BACKING LONG TERM LOSERS IS A QUICK WAY TO THE POOR HOUSE….Part 4

12/06/13

On 7/2/2013 I penned the first of what will be 12 monthly stories proving that backing horses that haven’t won a race anywhere for the last 52 weeks or more, when those horses are contesting Saturday city races – is simply a quick way for a punter to lose their hard earned moola.

To have any remote chance of winning whilst punting over the course of a calendar year, punters need to establish some rules to abide by. Those rules may be to 1) not to back odds-on favourites, 2) not to bet on slow or heavy tracks, 3) not to back horses resuming from a spell, 4) not to back horses from certain overrated stables, etcetera.

Avoiding backing horses in Saturday city races that haven’t won in the last 52 weeks is a good rule to implement into one’s punting strategy as I’ll prove conclusively in those 12 articles that will go up publicly during this calendar year. Like any other rule of punting, the odd one will win, but not enough will win to make you ever consider changing the rule once it’s been invoked.

The three previous stories that I penned on the subject on from January 2013, February 2013 and March 2013 can be read by clicking HEREHERE and HERE.

Today I look back on “long term losers” that raced in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne Saturday races during the month of April 2013 and you’ll see a few familiar names that you regularly 1) hear the “experts” tip and/or that 2) ill-informed punters back. The track rating at the end of the meeting is listed in the report along with the number of months since the horse has won, along with the name of the trainer, the placing it ran on the day and the official starting price.

DATE

CITY

HORSE

WON

PLACING

PRICE

TRAINER

6/4

B-S7

GUNNER KNOX

17

3

$7.50

L. May/Smith

 

 

EMVOSS

15

5

$6

Edmonds

 

 

DUSTY GOLD

17

3

$6.50

Dunn

 

 

AROUND THE WORLD

13

5

$15

Hanna

 

 

KNEELING

19

7

$5

Thompson

 

 

PONZI SCHEME

14

8

$51

Kropp

 

 

DOUBTFUL JACK

17

6

$6

Schweida

 

 

WARRIOR WITHIN

17

12

$51

Hill

 

 

SKATING ON ICE

14

3

$4.60

L. Kelly

 

 

PROST

15

7

$11

Thompson

 

 

FANTISHA

12

6

$9

O’Dea

 

S-S7

SINGLE

12

6

$15

Carmody

 

 

STRIKE THE STARS

18

5

$12

A. Cummings

 

 

DRIEFONTEIN

13

6

$12

Waterhouse

 

 

MALUCKYDAY

29

6

$9

Hawkes

 

 

SECRET ADMIRER

17

4

$17

Begg

 

 

SHANNARA

16

10

$81

Snowden

 

 

RELIABLE MAN

18

6

$51

Waller

 

 

HAPPY ZERO

24

12

$81

Hawkes

 

 

HOT SNITZEL

13

(1)

$15

Ryan

 

 

RAREFIED

43

4

$21

Snowden

 

 

WILD AND PROUD

12

13

$21

Pfieffer

 

 

LADYS ANGEL

23

10

$10

Pride

 

M-G3

BLUE RIBBON

12

2

$4.40

Little

 

 

CRIMSON LADY

12

9

$7.50

Moroney

 

 

APPLEBOTTOM

26

8

$301

Stennett

 

 

GOLD MEDALS

12

(1)

$8.50

Wilde

 

 

BIG CHILL

12

6

$10

Ellerton

 

 

MACEDONIAN

28

9

$7

Moody

 

 

I’M JAKE

17

4

$16

Brideoake

 

 

GOTTA KEEP COOL

19

10

$51

Weir

 

 

UNCHAIN MY HEART

14

3

$9

Hayes

 

 

OVER QUOTA

12

8

$12

Webb

 

 

ITS PRINCE

16

6

$51

Griffiths

 

 

PERTURBO

20

10

$14

Alderson

 

 

GO THE KNUCKLE

12

2

$10

Smerdon

 

 

SPEEDINESS

13

6

$12

Scott

 

 

McCLINTOCK

41

12

$6

De Montfort

13/4

 

VOILA ICI

22

16

$61

Moody

 

 

CLASS IS CLASS

20

8

$31

Waller

 

 

BEATEN UP

17

11

$7

Waller

 

 

ILLO

21

3

$41

Waller

 

 

MAULES CREEK

12

12

$31

Thompson

 

 

LESS IS MORE

12

14

$21

Vandyke

 

 

SATIN SHOES

17

13

$26

C. Conners

 

 

ALTAR

24

8

$15

Snowden

 

 

KARUTA QUEEN

17

10

$12

Moody

 

 

LADYS ANGEL

23

9

$15

Pride

 

 

FORFEITURE

12

15

$21

Snowden

 

 

HAY LIST

13

10

$41

McNair

 

 

RAIN AFFAIR

12

4

$51

Pride

 

 

DECISION TIME

19

6

$101

C. Conners

 

 

ATOMIC FORCE

15

9

$201

D. Smith

 

 

TITLE

12

8

$151

Pride

 

 

ONTHELOOKOUT

13

11

$401

Joseph

 

M-G3

FORMIDABLE

14

7

$16

Ellerton/Za

 

 

BIG CHILL

12

6

$11

Ellerton/Za

 

 

MAMA’S CHOICE

14

10

$26

Hayes

 

 

MALUTI

16

5

$14

Snowden

 

 

LARISTAN

25

11

$51

Hayes

 

 

MUIRFIELD

13

11

$21

Moroney

 

 

WINTER KING

31

9

$15

S. Brown

 

 

THAT’S THE ONE

13

2

$9

Alderson

 

 

DASH FOR VIZ

17

6

$26

Griffith

 

 

DECIRCLES

18

3

$5.50

O’Brien

 

 

LIVIGNO

12

5

$21

Fliedner

 

 

DOWAGER QUEEN

19

13

$41

Moody

 

 

LITTLE BRO

12

4

$9

Sadler

20/4

B-S6

PROST

16

3

$10

Thompson

 

 

KAR MA TE

16

9

$31

Laming

 

 

COUNT ENCOSTA

36

6

$8.50

Thompson

 

 

ZA MAGIC

12

5

$26

Smith

 

 

FANTISHA

13

(1)

$17

O’Dea

 

 

NEVER FORGET

19

10

$26

Heathcote

 

 

WARRIOR WITHIN

18

14

$101

Hill

 

 

MAURY

12

9

$21

Thompson

 

 

GREEN BIRDIE

35

10

$31

Duryea

 

 

MUIR

25

17

$101

T. Miller

 

 

BORDER REBEL

13

4

$15

Grills

 

 

LATIN NEWS

35

7

$26

Dais

 

 

UTAH SAINTS

12

2

$13

Stanley

 

 

MEET GEORGE

12

5

$31

Smith

 

 

MR ARMSTRONG

14

11

$21

Thompson

 

 

PANE IN THE GLASS

20

3

$12

Thompson

 

 

EVER THE SAME

12

9

$4.60

A. Cummings

 

S-H9

RED SHIFT

14

8

$11

Carey

 

 

HURRARA

13

5

$8

Frazer

 

 

POTIONS

24

3

$17

Thompson

 

 

FIBRILLATION

12

2

$8

Martin

 

 

MAULES CREEK

13

4

$8.50

Thompson

 

 

GLASS HARMONIUM

17

14

$51

Moroney

 

 

ETHIOPIA

12

17

$21

Carey

 

 

SECRET ADMIRER

18

8

$20

Begg

 

 

MONTON

16

16

$51

Quinton

 

 

STRIKE THE STARS

19

12

$101

A. Cummings

 

 

HOME ON A WING

20

9

$91

A. Cummings

 

M-D5

SPOT ON MAGGIE

13

2

$12

Carey

 

 

C’EST LA GUERRE

30

10

$101

Hawkes

 

 

AMAETHON

12

7

$10

Ellerton

 

 

MAREEZA

12

3

$12

Moody

 

 

FORMIDABLE

15

4

$21

Ellerton

 

 

SPEEDINESS

14

(1)

$10

Scott

 

 

OFFENDERS

26

5

$6

Snowden

27/4

B-G3

DUSTY GOLD

18

4

$21

Dunn

 

 

VESPER

26

13

$151

Jacobs

 

 

RAEBURN

28

6

$101

B. Smith

 

 

DALZAR

27

10

$31

Duryea

 

 

GUNNER KNOX

18

8

$8

L. May/Smith

 

 

KNEELING

19

14

$21

Thompson

 

 

BAQABA

34

13

$101

Tregea

 

 

G’DAY OLD MATE

12

5

$12

Squair

 

 

ROCKER

12

8

$4.80

Schweida

 

 

SILVER BULLION

26

6

$21

Heathcote

 

 

SPIRIT OF FLATLEY

14

7

$26

Wood

 

 

NOOGOORA BURR

16

14

$41

Lawlor

 

 

TEMPLE OF BOOM

12

7

$15

T. Gollan

 

 

SPIRIT OF BOOM

15

2

$9

T. Gollan

 

 

LISTEN SON

17

4

$61

T. Gollan

 

 

NEW DAY RISING

15

(1)

$5

Pfieffer

 

 

AROUND THE WORLD

14

5

$31

Hanna

 

S-G3

DRIEFONTEIN

14

6

$3.70

Waterhouse

 

 

SILK PINS

17

10

$15

Waller

 

 

SAY NO MORE

12

9

$10

Waller

 

 

SHANNARA

17

8

$11

Snowden

 

 

FLORIA

13

2

$31

McKee

 

 

MANIGHAR

12

7

$21

Moody

 

 

RELIABLE MAN

19

(1)

$12

Waller

 

 

GLASS HARMONIUM

18

8

$26

Moroney

 

 

SECRET ADMIRER

18

5

$21

Begg

 

 

MALUCKYDAY

29

7

$5.50

Hawkes

 

 

MACEDONIAN

30

5

$41

Moody

 

 

RANGIRANGDOO

24

5

$26

Waller

 

 

RAIN AFFAIR

12

2

$11

Pride

 

 

SMOKIN’ JOEY

12

8

$61

Price

 

 

MANAWANUI

18

5

$11

Lemon

 

 

DECISION TIME

20

6

$4.60

C. Conners

 

 

MASTER HARRY

24

11

$31

Quinton

 

 

TITLE

13

4

$16

Pride

 

 

RAREFIED

44

(1)

$8

Snowden

 

 

SOMEPIN ANYPIN

17

7

$8

Waterhouse

 

 

STRATANA

17

14

$41

Sargent

 

 

RENEWED VITALITY

19

13

$26

Thompson

 

M-D4

BLUE RIBBON

12

9

$3.20

Little

 

 

TWIN SOUL

25

3

$7

Kent

 

 

BIG CHILL

12

5

$10

Ellerton

 

 

GREAT PLAYER

19

9

$101

Craven

 

 

DOWAGER QUEEN

19

8

$31

Moody

 

 

HARRY TRIMBOLE

213

3

$9

Kent

 

 

DE FINE LAGO

40

5

$151

Vasil

 

 

ABSALON

22

7

$10

S. Kavanagh

 

 

LITTLE BRO

12

2

$14

Sadler

 

 

QUEEN DELIGHT

18

7

$21

Harrison

 

 

UMGETON

26

(1)

$8.50

Hearps

 

 

DASHING SHADOW

12

9

$101

Johnson

 

So after the first three months of surveyed Saturday metropolitan racing in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne (January 2013, February 2013 and March 2013), a further 154 horses that hadn’t won for 52 weeks or more started during April 2013. Of those 154 horses only 8 or 5.19% won. The 8 that won in this month’s surveyed horses were Hot Snitzel, Gold Medals, Fantisha, Speediness, New Day Rising, Reliable Man, Rarefied and Umgeton.

If a punter had $1 a win on the 154 “long term losers” that raced in April they’d obviously outlay $154 and the return including their $1 stake back was $84.00, so a punter would get 54.54% of their outlay back meaning they’d lose 45.46% of their stake.

So in the four months that this story has been run on Justracing, no fewer than 548 “long term losers” have run and of the 548, only 29 have won, which means 5.29% of “long term losers” actually managed to win another Saturday city race, so conversely 94.71% lost, which shows punters what an exercise in futility the practice is.

Across the three months, a $1 win bet on each horse would see $548 outlaid (113 in January, 125 in February, 156 in March and 154 in April) and the return including their $1 stake would be $263 ($48.50 in January, $45.50 in February, $85.00 in March and $84.00 in April) so a punter would get back 47.99% of their outlay, so conversely they’d lose 52.01% of their stake.

Re the Ipswich weather before Cup day on Saturday we got another 5mm of rain overnight, meaning we’ve had 31mm between Monday and this morning at 7am and more rain is predicted this afternoon. I can’t vouch for what the race club has had – but the rain seemed very general. The day has dawned a real pea-souper, with the biggest and thickest fog you’ve ever seen, except for Toowoomba where visibilty can get down to virtually zero in a big fog.

Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there is the second big montage of photos from Stradbroke day last Saturday. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s another in the popular What’s In A Name segment, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls is a bit fired up over bookies percentages.

Stay up to date with the latest racing news
Follow our social accounts to get exclusive content and all the latest racing news!