EXCLUSIVE: OVER A DECADE ON DO TRACK RECORDS EQUATE TO A GUTBUSTER?

03/03/16

In my lifetime following thoroughbred form, I’ve noted that numerous track record breakers go like dromedaries at their next start and to that end I researched a story on the topic and put it in the 606-page racing book that I published in 2006.

So what I have done today for website visitors is updated all the record holders from that original article that was written on this website over a decade ago on 28/4/2005 and here is the updated story, which still leads me to the same conclusion as the original story – namely “avoid backing track record breakers at their next two starts”.

As recently as last Saturday at Randwick there was a rare occurrence in thoroughbred racing when two metropolitan track records were broken on the same day, firstly by Solicit in Race 6 and secondly by Charlie Boy two races later. Solicit officially stopped the clock at 1.20.34 for 1400 metres, which is less than one length outside the national 1400-metre record of 1.20.20 that Toledo set the day he won the Stradbroke Handicap at Eagle Farm in June 1998. In winning last Saturday, Solicit smashed by 0.69 of one second, the track record set by More Than Great the day he beat subsequent dual Cox Plate winner So You Think in a close photo finish. Charlie Boy’s official time was 1.15.08 which bettered Cosmic Endeavour’s previous track record of 1.15.17 by nine one-hundredth of a second.

The original story with the updated information in respect of track record holders read in part:

You would logically think that if a horse breaks a metropolitan track record, that he or she must be absolutely flying.

I’ve always had the opinion that in breaking the track record, the horse has gone so fast, it has in fact had a “gutbuster” – and that track record feat will cause that horse to get beaten within two starts.

So let’s examine the question “do horses get beaten within two starts of breaking a metropolitan track record”?

I decided to do a survey of two tracks in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne. In Brisbane I did both tracks of Eagle Farm and Doomben. In Sydney I checked Randwick and Rosehill, whilst in Melbourne, Caulfield and Flemington were surveyed. All these tracks have a long history and are the tracks where the majority of Group races are conducted within each State. As such, they have all the best horses from around Australia racing there each year at Carnival time.

There is the odd horse I can’t find the form for, because they broke their record too long ago. That statement pertains to track record holders like Wish Me Well (Eagle Farm) and Apollo Eleven (Randwick).

TRACK

DISTANCE

HORSE

WIN NEXT START

CAUL

1000

Lucky Secret

No

 

1100

Here De Angels

No

 

1200

Miss Andretti

Spelled – then won – then was beaten.

 

1400

Exceed And Excel

No

 

1600

Fields Of Omagh

No

 

1700

Niagara Falls

No

 

1800

Cent Home

No

 

2000

Tremezzo

No

 

2400

Diatribe

No

FLEM

900

Fappiano’s Son

No

 

1000

Black Caviar

Yes – then won twice more and retired

 

1200

Iglesia

No

 

1400

Lovey

No

 

1600

Scenic Peak

No

 

1800

Depeche Mode

Retired

 

2000

Makybe Diva

Yes – then beaten

 

2500

Kawtuban

No

 

3200

Kingston Rule

No

R/HILL

1100

Westicaro

No

 

1200

All Our Mob

No

 

1300

Alquoz

No

 

1400

Somepin Anypin

Yes – then never won again in seven starts.

 

1500

Shindig

No

 

1750

Riverina Charm

No

 

1800

Intergaze

No

 

1900

Balmeressa

No

 

2000

Danewin

No

 

2000

Octagonal

Yes – then won again

 

2400

Grand Zulu

No

R/WICK

1100

Famous Seamus

No

 

1200

That’s A Good Idea

No

 

1300

Charlie Boy

N/A – yet to start again

 

1400

Solicit

N/A – yet to start again

 

1600

Ike’s Dream

No

 

2000

Hampton Court

No

 

2400

Spechenka

No – only won two of 37 subsequent starts

 

2600

Balciano

No

 

Blank

Intentionally Blank

Blank

 

3200

Apollo Eleven

No

 

3200

Just A Dancer

No

E/FARM

900

Wish Me Well

Too old to trace record

 

1000

Azzaland

Yes – then won his next two starts after over 14 months off

 

1200

Century Kid

No

 

1300

Mitanni

No

 

1400

Toledo

Yes – then won again

 

1500

Armed For Action

Yes – then beaten

 

1500

Empire Blue

No

 

1500

Lord Denning

No

 

1500

Western Brace

No

 

1600

Just A Printer

No

 

1800

Blondin

No

 

1800

Jukebox King

No

 

2100

Celtic Trial

Yes – then beaten

 

2200

Czar Oak

Yes – then beaten

 

2400

De Gaulle Lane

Broke down

 

2900

Crying Game

No

 

3200

Sky Flyer

No

D/BEN

1010

Star of Florida

Yes – then beaten

 

1110

Star of Florida

Yes – then beaten

 

1200

Takeover Target

Yes – then won again

 

1350

Natural Destiny

Yes – then beaten

 

1615

Arrabeea

No

 

1650

Danu

No

 

2020

Might And Power

No

 

2100

Fantastic Blue

Yes – then unplaced next five starts

 

2200

Defier

Retired

So what can we deduce from all that research?

I can only find one horse – Brisbane sprinter Noble Gent, who in the history of post World War 2 racing could break a track record, then go back to the same track and distance and break his own track record. He broke the Eagle Farm track record on 3/1/05 and then broke his own record at his very next start on 22/1/05. I’m of the opinion that he created Australian racing history with that feat. After he broke the track record for the second time, he was unable to ever win another race and was retired after having had his last start at Eagle Farm on 8/3/08. Even what some people may choose to call “top class jockeys” couldn’t get him to win a race. These senior jockeys all rode Noble Gent, but couldn’t win on him after his second track record – Seamer, Munce, Katsidis, Michael Cahill, Pengelly, Scriven, Byrne, Holder and Galloway, etcetera. In fact apprentice Owen Turpin got closest to winning another race on Noble Gent when he went down in two tight photo finishes in two consecutive Class 6 races at Eagle Farm on 8/9/07 and 15/9/07. Noble Gent’s track record was broken by the Richie Stephenson Toowoomba trained gelding Azzaland on 23 January 2010.

Across the six racetracks of Caulfield, Flemington, Rosehill, Randwick, Eagle Farm and Doomben, I checked on the 66 individual – or joint – current track record holders of the 60 current track record holders. Of those 66 horses we have to eliminate seven horses – Wish Me Well and Apollo Eleven (as their records are too old), Defier and Depeche Mode (which were both retired after breaking their track records at Doomben and Flemington respectively, thus denying them a chance to either win, or lose), De Gaulle Lane (which in fairness broke down after winning the Queensland Derby) and both Solicit and Charlie Boy, which only broke their respective track records at Randwick five days ago, so they naturally haven’t had the chance to start again. That then leaves me with 59 horses (66 minus 7) to work with. Of those 59 horses only 15, or 25.42%, were able to win again at their very next start and that includes champions like Black Caviar that remained unbeaten until she was retired and horses like Miss Andretti that went to spell after breaking a track record, then won first-up, so in other words, historically 74.58% of horses get beaten at their next start after breaking a track record.

Of those 59 horses that are eligible from the list of 66 track record holders, only five or just 8.47% were able to win their next two starts. Those five horses were the champion mare Black Caviar, Octagonal, Azzaland, Toledo and the champion sprinter Takeover Target. It is interesting to note out of those five aforesaid horses only Octagonal achieved his consecutive wins at distances above 1400 metres. It is fair to therefore conclude that Octagonal was a “champion middle distance horse” of Australia and few would beg to differ.

The great triple Melbourne Cup winning mare Makybe Diva even got rolled within two starts of running her amazing national track record of 1.58.73 for 2000 metres, set when she won the Australian Cup in 2005 at Flemington, in the race that Damien Oliver on the Gai Waterhouse trained Winning Belle ran the field along at breakneck speed from the jump. Makybe Diva didn’t buck the trend when she went over in Japan at her second start following the Australian Cup victory – and got lost.

So maybe punters now armed with the information that 74.58% of track record breakers go over at their very next start, will not be so quick to think such-and-such a horse is a “put in take out” job. Extrapolating the figures out further, an astounding 91.53% of track record breakers get rolled within two starts of breaking a track record.

It is amazing to note a couple of other points. The great sprinter Hareeba broke the Eagle Farm 1300-metre track record and never ran another placing before being retired.

The great mare Lovey broke the 1400-metre track record at Flemington on 12/12/92. She still holds that record to this day, yet incredibly, she never won another race in 18 subsequent racetrack appearances after she broke that record.

Grand Zulu looked like Phar Lap winning during the 2004 Sydney Carnival and smashing the 2400-metre track record at Rosehill. Such was the esteem in which his effort was held that he was packed off to Hong Kong. However he only won one race from 10 appearances in Hong Kong after his devastating track record demolition – and then never won another race after he subsequently returned to Australia.

Intelligent Star which broke the Flemington 1100-metre track record on 12/2/02 that Here De Angels subsequently broke almost eight years to the day later, on 6/2/10 to be exact, didn’t win another race in eight attempts before retiring.

I think it has been conclusively proven, that as a punter, it is astute to avoid backing horses within two starts of breaking a track record. You’ll miss the odd winner, but will finish up a mile ahead financially over time.

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