMITE
15
10
$101
White
M-D5
DENPASAR
19
6
$6.50
Snowden
PRAKTICALITY
17
10
$51
Portelli
EMPEROR’S CHARIOT
29
9
$21
Besanko
OCTAVIA
20
2
$4.60
Moroney
EXCEPTIONALLY
30
8
$21
O’Sullivan
RED TYPHOON
35
13
$71
Smerdon
CLEAR FOR ACTION
87
7
$11
Conlan
It should be noted that during June 2013 partly or fully washed out meetings affected the numbers that resumed from a spell to a major degree and only another 80 horses resumed from a spell across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Saturday city races – and of those 80 horses only 4 (5.00%) won, meaning that in the 11 months to date of the current racing season, a total of 1531 horses have resumed across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Saturday city races and of those 1531 horses only 146.5 have won, which means just 9.56% of horses resuming in a Saturday city race won during the months of August, September, October, November and December 2012 and January, February, March, April, May and June 2103 – so conversely an amazing 90.44% lost.
If a punter had $1 a win on all horses resuming, they would obviously outlay $1531 and they’d get back just $1081.21, so they’d lose 29.38% of their stake. To set the record straight, two roughies won first up in December 2012 which helped the punter’s return figure out tremendously – and they were Jester’s Girl at 40/1 in Brisbane on 1/12/12 and Beltrois at 25/1 in Melbourne on 22/12/12 and another roughie won in January 2013, when $26 hope Frisco Lights won in Brisbane on 19/1/13. In February 2013 a series of roughies won resuming, namely Grey Countess ($17), Alzora ($18) and Mrs Onassis ($16). In May 2013 a 60/1 winner – Primitive Man in Melbourne on 11/5/13 – gave the figures a big boost. No roughies won in June 2013 to help the figures as Caloundra Cup day winner Smakatus at $13 was the roughest of the four winners.
Take a short priced overview of the group of horses resuming and if a punter had $1 a win on every horse that jumped at a starting price of $4 inclusive or less, there were 124 horses in that category, season-to-date, so a punter would obviously outlay $124 and the return would have been $112.01, so a punter would lose on this strategy also – and the financial loss would only be 9.67%. In the month of June 2013 of the three horses resuming that started $4 or under, two (66.66%) won (Cape Kidnappers $1.90 and Sessions $2.30).
In the racing season-to-date, the shortest priced horse resuming from a spell that got beaten was the Joe Pride trained Sydney sprinter Rain Affair at $1.50. That horse ran fourth at Warwick Farm to stablemate Tiger Tees on 8/9/12.
In the racing season-to-date, the best training performance has undoubtedly been by Brisbane’s Kelso Wood, as he trained Benny’s Buttons to win on 11/5/13 after 97 weeks off. The next best effort in the racing season-to-date was by another Brisbane based trainer, Kelly Schweida, who trained Cape Kidnappers to win on Ipswich Cup day (15/6/13) after 61 weeks off. Next was Robbie Griffiths who trained Beltrois to win first up at Flemington on 22/12/12 after 59 weeks off. The fourth best effort in the racing season-to-date was by Rick Hore-Lacy who produced Chase The Rainbow to win at Caulfield on 1/9/12 after 47 weeks off. The only other three trainers who have trained a Saturday city winner that hadn’t started for at least 40 weeks – were Jason Coyle who trained Lady Be Great to win first up after 46 weeks at Warwick Farm on 1/12/12, Leon Corstens who trained Tokugawa to win at Moonee Valley on 4/8/12 after 45 weeks off and Liam Birchley who trained Emmalene to win after 40 weeks off at Eagle Farm on 30/3/13.
In Brisbane only 31 of 358 first-up horses have won in the season-to-date, which means 8.65% have won – and conversely 91.35% have been beaten.
In Sydney 49 of 517 horses resuming to the end of June 2013 have won, which means 9.47% have won – and conversely 90.53% have been beaten.
In Melbourne 51.5 horses (includes Puissance De Lune’s dead-heat half a win from March 2013) from the 605 that have resumed to the end of June 2013 have won, meaning an abysmal 8.51% have won, or conversely 91.49% have been beaten.
In the racing season-to-date the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where the group resuming provided the winner was on 16/3/13 at Warwick Farm in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes where 10 horses resumed – Hay List, Temple Of Boom, Atomic Force, Decision Time, Tiger Tees, Second Effort, Howmuchdoyouloveme, Fire Thunderbolt, Snitzerland and Single Style – and Snitzerland won the race as the $3.30 favourite.
In the racing season-to-date the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where that group of horses didn’t provide the winner was at Flemington on 8/9/12 in the Cap D’Antibes Stakes when seven horses resumed – Affable, Molto Bene, Armed For Action, Sabie, Donna Cattiva, Dazzler, All About The Coin – but 25/1 chance Members Joy won the race easily.
So Justracing can reveal that backing horses resuming from a spell is an absolute and utter waste of money, as even in the season-to-date, 18 of the 146.5 winners (12.28%) started at odds-on, so 18 horses weren’t even betting propositions, because of the odds-on factor. As a matter of interest, Cape Kidnappers ($1.90) was the only horse to resume at an odds-on quote during June 2013 and he was successful at Ipswich on their Cup day – 15/6/13.
Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the second montage of photos from Doomben last Saturday, plus others of interest, like how Gold Coast couple John and Helen Page looked in 1986. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s the next in the popular What’s In A Name segment from last Saturday’s races, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls looks at the Victorian racing scene.