11/04/13
On 30/8/12 I publicly placed on this website the first of what will be 12 monthly articles proving how financially catastrophic the practice of backing horses resuming from a spell is. As recently as 30/3/13 in Brisbane we saw the long odds-on favourite, The White Hope, run a very lean third when resuming from a relatively short spell of just 18 weeks.
The six original articles which can be viewed HERE, HERE, HERE, HERE, HERE and HERE contained the names of all the horses that had resumed from a spell in Saturday metropolitan races run in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in the first six calendar months of the new racing season, namely 1/8/12 to 31/8/12, 1/9/12 to 30/9/12, 1/10/12 to 31/10/12, 1/11/12 to 30/11/12, 1/12/12 to 31/12/12 and 1/1/13 to 21/1/3 inclusive.
Also noted was 1) the track rating that prevailed at the end of the relevant race meeting, as well as 2) the trainer’s name and 3) the placing of the subject horse and 4) the official starting price.
It’s now time to review the February 2013 results from horses that resumed in the three eastern seaboard States.
Please note that in the below text obviously “B” stands for Brisbane, “S” for Sydney and “M” for Melbourne.
The full list of horses that resumed in Saturday city races for the entire month of February 2013 in those three States reads:
DATE
CITY
HORSE
WKS OFF
PLACING
PRICE
TRAINER
2/2
B-S6
Rusty Colours
17
3
$6
Lawlor
Beggin
14
7
$10
Dais
Black Magic
28
4
$10
Brown
Za Magic
31
6
$14
Smith
Sinister Prince
47
8
$6
Heinemann
Arado
15
2
$18
M. Nolan
Mule Forty Six
51
11
$101
Taylor
Love Laughing
28
11
$31
Hall
S-H10
Said Com
17
4
$3.80
Waller
Thubiaan
17
7
$7.50
Waler
Ichihara
15
6
$5.50
Denham
Raceway
19
12
$5
Waterhouse
Typeface
13
8
$61
Van Tonder
M-G3
Shamus Award
12
3
$8.50
O’Brien
Albrecht
18
6
$2.40
Snowden
Shoreham
32
5
$26
Hasan
Sheer Talent
22
4
$12
Kavanagh
Force Command
19
2
$31
Eurell
Cardinal Virtue
44
6
$26
Binaisse
Bianmick
16
12
$51
Brady
Auld Burns
16
4
$41
Hayes
Tigeriffic
42
13
$201
McDonald
9/2
B-G3
Grey Countess
18
1
$17
Thompson
Trakstar
21
12
$11
T. Gollan
Offense
25
6
$51
Thompson
Khaantantes
19
9
$31
Heathcote
Pellegrini
14
8
$3.80
Heathcote
Alcancia
24
4
$11
Lockwood
Haizum
21
11
$15
Sears
Tomboy
46
14
$14
Heathcote
Better Than Ready
16
2
$2.05
Schweida
War Ends
18
9
$51
Edmonds
Joint Chiefs
16
10
$31
Wakefield
Machination
32
13
$151
Duryea
S-G3
Misshiraz
23
9
$41
Frazer
Spring Rose
27
6
$31
Coyle
Va Pensiero
18
1
$14
Coyle
De La Dilo
21
11
$31
Payne
Sugar Rush
18
5
$3
Waterhouse
Air Comet
35
10
$19
Pride
Hatton Garden
48
6
$71
Smith
Rushing To Win
23
13
$15
Smith
Eminent Domain
14
9
$19
Williams
Danleigh
20
5
$6.50
Waller
Albert The Fat
41
7
$8.50
Waller
Centennial Park
18
3
$7.50
Payne
Doctor Doom
45
9
$41
Walter
Hurrara
28
6
$51
Frazer
Tougher Than Ever
13
4
$4.60
Waller
Coliseo
23
11
$101
Gardner
Punch Your Weight
24
13
$13
McInerney
Definite Choice
70
8
$13
Hickman
Peck
23
9
$16
Snowden
M-D4
Angelic Light
12
3
$8
Griffiths
Balaclava Lady
13
5
$13
Blackiston
Quest For Peace
18
4
$7.50
Moody
Shanghai Warrior
18
4
$6
Hyland
Mister Milton
12
6
$10
Waymouth
Fiveandahalfstar
14
2
$20
A. Cummings
Super Cool
14
3
$7
Kavanagh
Hvasstan
14
8
$11
Gelagotis
Mawingo
20
2
$16
Freedman
Callanish
15
8
$8
Price
Dance With Her
17
7
$101
Brideoake
All Too Hard
15
1
$2.30
Hawkes
Domesky
27
12
$101
Kent
Prairie Star
14
10
$5
O’Brien
Royal Mail
30
13
$151
Howard
There’s only One
31
1
$9
Moody
Bonaria
12
7
$12
Hyland
Never Forget
23
8
$15
Moody
Biancon Rose
18
12
$26
Brideoake
16/2
B-S6
Tragedy
13
8
$17
P. Nolan
Drumshanbo
50
10
$61
Henry
Tenacious Jack
18
11
$51
Schweida
Beseech
16
11
$14
Duncan
Kiss Me Deadly
28
9
$31
Lipp
S-D4
Permit
15
4
$18
Waller
Pear Tart
14
5
$9
Thompson
Red Tracer
15
2
$2.45
Waller
Ladys Angel
38
4
$18
Pride
Whittington
19
2
$2
Waterhouse
Criterion
15
3
$9
Payne
Never Can Tell
16
1
$8.50
A. Cummings
Brilliant Bisc
19
3
$4.80
Moody
Overreach
17
1
$1.75
Waterhouse
Thump
14
7
$15
Thompson
Anasheed
18
9
$51
Hawkes
Sacred Falls
14
5
$2.80
Waller
Ashokan
18
4
$4.80
O’Shea
Honorius
15
8
$51
Payne
Rebel Dane
16
1
$3.10
Portelli
Urquidez
25
2
$11
Austin
Casino Swoop
17
9
$41
Thompson
Dear Demi
14
3
$10
C. Conners
Longport
17
8
$12
Thompson
Jade Marauder
19
6
$18
Waller
Flying Snitzel
19
5
$21
Ryan
Brave Soul
14
7
$9
Pride
Secret Delight
27
9
$16
Payne
Fibrillation
37
10
$14
Martin
Hoylonny
14
4
$8.50
Waller
Aeronautical
14
3
$10
Cohen
Lebrechaun
13
8
$41
Dale
Under The sun
15
2
$3.20
Waterhouse
Upshot
17
3
$5.50
Pride
Mon Soleil
14
10
$13
Waller
M-G3
Vatuvei
14
7
$26
Moody
Prince of Capers
23
6
$17
McEvoy
Epingle
31
3
$21
Kent
Kazanluk
14
5
$8
Freedman
Alzora
14
1
$18
Hayes
Baluch
19
4
$21
Moody
Lunar Rise
13
10
$5.50
B. Cummings
Philippi
19
4
$5.50
Kent
High Esteem
19
6
$18
Moody
Gerontius
14
9
$51
Hayes
Pins of Pele
19
11
$31
Freedman
Golden Archer
14
3
$41
Moody
Moment of Change
19
2
$21
Moody
Spirit Cent
18
8
$301
Leek
Black Caviar
34
1
$1.10
Moody
Satin Shoes
14
4
$51
C. Conners
Pilot’s Lane
23
10
$26
McEvoy
Its Prince
14
14
$201
Griffiths
Instalment
30
9
$9
Kavanagh
Academy Jack
24
4
$71
Short
Why Not
14
14
$7.50
Hayes
Pride of Coupez
44
13
$201
Keys
23/2
B-D5
Kar Ma Te
46
11
$41
Laming
Dienekes
16
9
$19
Guy
Caellum
18
3
$14
Smith
Hold Me Tight
20
1
$4
Baldwin
Chart
25
8
$14
Edmonds
River Lad
27
4
$8.50
N. McCall
Transporter
18
7
$26
Thompson
Chandra
22
6
$26
Dann
Riddle Me This
26
5
$41
T. Gollan
Palais Court
24
11
$17
N. McCall
S-H10
Champollian
20
3
$16
Snowden
Senior Council
14
9
$61
Cohen
Sovereign Bid
18
8
$26
Prain
Appearance
16
2
$4.40
Walter
Nocturnelle
19
4
$3.20
Waller
Colorado Claire
19
3
$8
O’Shea
Bray Roan
18
2
$101
Ruttley
Eigelstein
37
8
$15
Waller
Jacquinot Bay
22
1
$2.80
Walter
Glencadam Gold
15
10
$5
Waterhouse
Laser Hawk
45
8
$4.40
Waterhouse
Kelinni
15
5
$9
Waller
Gatewood
16
6
$12
Waller
Streama
16
2
$3.90
Walter
Onthelookout
18
3
$21
Joseph
Hood
34
8
$4.80
Walter
Ideal Position
19
7
$21
Brasch
Stand To Gain
38
7
$31
Waller
Lunayir
24
8
$9
Waller
M-G3
Cambiasco
21
13
$81
O’Brien
Crystal Web
16
8
$8.50
Ellerton
Street Crime
22
12
$41
Kavanagh
Mourinho
17
7
$19
Gelagotis
Stoneblack
21
9
$101
Smerdon
Now You Know
45
6
$3.20
O’Brien
Gondokoro
15
7
$51
Carey
Tanby
14
5
$31
Hickmott
Green Moon
15
4
$6
Hickmott
Mourayan
14
8
$81
Hickmott
Glass Harmonium
16
2
$18
Moroney
Maluckyday
15
5
$101
Hawkes
Niwot
15
6
$201
Hawkes
Lights of Heaven
15
10
$13
Moody
Crack A Roadie
15
14
$16
Theodore
Ortensia
24
11
$12
Messara
Woorim
39
13
$18
Heathcote
Spirit of Boom
13
3
$11
T. Gollan
Facile Tigre
37
2
$15
McLachlan
Lone Rock
15
8
$12
Smerdon
Freereturn
17
10
$31
Warren
Mrs Onassis
15
1
$16
Ryan
Spirit Song
15
6
$7
Purcell
Hi Belle
14
3
$9
Gunning
Star of Giselle
14
1
$4.60
Ellerton
To show what an exercise in futility it is backing horses resuming, during February 2013 another 183 horses resumed from a spell across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Saturday city races – and of those 183 horses only 13 (7.10%) won, meaning that in the seven months to date of the current racing season, a total of 968 horses have resumed across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne and of those 968 horses only 90 have won, which means just 9.29% of horses resuming in a Saturday city race won during the months of August, September, October, November and December 2012 and January and February 2103 – so conversely an amazing 90.71% lost.
If a punter had $1 a win on all horses resuming, they would obviously outlay $968 and they’d get back just $703.11, so they’d lose 27.37% of their stake. Two roughies won first up in December 2012 which helped the punter’s return figure out tremendously – and they were Jester’s Girl at 40/1 in Brisbane on 1/12/12 and Beltrois at 25/1 in Melbourne on 22/12/12 and another roughie won in January 2013, when $26 hope Frisco Lights won in Brisbane on 19/1/13. In February 2013 a series of roughies won resuming, namely Grey Countess($17), Alzora ($18) and Mrs Onassis ($16).
Take a short priced overview of the group of horses resuming and if a punter had $1 a win on every horse that jumped at a starting price of $4 inclusive or less, there were 86 horses in that category, season-to-date so a punter would obviously outlay $86 and the return would have been only $71.71, so a punter would lose on this strategy also – and the financial loss would only be 16.62%. In the month of February 2013 of the 18 horses resuming that started $4 or under, only six (33.33%) won.
In the racing season-to-date, the shortest priced horse resuming from a spell that got beaten was the Joe Pride trained Sydney sprinter Rain Affair at $1.50. That horse ran fourth at Warwick Farm to stablemate Tiger Tees on 8/9/12.
In the racing season to date, the best training performance was by Robbie Griffiths who trained Beltrois to win first up at Flemington after 59 weeks off. The second best effort in the racing season to date was by Rick Hore-Lacy who produced Chase The Rainbow to win at Caulfield on 1/9/12 after 47 weeks off. The only other two trainers who have trained a Saturday city class winner that hadn’t started for at least 40 weeks – were Jason Coyle who trained Lady Be Great to win first up after 46 weeks at Warwick Farm on 1/12/12 and Leon Corstens who trained Tokugawa to win at Moonee Valley on 4/8/12 after 45 weeks off.