03/03/16
In my lifetime following thoroughbred form, I’ve noted that numerous track record breakers go like dromedaries at their next start and to that end I researched a story on the topic and put it in the 606-page racing book that I published in 2006.
So what I have done today for website visitors is updated all the record holders from that original article that was written on this website over a decade ago on 28/4/2005 and here is the updated story, which still leads me to the same conclusion as the original story – namely “avoid backing track record breakers at their next two starts”.
As recently as last Saturday at Randwick there was a rare occurrence in thoroughbred racing when two metropolitan track records were broken on the same day, firstly by Solicit in Race 6 and secondly by Charlie Boy two races later. Solicit officially stopped the clock at 1.20.34 for 1400 metres, which is less than one length outside the national 1400-metre record of 1.20.20 that Toledo set the day he won the Stradbroke Handicap at Eagle Farm in June 1998. In winning last Saturday, Solicit smashed by 0.69 of one second, the track record set by More Than Great the day he beat subsequent dual Cox Plate winner So You Think in a close photo finish. Charlie Boy’s official time was 1.15.08 which bettered Cosmic Endeavour’s previous track record of 1.15.17 by nine one-hundredth of a second.
The original story with the updated information in respect of track record holders read in part:
You would logically think that if a horse breaks a metropolitan track record, that he or she must be absolutely flying.
I’ve always had the opinion that in breaking the track record, the horse has gone so fast, it has in fact had a “gutbuster” – and that track record feat will cause that horse to get beaten within two starts.
So let’s examine the question “do horses get beaten within two starts of breaking a metropolitan track record”?
I decided to do a survey of two tracks in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne. In Brisbane I did both tracks of Eagle Farm and Doomben. In Sydney I checked Randwick and Rosehill, whilst in Melbourne, Caulfield and Flemington were surveyed. All these tracks have a long history and are the tracks where the majority of Group races are conducted within each State. As such, they have all the best horses from around Australia racing there each year at Carnival time.
There is the odd horse I can’t find the form for, because they broke their record too long ago. That statement pertains to track record holders like Wish Me Well (Eagle Farm) and Apollo Eleven (Randwick).
TRACK
DISTANCE
HORSE
WIN NEXT START
CAUL
1000
Lucky Secret
No
1100
Here De Angels
No
1200
Miss Andretti
Spelled – then won – then was beaten.
1400
Exceed And Excel
No
1600
Fields Of Omagh
No
1700
Niagara Falls
No
1800
Cent Home
No
2000
Tremezzo
No
2400
Diatribe
No
FLEM
900
Fappiano’s Son
No
1000
Black Caviar
Yes – then won twice more and retired
1200
Iglesia
No
1400
Lovey
No
1600
Scenic Peak
No
1800
Depeche Mode
Retired
2000
Makybe Diva
Yes – then beaten
2500
Kawtuban
No
3200
Kingston Rule
No
R/HILL
1100
Westicaro
No
1200
All Our Mob
No
1300
Alquoz
No
1400
Somepin Anypin
Yes – then never won again in seven starts.
1500
Shindig
No
1750
Riverina Charm
No
1800
Intergaze
No
1900
Balmeressa
No
2000
Danewin
No
2000
Octagonal
Yes – then won again
2400
Grand Zulu
No
R/WICK
1100
Famous Seamus
No
1200
That’s A Good Idea
No
1300
Charlie Boy
N/A – yet to start again
1400
Solicit
N/A – yet to start again
1600
Ike’s Dream
No
2000
Hampton Court
No
2400
Spechenka
No – only won two of 37 subsequent starts
2600
Balciano
No
Blank
Intentionally Blank
Blank
3200
Apollo Eleven
No
3200
Just A Dancer
No
E/FARM
900
Wish Me Well
Too old to trace record
1000
Azzaland
Yes – then won his next two starts after over 14 months off
1200
Century Kid
No
1300
Mitanni
No
1400
Toledo
Yes – then won again
1500
Armed For Action
Yes – then beaten
1500
Empire Blue
No
1500
Lord Denning
No
1500
Western Brace
No
1600
Just A Printer
No
1800
Blondin
No
1800
Jukebox King
No
2100
Celtic Trial
Yes – then beaten
2200
Czar Oak
Yes – then beaten
2400
De Gaulle Lane
Broke down
2900
Crying Game
No
3200
Sky Flyer
No
D/BEN
1010
Star of Florida
Yes – then beaten
1110
Star of Florida
Yes – then beaten
1200
Takeover Target
Yes – then won again
1350
Natural Destiny
Yes – then beaten
1615
Arrabeea
No
1650
Danu
No
2020
Might And Power
No
2100
Fantastic Blue
Yes – then unplaced next five starts
2200
Defier
Retired
So what can we deduce from all that research?
I can only find one horse – Brisbane sprinter Noble Gent, who in the history of post World War 2 racing could break a track record, then go back to the same track and distance and break his own track record. He broke the Eagle Farm track record on 3/1/05 and then broke his own record at his very next start on 22/1/05. I’m of the opinion that he created Australian racing history with that feat. After he broke the track record for the second time, he was unable to ever win another race and was retired after having had his last start at Eagle Farm on 8/3/08. Even what some people may choose to call “top class jockeys” couldn’t get him to win a race. These senior jockeys all rode Noble Gent, but couldn’t win on him after his second track record – Seamer, Munce, Katsidis, Michael Cahill, Pengelly, Scriven, Byrne, Holder and Galloway, etcetera. In fact apprentice Owen Turpin got closest to winning another race on Noble Gent when he went down in two tight photo finishes in two consecutive Class 6 races at Eagle Farm on 8/9/07 and 15/9/07. Noble Gent’s track record was broken by the Richie Stephenson Toowoomba trained gelding Azzaland on 23 January 2010.
Across the six racetracks of Caulfield, Flemington, Rosehill, Randwick, Eagle Farm and Doomben, I checked on the 66 individual – or joint – current track record holders of the 60 current track record holders. Of those 66 horses we have to eliminate seven horses – Wish Me Well and Apollo Eleven (as their records are too old), Defier and Depeche Mode (which were both retired after breaking their track records at Doomben and Flemington respectively, thus denying them a chance to either win, or lose), De Gaulle Lane (which in fairness broke down after winning the Queensland Derby) and both Solicit and Charlie Boy, which only broke their respective track records at Randwick five days ago, so they naturally haven’t had the chance to start again. That then leaves me with 59 horses (66 minus 7) to work with. Of those 59 horses only 15, or 25.42%, were able to win again at their very next start and that includes champions like Black Caviar that remained unbeaten until she was retired and horses like Miss Andretti that went to spell after breaking a track record, then won first-up, so in other words, historically 74.58% of horses get beaten at their next start after breaking a track record.
Of those 59 horses that are eligible from the list of 66 track record holders, only five or just 8.47% were able to win their next two starts. Those five horses were the champion mare Black Caviar, Octagonal, Azzaland, Toledo and the champion sprinter Takeover Target. It is interesting to note out of those five aforesaid horses only Octagonal achieved his consecutive wins at distances above 1400 metres. It is fair to therefore conclude that Octagonal was a “champion middle distance horse” of Australia and few would beg to differ.
The great triple Melbourne Cup winning mare Makybe Diva even got rolled within two starts of running her amazing national track record of 1.58.73 for 2000 metres, set when she won the Australian Cup in 2005 at Flemington, in the race that Damien Oliver on the Gai Waterhouse trained Winning Belle ran the field along at breakneck speed from the jump. Makybe Diva didn’t buck the trend when she went over in Japan at her second start following the Australian Cup victory – and got lost.
So maybe punters now armed with the information that 74.58% of track record breakers go over at their very next start, will not be so quick to think such-and-such a horse is a “put in take out” job. Extrapolating the figures out further, an astounding 91.53% of track record breakers get rolled within two starts of breaking a track record.
It is amazing to note a couple of other points. The great sprinter Hareeba broke the Eagle Farm 1300-metre track record and never ran another placing before being retired.
The great mare Lovey broke the 1400-metre track record at Flemington on 12/12/92. She still holds that record to this day, yet incredibly, she never won another race in 18 subsequent racetrack appearances after she broke that record.
Grand Zulu looked like Phar Lap winning during the 2004 Sydney Carnival and smashing the 2400-metre track record at Rosehill. Such was the esteem in which his effort was held that he was packed off to Hong Kong. However he only won one race from 10 appearances in Hong Kong after his devastating track record demolition – and then never won another race after he subsequently returned to Australia.
Intelligent Star which broke the Flemington 1100-metre track record on 12/2/02 that Here De Angels subsequently broke almost eight years to the day later, on 6/2/10 to be exact, didn’t win another race in eight attempts before retiring.
I think it has been conclusively proven, that as a punter, it is astute to avoid backing horses within two starts of breaking a track record. You’ll miss the odd winner, but will finish up a mile ahead financially over time.