EXCLUSIVE: JUST DAYS OUT FROM THE MAGIC MILLIONS QTIS SALE LET ME RESEARCH QUEENSLAND STALLIONS

17/03/16

With a heavily advertised Magic Millions QTIS yearling sale on at the Gold Coast about to happen over two days next week – Monday and Tuesday – I couldn’t think of a more opportune time than today to do some exclusive, time consuming, but quality research, for valued website visitors looking at whether Queensland thoroughbred sires can cut the mustard, or whether they are an ordinary bunch.

A seed for this article germinated in my mind last Sunday morning when I heard host Steve Hawkins on his weekly thoroughbred breeding show last Sunday morning note that, Jet Spur is “a breed-shaper sire.” I must admit that I nearly ran off the road and hit a big gum tree, probably from shock, so I thought I’d better check on Jet Spur’s statistics as I’ve obviously missed the day he became a “breed shaper sire”. I remember stallions like Northern Dancer, Mr Prospector and Danehill being “a breed shaper sire” but never thought of Queensland’s Jet Spur was one. So even a dummy like I can learn so much by just listening to – and reading – mainstream media. His stakeswinners-to-runners ratio below, certainly aren’t those of a “breed shaper sire” but what would I know?

As a pre-cursor to this article, some months ago, on 23/12/15 to be exact, I penned a story entitled: “Exclusive: Queensland Thoroughbred Stallions Pathetic 2YO Results Season-To-Date,” then on 4/2/16, I put up an article on this website entitled: “Exclusive: Queensland Bred Stallions – Are They Shaping Up?” – and in that article the results of all Saturday city 2YO races that had been run and won in South-East Queensland were researched and displayed publicly for races run up to and including the Doomben meeting 30/1/16.

So just to recap, my research in those first two articles revealed that up to and including the 30/1/16 Doomben meeting, there had been 195 two-year-olds start in Brisbane Saturday races (122 of the first thread below and 73 on the second thread below) and of those 195 two-year-olds, some 93 (57 first thread plus 36 second thread) – or 47.69% of all starters – were sired by stallions that were domiciled in Queensland at the time of the mare’s conception. Conversely that means 52.31% of all starters were by stallions domiciled outside of Queensland.

The first two articles on this topic can be read on these two threads:

https://www.justracing.com.au/index.php?news_page=4&artid=4984&catid=52

https://www.justracing.com.au/index.php?news_page=2&artid=5010&catid=52

So today let’s continue on with how Queensland based stallions are going up to and including last Saturday’s Gold Coast “Saturday city meeting”. I need to therefore research Saturday race meetings since 30/1/16, namely 6/2, 13/2, 20/2, 27/2 and 5/3, which were all held at Doomben and 12/3, which was run at the Gold Coast. So here are the full results for those six Saturdays.

Date

Horse

Placing

Sire

Qld.

Other

6/2/16

Gracefully Chic

1

Wicked Style

Y

N

 

Fallen For You

2

Show A Heart

Y

N

 

Butter Toast

3

Written Tycoon

Y

N

 

Venetian Beauty

4

Rothesay

Y

N

 

Yeezy

5

Husson

N

Y

 

Drummle

6

Wicked Style

Y

N

 

You’re So Vain

7

Denman

N

Y

13/2/16

Two Shoes

1

Jet Spur

Y

N

 

Red Handle

2

Not A Single Doubt

N

Y

 

Royal Hussy

3

Reaan

N

Y

 

Dave’s Valor

4

Ad Valorem

N

Y

 

Itz Alrite

5

Snitzel

N

Y

 

Mishani Sleuth

6

Falvelon

Y

N

 

Damn Fine

7

Choisir

N

Y

 

Prince of Flinders

8

Drumbeats

Y

N

 

Mutual Agreement

9

Real Saga

Y

N

 

Mr Adjudicator

10

Court Command

Y

N

20/2/16

Itz Alrite

1

Snitzel

N

Y

 

Royal Tithe

2

Show A Heart

Y

N

 

Money Talk

3

Choisir

N

Y

 

Gracefully Chic

4

Wicked Style

Y

N

 

Invinciboy

5

I Am Invincible

N

Y

 

Stryking Stunnah

6

Stryker

N

Y

 

Airlie Reward

7

Reward For Effort

N

Y

 

Mishani Sleuth

8

Falvelon

Y

N

 

Venetian Beauty

9

Rothesay

Y

N

 

Butter Toast

10

Written Tycoon

Y

N

27/2/16

Happy Event

1

Dream Ahead

N

Y

 

Oink

2

Sebring

N

Y

 

Red Handle

3

Not A Single Doubt

N

Y

 

Thunder Raider

4

Dr Green

Y

N

 

Shoneck Affair

5

Mossman

N

Y

 

Two Shoes

6

Jet Spur

Y

N

 

Fatal Rendezvous

7

All American

N

Y

 

Scalped

8

Tickets

N

Y

 

Capo Di Tutti

9

Written Tycoon

Y

N

5/3/16

Royal Tithe

1

Show A Heart

Y

N

 

Stryking Stunnah

2

Stryker

N

Y

 

Royal Hussy

3

Reann

N

Y

 

Money Talk

4

Choisir

N

Y

 

Damn Fine

5

Choisir

N

Y

 

Venetian Beauty

6

Rothesay

Y

N

 

Ruby Remedy

7

Red Dazzler

Y

N

12/3/16

Spot The Diff

1

Snitzel

N

Y

 

Double Superlative

2

Turffontein

N

Y

 

Red Wayne

3

Red Dazzler

Y

N

 

Daunting Lass

4

Daunting Lad

Y

N

 

Red Handle

5

Not A Single Doubt

N

Y

 

Thunder Raider

6

Dr Green

Y

N

 

Social Conquest

7

Love Conquers All

Y

N

 

So up to including last Saturday’s Gold Coast Saturday city meeting, there have been 245 two-year-olds start in Brisbane Saturday city races (122 first thread, 73 second thread) plus 50 in this batch and of those 245 two-year-olds, some 118 (57 first thread, 36 last thread and 25 here in this list) – or 48.16% of all starters – were sired by stallions that were domiciled in Queensland at the time of the mare’s conception (don’t forget as per below that stallion Written Tycoon stood in Queensland for one year so the 2YOs named above by him, Butter Toast and Capo Di Tutti, were foaled following the stallion standing in Queensland. So the 48.16% figure above conversely means that 51.84% of starters were by stallions standing outside of Queensland when the mare conceived.

 

We’ve now had 25 two-year-old Saturday metropolitan races run in South-East Queensland in the racing season-to-date and of those 25 races, only nine have been won by the progeny of Queensland based sires at the time of the mare’s conception. Those nine winners of 25 races (36.00%) have been Boom Shucka (7/11/15 – Doomben), Just Orm (2/1/16 – Caloundra), Capitalist (9/1/16 – Gold Coast), Love Spy (16/1/16 – Caloundra), Bagus (23/1/16 – Doomben), Mishani Sleuth (30/1/16 – Doomben), Gracefully Chic (6/2/16 – Doomben), Two Shoes (13/2/16 – Doomben) and Royal Tithe (5/3/16 – Doomben). To again clarify the situation with Capitalist, his sire Written Tycoon was retired to stud in Victoria in 2007 but he did stand in Queensland for just one season and that was the season when Capitalist was conceived (2012), hence Capitalist has to be shown in the above as being by a Queensland based sire at the time of his dam’s conception.

So the aforesaid statistics prove Queensland stallions are under the whip and going nowhere in respect of winning their share of Saturday city 2YO races in South-East Queensland, commensurate with their percentage of runners (48.16% of runners but only 36% of winners).

 

So given the government is throwing thoroughbred racing in Queensland a lifeline by not making cuts to the QTIS system, let me look at some of the dreadful statistics of these stallions that stand in Queensland currently. Please note that I’ve intentionally left some stallions that have yearlings in next week’s Magic Millions Gold Coast sale off the list. There’s no use including deceased stallions like Sequalo and Captain Sonador in the list below. Additionally stallions that need more time to see if they are good, bad or indifferent, such as Drumbeats and Rothesay (oldest progeny are 3YOs) and Love Conquers All and Sidereus (oldest progeny 2YOs) and Instinction (oldest progeny are yearlings) have been intentionally omitted. And I’ve also left off stallions that haven’t had more than 40 runners represent them (Dutch Harry, etcetera).

 

Below are the statistics of Queensland based stallions – in alphabetical order – that have progeny in next week’s sale and so my figures are 100% confirmable by anyone who cares to check them, they are taken directly from the Magic Millions own catalogue for next week’s two-day yearling sale.

 

STALLION

% WINNERS-TO RUNNERS

% STAKESWINNERS-TO-RUNNERS

Bradbury’s Luck

68.16%

2.62%

Collate

48.97%

4.08%

Conatus

65.78%

0.00%

Easy Rocking

63.71%

2.21%

Exceedingly Good

44.92%

1.44%

Falvelon

66.45%

2.27%

Ferocity

55.43%

0.36%

Freeze

46.34%

0.81%

Hidden Dragon

61.70%

1.09%

Jet Spur

66.75%

1.54%

Monashee Mountain

66.75%

2.19%

Real Saga

54.21%

2.63%

Red Dazzler

59.81%

2.28%

Red Element

46.05%

0.00%

Seidnazar

41.71%

0.00%

Show A Heart

66.23%

3.01%

Tycoon Ruler

69.44%

0.69%

Wicked Style

47.16%

1.88%

 

My more than fair criteria for a “successful stallion” is a minimum 60% winners-to-runners and 5% stakeswinners-to-runners, which obviously still allows 40% of the progeny of a stallion not to win anywhere, even at Dingo – and it also allows 95% of his progeny to never win a black type race, even at lowly Listed level.

 

From all the aforesaid research and statistics my thoughts are that the Queensland thoroughbred breeding industry does not have one “successful sire” standing in the entire length and breadth of the entire State.

 

And I’ll let you be the judge of whether the stallion Jet Spur is “a breed shaper sire” after reviewing his statistics.

 

To my way of thinking, the two-day Magic Millions QTIS sale next week may not be the place for buyers to look if they want to buy a future black type horse. If they just want a horse that might win a race somewhere in the bush – with “might” being the operative word – buyers are what I’d call “some chance”.

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