14/03/13
It’s fair to say that the two major Australian bloodstock sales companies – Gold Coast based Magic Millions and Sydney based Inglis – are pretty well connected. In the incestuous world of thoroughbred breeding there are obviously a lot of media hangers-on across all avenues of the media which ensures that all the positive stories that Magic Millions and Inglis want aired about a yearling sale topper, or a cheap buy that turned out to be a Group 1 winner and the like, all get out to the public via newspapers, or on to racing and/or commercial television stations, or find their way on to some racing websites. Personally I would never stoop so low as to get involved in such nonsense and in fact I’ve bought Magic Millions to public account here for many years over what any half decent human being would deem “unethical practices”.
In respect of the two companies core business of selling thoroughbreds, I must say that I can see some sense in buying a luxury apartment somewhere around the Australian coastline on a nice beach with associated Pacific Ocean views for about a million bucks, but I’ve never seen – nor will I ever see – an unraced yearling thoroughbred that would be worth spending that ludicrous amount of money on, yet annually plenty of people turn up at yearling sales and happily part with what I’d call “utterly obscene amounts of money” for some equine athlete, without having the slightest clue as to whether the subject yearling will run as fast as lightning, or as slow as a wet week, or somewhere in between those two extremes.
Historically one of the biggest spenders at the “premier” yearling sales at both Magic Millions Gold Coast and Inglis Sydney sales is alleged “champion” trainer Gai Waterhouse, the so called “first lady of racing”.
As per the proof derived from the photo above, Gai Waterhouse has been buying yearlings for so long that she’d have to be right on top of her game in that field you’d think. Surely by now she’d be an “expert” at selecting yearlings. Well that’s the perception most of the public probably has of her as she seems to get plenty of people who are happy to part with big sums of money to get a share in a yearling that she buys. To be fair and balanced, the odd yearling she buys may grow up to be called Pierro and go okay. Pierro of course won the Sydney 2YO Triple Crown last year, but the other side of the equation I guess is “if anybody from Gai Waterhouse to the bloke up the corner shop bought enough expensive and well bred yearlings you couldn’t help but eventually fluke one or two good ones”.
So what I decided to do was go back to previous yearling sales where the yearlings bought in the name of Gai Waterhouse have now had a chance to have had a pretty full racing career to see how she goes when she basically spends other people’s money on yearlings.
To that end here are the yearlings Gai Waterhouse bought in her name at the January 2009 select Magic Millions Gold Coast Sale, along with the horses purchase price, subsequent racing name and racetrack performance up to and including Tuesday 12 March 2013. I’d like to be able put a lot of additional information below, like say the vendor, the subject yearling’s breeding, etcetera, but only so much will fit on a web page, so I’ve cut to the chase with just the important details.
The list of yearlings bought by Gai Waterhouse in the January 2009 Magic Millions Gold Coast sale reads:
LOT
RACING NAME
PRICE
R/TRACK STARTS
(Starts – 1st-2nd-3rd)
P/MONEY TO 12/3/13
PROFIT/LOSS
2
Golden Shooter
300,000
8-3-1-0
155,350
-144,650
11
Chinkara Dancer
60,000
2-0-0-0
700
-59,300
48
From London
330,000
34-5-4-1
121,290
–208,710
59
Silent Reward
200,000
10-3-1-0
64,040
-135,960
67
Cinderella’s Secret
160,000
17-1-2-3
36,085
-123,915
82
Rock To The Left
190,000
1-0-0-0
0
-190,000
119
Toolbag
1,000,000
16-2-0-2
21,840
-978,160
127
Royal Battalion
2,000,000
1-0-0-0
0
-2,000,000
164
French Charge
180,000
21-3-1-4
56,360
-123,640
179
Botticelli Angel
200,000
4-0-1-0
5,625
-194,375
183
She’s A Sure Thing
45,000
4-0-0-0
700
-44,300
191
April In Venice
180,000
7-1-1-0
34,830
-145,170
232
Sfera
50,000
11-1-0-1
15,030
-34,970
361
Rocketing
220,000
2-0-1-0
2,800
-217,200
464
Mussabini
90,000
0
0
-90,000
466
Fast Clip
180,000
26-6-4-3
502,030
+322,030
470
Jet Rider
150,000
0
0
-150,000
508
Prince Siam
60,000
0
0
-60,000
545
Mate
200,000
0
0
-200,000
547
Not Bad
150,000
6-0-1-0
2,500
-147,500
569
Extreme Mover
70,000
44-7-4-4
152,250
+82,250
588
Bright Expectations
150,000
12-2-1-0
289,800
+139,800
596
Rock Haven
65,000
5-0-1-0
6,480
-58,520
603
Moon Lake
250,000
2-0-0-0
0
-250,000
608
Rardane
140,000
1-0-0-0
700
-139,300
619
Laduni
170,000
23-6-7-2
83,587
–86,413
650
Kezzabelle
100,000
9-1-1-0
15,800
-84,200
676
Tabassi
140,000
17-4-3-2
41,950
–98,050
TOTALS
7,030,000
283-45-34-22
1,609,747
-5,420,253
Please note according to official Stud Book records, Golden Shooter (above) was exported to Macau on 6/12/11 and Bright Expectations (above) was exported to Hong Kong on 16/5/11, so their statistics and prizemoney are noted only for the relevant period when Gai Waterhouse trained each horse.
Obviously the profit/loss figure stated above is based solely on the purchase price and importantly not so much as one solitary dollar of expenses is included in that figure. Those relevant expenses not included in the above figures would reasonably be deemed to be such as 1) training fees, 2) spelling, 3) insurance, 4) transport costs, 5) vet costs, 6) paying up of the said yearling for any sales related bonus races that both Magic Millions run for sales graduates only, 7) any add-on to the purchase price by any party when the yearling is syndicated, etcetera. In a document, part of which I will reproduce next week on this website, it is claimed that Gai Waterhouse way back in “2009” required “$18,000” per year to train a 2YO if that 2YO is in work for just six months of the 12 months in a calendar year – and that document further advised that a buyer needs to allow “$24,000” for Waterhouse to train a 3YO if the 3YO is in work for eight of the 12 months in a calendar year. Gai Waterhouse may also get paid a “yearling selection fee” – which is obviously a type of consultancy fee – of some thousands of dollars for her time and expertise in selecting yearlings for another party and/or parties to buy at a yearling sale.
A summary of the statistics of these 28 aforesaid yearling purchases to 12/3/13 reads:
Total amount paid for the 28 yearlings
$7,030,000
Average price per yearling of the 28 yearlings
$251,071
Total earnings to 12/3/2013 of the 28 yearlings
$1,609,747
Average earnings per yearling of the 28 yearlings
$57,491
Average wins per yearling of the 28 yearlings
1.6
No of yearlings that won more p/money than their purchase price
3 of 28
% of yearlings that won more p/money than their purchase price
10.71%
No of yearlings that lost money on their purchase price
25 of 28
% of yearlings that lost money on their purchase price
89.29%
Total dollar loss on purchase price only as at 12/3/13
$5,420,253
% that the loss ($5,420,253) represents of total purchase price ($7,030,000)
77.10%
So from the aforesaid statistics, I’ll leave it to you to work out if Gai Waterhouse was subsequently proven by the passage of time to have a great eye for a yearling in January 2009 at Magic Millions on the Gold Coast, whether she paid a measly $45,000 for her lowest priced Magic Millions yearling that grew up to be called the positively named She’s A Sure Thing, which earned the princely sum of $700, or whether she bought the crème de la crème blueblood yearling of the sale for $2 million, subsequently calling him Royal Battalion, then watched as he never earned a solitary dollar out on the racetrack of dreams. Coolmore Stud, the vendor of the Encosta de Lago ex Surrealist yearling colt (Royal Battalion) that Waterhouse paid $2 million for, would no doubt have been laughing all the way to the bank.
That someone as experienced and high profile as Gai Waterhouse could lose an incredible 77.10% of the $7,030,000 that was outlaid at the 2009 Magic Millions premier sale will no doubt shock many people. That thought also reinforces what I have written here for years, which is that the dictionary meaning of the word “stupidity” should be changed to simply read “attend a thoroughbred yearling sale, keep your hands in your pockets and simply observe”.
I’m currently researching Gai Waterhouse’s yearling purchases from the 2010 Magic Millions sale and the 2009 and 2010 Inglis premier sales and will put those results up publicly when they are done, but from preliminary work I’ve done I doubt the statistics will change too dramatically.
If I get a chance I’ll also do the same exercise for Star Thoroughbreds who give their horses to Gai Waterhouse to train. We regularly hear what a success story both Gai Waterhouse and Star Thoroughbreds are. I wonder do the factual statistics when researched, back that thought up. Think I’d best check.
Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the second big montage of photos from racing around South East Queensland in the last seven days. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s the story on all the action that will be happening Saturday at the big Young harness meeting, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls looks at Tony Bird’s thoughts as John Wheeler heads to Oakbank yet again in 2013.
