BACKING HORSES RESUMING FROM A SPELL IS A QUICK WAY TO THE POOR HOUSE…..Part 7

11/04/13

On 30/8/12 I publicly placed on this website the first of what will be 12 monthly articles proving how financially catastrophic the practice of backing horses resuming from a spell is. As recently as 30/3/13 in Brisbane we saw the long odds-on favourite, The White Hope, run a very lean third when resuming from a relatively short spell of just 18 weeks.

The six original articles which can be viewed HEREHEREHEREHEREHERE and HERE contained the names of all the horses that had resumed from a spell in Saturday metropolitan races run in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in the first six calendar months of the new racing season, namely 1/8/12 to 31/8/12, 1/9/12 to 30/9/12, 1/10/12 to 31/10/12, 1/11/12 to 30/11/12, 1/12/12 to 31/12/12 and 1/1/13 to 21/1/3 inclusive.

Also noted was 1) the track rating that prevailed at the end of the relevant race meeting, as well as 2) the trainer’s name and 3) the placing of the subject horse and 4) the official starting price.

It’s now time to review the February 2013 results from horses that resumed in the three eastern seaboard States.

Please note that in the below text obviously “B” stands for Brisbane, “S” for Sydney and “M” for Melbourne.

The full list of horses that resumed in Saturday city races for the entire month of February 2013 in those three States reads:

DATE

CITY

HORSE

WKS OFF

PLACING

PRICE

TRAINER

2/2

B-S6

Rusty Colours

17

3

$6

Lawlor

 

 

Beggin

14

7

$10

Dais

 

 

Black Magic

28

4

$10

Brown

 

 

Za Magic

31

6

$14

Smith

 

 

Sinister Prince

47

8

$6

Heinemann

 

 

Arado

15

2

$18

M. Nolan

 

 

Mule Forty Six

51

11

$101

Taylor

 

 

Love Laughing

28

11

$31

Hall

 

S-H10

Said Com

17

4

$3.80

Waller

 

 

Thubiaan

17

7

$7.50

Waler

 

 

Ichihara

15

6

$5.50

Denham

 

 

Raceway

19

12

$5

Waterhouse

 

 

Typeface

13

8

$61

Van Tonder

 

M-G3

Shamus Award

12

3

$8.50

O’Brien

 

 

Albrecht

18

6

$2.40

Snowden

 

 

Shoreham

32

5

$26

Hasan

 

 

Sheer Talent

22

4

$12

Kavanagh

 

 

Force Command

19

2

$31

Eurell

 

 

Cardinal Virtue

44

6

$26

Binaisse

 

 

Bianmick

16

12

$51

Brady

 

 

Auld Burns

16

4

$41

Hayes

 

 

Tigeriffic

42

13

$201

McDonald

9/2

B-G3

Grey Countess

18

1

$17

Thompson

 

 

 Trakstar

21

12

$11

T. Gollan

 

 

Offense

25

6

$51

Thompson

 

 

Khaantantes

19

9

$31

Heathcote

 

 

Pellegrini

14

8

$3.80

Heathcote

 

 

Alcancia

24

4

$11

Lockwood

 

 

Haizum

21

11

$15

Sears

 

 

Tomboy

46

14

$14

Heathcote

 

 

Better Than Ready

16

2

$2.05

Schweida

 

 

War Ends

18

9

$51

Edmonds

 

 

Joint Chiefs

16

10

$31

Wakefield

 

 

Machination

32

13

$151

Duryea

 

S-G3

Misshiraz

23

9

$41

Frazer

 

 

Spring Rose

27

6

$31

Coyle

 

 

Va Pensiero

18

1

$14

Coyle

 

 

De La Dilo

21

11

$31

Payne

 

 

Sugar Rush

18

5

$3

Waterhouse

 

 

Air Comet

35

10

$19

Pride

 

 

Hatton Garden

48

6

$71

Smith

 

 

Rushing To Win

23

13

$15

Smith

 

 

Eminent Domain

14

9

$19

Williams

 

 

Danleigh

20

5

$6.50

Waller

 

 

Albert The Fat

41

7

$8.50

Waller

 

 

Centennial Park

18

3

$7.50

Payne

 

 

Doctor Doom

45

9

$41

Walter

 

 

Hurrara

28

6

$51

Frazer

 

 

Tougher Than Ever

13

4

$4.60

Waller

 

 

Coliseo

23

11

$101

Gardner

 

 

Punch Your Weight

24

13

$13

McInerney

 

 

Definite Choice

70

8

$13

Hickman

 

 

Peck

23

9

$16

Snowden

 

M-D4

Angelic Light

12

3

$8

Griffiths

 

 

Balaclava Lady

13

5

$13

Blackiston

 

 

Quest For Peace

18

4

$7.50

Moody

 

 

Shanghai Warrior

18

4

$6

Hyland

 

 

Mister Milton

12

6

$10

Waymouth

 

 

Fiveandahalfstar

14

2

$20

A. Cummings

 

 

Super Cool

14

3

$7

Kavanagh

 

 

Hvasstan

14

8

$11

Gelagotis

 

 

Mawingo

20

2

$16

Freedman

 

 

Callanish

15

8

$8

Price

 

 

Dance With Her

17

7

$101

Brideoake

 

 

All Too Hard

15

1

$2.30

Hawkes

 

 

Domesky

27

12

$101

Kent

 

 

Prairie Star

14

10

$5

O’Brien

 

 

Royal Mail

30

13

$151

Howard

 

 

There’s only One

31

1

$9

Moody

 

 

Bonaria

12

7

$12

Hyland

 

 

Never Forget

23

8

$15

Moody

 

 

Biancon Rose

18

12

$26

Brideoake

16/2

B-S6

Tragedy

13

8

$17

P. Nolan

 

 

Drumshanbo

50

10

$61

Henry

 

 

Tenacious Jack

18

11

$51

Schweida

 

 

Beseech

16

11

$14

Duncan

 

 

Kiss Me Deadly

28

9

$31

Lipp

 

S-D4

Permit

15

4

$18

Waller

 

 

Pear Tart

14

5

$9

Thompson

 

 

Red Tracer

15

2

$2.45

Waller

 

 

Ladys Angel

38

4

$18

Pride

 

 

Whittington

19

2

$2

Waterhouse

 

 

Criterion

15

3

$9

Payne

 

 

Never Can Tell

16

1

$8.50

A. Cummings

 

 

Brilliant Bisc

19

3

$4.80

Moody

 

 

Overreach

17

1

$1.75

Waterhouse

 

 

Thump

14

7

$15

Thompson

 

 

Anasheed

18

9

$51

Hawkes

 

 

Sacred Falls

14

5

$2.80

Waller

 

 

Ashokan

18

4

$4.80

O’Shea

 

 

Honorius

15

8

$51

Payne

 

 

Rebel Dane

16

1

$3.10

Portelli

 

 

Urquidez

25

2

$11

Austin

 

 

Casino Swoop

17

9

$41

Thompson

 

 

Dear Demi

14

3

$10

C. Conners

 

 

Longport

17

8

$12

Thompson

 

 

Jade Marauder

19

6

$18

Waller

 

 

Flying Snitzel

19

5

$21

Ryan

 

 

Brave Soul

14

7

$9

Pride

 

 

Secret Delight

27

9

$16

Payne

 

 

Fibrillation

37

10

$14

Martin

 

 

Hoylonny

14

4

$8.50

Waller

 

 

Aeronautical

14

3

$10

Cohen

 

 

Lebrechaun

13

8

$41

Dale

 

 

Under The sun

15

2

$3.20

Waterhouse

 

 

Upshot

17

3

$5.50

Pride

 

 

Mon Soleil

14

10

$13

Waller

 

M-G3

Vatuvei

14

7

$26

Moody

 

 

Prince of Capers

23

6

$17

McEvoy

 

 

Epingle

31

3

$21

Kent

 

 

Kazanluk

14

5

$8

Freedman

 

 

Alzora

14

1

$18

Hayes

 

 

Baluch

19

4

$21

Moody

 

 

Lunar Rise

13

10

$5.50

B. Cummings

 

 

Philippi

19

4

$5.50

Kent

 

 

High Esteem

19

6

$18

Moody

 

 

Gerontius

14

9

$51

Hayes

 

 

Pins of Pele

19

11

$31

Freedman

 

 

Golden Archer

14

3

$41

Moody

 

 

Moment of Change

19

2

$21

Moody

 

 

Spirit Cent

18

8

$301

Leek

 

 

Black Caviar

34

1

$1.10

Moody

 

 

Satin Shoes

14

4

$51

C. Conners

 

 

Pilot’s Lane

23

10

$26

McEvoy

 

 

Its Prince

14

14

$201

Griffiths

 

 

Instalment

30

9

$9

Kavanagh

 

 

Academy Jack

24

4

$71

Short

 

 

Why Not

14

14

$7.50

Hayes

 

 

Pride of Coupez

44

13

$201

Keys

23/2

B-D5

Kar Ma Te

46

11

$41

Laming

 

 

Dienekes

16

9

$19

Guy

 

 

Caellum

18

3

$14

Smith

 

 

Hold Me Tight

20

1

$4

Baldwin

 

 

Chart

25

8

$14

Edmonds

 

 

River Lad

27

4

$8.50

N. McCall

 

 

Transporter

18

7

$26

Thompson

 

 

Chandra

22

6

$26

Dann

 

 

Riddle Me This

26

5

$41

T. Gollan

 

 

Palais Court

24

11

$17

N. McCall

 

S-H10

Champollian

20

3

$16

Snowden

 

 

Senior Council

14

9

$61

Cohen

 

 

Sovereign Bid

18

8

$26

Prain

 

 

Appearance

16

2

$4.40

Walter

 

 

Nocturnelle

19

4

$3.20

Waller

 

 

Colorado Claire

19

3

$8

O’Shea

 

 

Bray Roan

18

2

$101

Ruttley

 

 

Eigelstein

37

8

$15

Waller

 

 

Jacquinot Bay

22

1

$2.80

Walter

 

 

Glencadam Gold

15

10

$5

Waterhouse

 

 

Laser Hawk

45

8

$4.40

Waterhouse

 

 

Kelinni

15

5

$9

Waller

 

 

Gatewood

16

6

$12

Waller

 

 

Streama

16

2

$3.90

Walter

 

 

Onthelookout

18

3

$21

Joseph

 

 

Hood

34

8

$4.80

Walter

 

 

Ideal Position

19

7

$21

Brasch

 

 

Stand To Gain

38

7

$31

Waller

 

 

Lunayir

24

8

$9

Waller

 

M-G3

Cambiasco

21

13

$81

O’Brien

 

 

Crystal Web

16

8

$8.50

Ellerton

 

 

Street Crime

22

12

$41

Kavanagh

 

 

Mourinho

17

7

$19

Gelagotis

 

 

Stoneblack

21

9

$101

Smerdon

 

 

Now You Know

45

6

$3.20

O’Brien

 

 

Gondokoro

15

7

$51

Carey

 

 

Tanby

14

5

$31

Hickmott

 

 

Green Moon

15

4

$6

Hickmott

 

 

Mourayan

14

8

$81

Hickmott

 

 

Glass Harmonium

16

2

$18

Moroney

 

 

Maluckyday

15

5

$101

Hawkes

 

 

Niwot

15

6

$201

Hawkes

 

 

Lights of Heaven

15

10

$13

Moody

 

 

Crack A Roadie

15

14

$16

Theodore

 

 

Ortensia

24

11

$12

Messara

 

 

Woorim

39

13

$18

Heathcote

 

 

Spirit of Boom

13

3

$11

T. Gollan

 

 

Facile Tigre

37

2

$15

McLachlan

 

 

Lone Rock

15

8

$12

Smerdon

 

 

Freereturn

17

10

$31

Warren

 

 

Mrs Onassis

15

1

$16

Ryan

 

 

Spirit Song

15

6

$7

Purcell

 

 

Hi Belle

14

3

$9

Gunning

 

 

Star of Giselle

14

1

$4.60

Ellerton

 

To show what an exercise in futility it is backing horses resuming, during February 2013 another 183 horses resumed from a spell across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Saturday city races – and of those 183 horses only 13 (7.10%) won, meaning that in the seven months to date of the current racing season, a total of 968 horses have resumed across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne and of those 968 horses only 90 have won, which means just 9.29% of horses resuming in a Saturday city race won during the months of August, September, October, November and December 2012 and January and February 2103 – so conversely an amazing 90.71% lost.

If a punter had $1 a win on all horses resuming, they would obviously outlay $968 and they’d get back just $703.11, so they’d lose 27.37% of their stake. Two roughies won first up in December 2012 which helped the punter’s return figure out tremendously – and they were Jester’s Girl at 40/1 in Brisbane on 1/12/12 and Beltrois at 25/1 in Melbourne on 22/12/12 and another roughie won in January 2013, when $26 hope Frisco Lights won in Brisbane on 19/1/13. In February 2013 a series of roughies won resuming, namely Grey Countess($17), Alzora ($18) and Mrs Onassis ($16).

Take a short priced overview of the group of horses resuming and if a punter had $1 a win on every horse that jumped at a starting price of $4 inclusive or less, there were 86 horses in that category, season-to-date so a punter would obviously outlay $86 and the return would have been only $71.71, so a punter would lose on this strategy also – and the financial loss would only be 16.62%. In the month of February 2013 of the 18 horses resuming that started $4 or under, only six (33.33%) won.

In the racing season-to-date, the shortest priced horse resuming from a spell that got beaten was the Joe Pride trained Sydney sprinter Rain Affair at $1.50. That horse ran fourth at Warwick Farm to stablemate Tiger Tees on 8/9/12.

In the racing season to date, the best training performance was by Robbie Griffiths who trained Beltrois to win first up at Flemington after 59 weeks off. The second best effort in the racing season to date was by Rick Hore-Lacy who produced Chase The Rainbow to win at Caulfield on 1/9/12 after 47 weeks off. The only other two trainers who have trained a Saturday city class winner that hadn’t started for at least 40 weeks – were Jason Coyle who trained Lady Be Great to win first up after 46 weeks at Warwick Farm on 1/12/12 and Leon Corstens who trained Tokugawa to win at Moonee Valley on 4/8/12 after 45 weeks off.

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