20/04/16

An interesting topic that gets written about very rarely in thoroughbred racing media circles, to help educate punters, relates to the weight that a horse gets handicapped with. Punters and all the “experts” that hand out tips like an asparagus factory, rarely take a second glance at how much weight a horse gets in a race. They concentrate on the horse’s form and/or track rating or whatever. Yet in my 47 years of following thoroughbred racing I’ve noticed one very important point about thoroughbreds and that is “some horses can carry weight and others can’t”.

With the increase in minimum weights in the modern day “can my horse carry its allotted weight” is surely an important question. To that end, last Saturday along the eastern seaboard in metropolitan class races, the minimum ranged between 54kgs and 56kgs at Randwick, depending on the race. At Caulfield the minimum was anywhere between 54kgs and a much higher 58kgs, again depending on the race, whilst last Saturday’s main Queensland race meeting was at Toowoomba where the feature race was the Weetwood Handicap and on that day the limit weight was either 54kgs or 55kgs across the eight races.

I used some reference books that I have here to go back in time and check the minimum weights of yesteryear as compared to the present day and used the 2002/2003 racing season as the barometer for the comparison.

So 13 years ago when the Ron Maund trained, Jim Byrne ridden Ceffyl won the Weetwood Handicap in Toowoomba at 14/1 on 27/3/2003, the minimum weight was 52kgs, this year it was 54kgs for that race, so it’s jumped 2kgs in 13 years.

Last Saturday at Randwick the Hall Mark Stakes was run and won by Music Magnate. In 2016 the limit in that race was 56kgs. When the 2003 version of that race was run on 26/4/2003 and won by the Casey Ward trained, Dan Nikolic ridden Polygram, the limit weight was 54.5kgs, which means in 13 years the limit weight on that race has gone up 1.5kgs.

There are all sorts of weight factors that get introduced across certain types of races. For instance a plethora of upcoming races in the Brisbane Winter Carnival have a “maximum topweight of 61kgs” and four in four consecutive weeks are the Bribie Handicap on 30/4/16 at Doomben, Prime Ministers Cup at the Gold Coast on 7/5/16, Members’ Handicap at Doomben on 14/5/16 and the Bright Shadow Handicap on 21/5/16 at Doomben.

Then there are weight-for-age races, where the horses are weighted on their age and gender and the hemisphere they are born in, whilst their form or overall racetrack CV will have nothing to do with the weight they get apportioned, so for instance a 4YO Class 1 horse trained at Boulia would get the exact same weight as Group 1 winner Kermadec got last Saturday in the All Aged Stakes.

And on that point, weight-for-age (WFA) races are surely the classic example of horses not being able to carry weight. One only has to cast their mind back to the All Aged Stakes last Saturday at Randwick to see evidence of a horse that “on the balance of probability” simply can’t carry weight. Malaguerra’s weight at WFA in the All Aged Stakes was 59kgs and it’s history now that he went like a crippled soldier crab, as whilst he’d won handicap races impressively at his previous four starts with 55.5kgs, 54kgs, 54.5kgs and 57.5kgs, jumping from 57.5kgs to 59kgs and from Group 3 class at his previous run to a Group 1 event like the All Aged Stakes was seemingly a bridge too far. History may well prove that Malaguerra is indeed a Group 1 handicapper, capable of winning a Stradbroke Handicap or an Emirates, or an Epsom, but he certainly doesn’t look like a Group 1 WFA horse after his last start.

And somewhat interestingly, the seed for today’s story was planted – and subsequently germinated in my mind – by Malaguerra’s stablemate Santa Ana Lane. Five races before the All Aged Stakes last Saturday, Santa Ana Lane stepped out in Race 2 at Randwick and got beaten as the heavily backed favourite, at a starting price of even money.

To my way of thinking – importantly before the race and not after it – Santa Ana Lane had one major problem yet “experts” and many punters seemingly didn’t even bother looking at his CV. Below is that particular race re-visited, using the weight each four placegetters had been handicapped with last Saturday, as opposed to the weight that he or she carried to victory in their entire racetrack career to that point.

HORSE/WEIGHT LAST SAT

(A)

HIGHEST WEIGHT WON WITH

(B)

DIFF A TO B

PLACING LAST

SATURDAY

Ammirata – 59.5kgs

58.5

+1

1

Alart – 58kgs

59.5

-1.5

2

Santa Ana Lane – 60.5kgs

57

+3.5

3

Rock Forthe Ladies – 61kgs

61

NIL

4

 

So this table of the first four horses home in this seemingly high weight scale race showed how Santa Ana Lane was trying to drill for oil where it hadn’t been found before as the other three that finished around him had proven they could carry weight.

 

Just to confirm that I potted Santa Ana Lane to my Saturday Morning Mail clients, this is what I wrote of his chances and my clients were tipped the winner of that race as one of two bets to have in the event (paid $10.60 on a “best of three totes” basis), simply because of her proven ability in the past to carry weight and as you can see from the above first four home, the duo best advantaged under my weight research ran the Quinella.

 

The Saturday Morning Mail Santa Ana Lane comment read:

SANTA ANA LANE

Has won three of six career starts but has never won with more than 57kgs, so he has to lump 3.5kgs more than he’s ever won with to get home and he’s extremely short in the market when trying to attempt such a feat.

 

Then apart from races with a maximum topweight of say 61kgs as advised earlier, weight-for-age races and normal handicap races, there are also “set weights” races, set weights with penalties races, set weights Plate races, races where females get a couple of kilos weight advantage over their male rivals, such as the Golden Slipper and a myriad of other feature 2YO and 3YO races. Then there are “Benchmark” races where a better performed horse can nominate for a low Benchmark race, but the contra will be that he or she will be penalised by the handicapper accordingly and so on and so forth. So as a punter, one has to then determine if that highly weighted horse in that low-class Benchmark event is going to be capable of lumping its big impost to victory.

 

So it’s my considered opinion that punters need to be far more aware of researching whether a horse like Santa Ana Lane is going to be capable of carrying 60.5kgs to victory in a Saturday city race before they back him off the map into even money and see the weight stop him in the last 100 metres. And it’s a very easy topic to research, as one just has to look at the weight the subject horse has carried to victory in the past. My recommendation is to “be very wary if he or she hasn’t won with very close to that weight in the past, as the horse will be drilling for oil where oil has never been found before” and in punting that is a perfect recipe for a financial tear up.