BACKING LONG TERM LOSERS IS A QUICK WAY TO THE POOR HOUSE…..Part 2

06/03/13

On 7/2/2013 I penned the first of what will be a monthly story proving that it is financially a quick way to the poor house to back horses that haven’t won a race anywhere for the last 52 weeks or more, when those horses are contesting Saturday city races.

To have any remote chance of winning whilst punting over the course of a year, punters need to establish some “rules” to abide by. They may be not to back odds-on chances, not to bet on slow or heavy tracks, not to back horses resuming from a spell, not to back horses from certain overrated stables, etcetera, but not backing horses in Saturday city races that haven’t won in the last 52 weeks is a good rule to implement into one’s punting strategy. Like any other rule of punting, the odd one will win, but not enough will win to make you ever consider changing the rule once it’s been invoked.

The original story that I penned on the subject on 7/2/2013 can be read by clicking HERE.

Today I look back on “long term losers” that raced in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne Saturday races during the month of February 2013 and you’ll see a few familiar names that you regularly hear the “experts” tip, or that ill-informed punters back. The track rating at the end of the meeting is listed in the report along with the number of months since the horse has won, the name of the trainer, the place it ran on the day and the official starting price.

DATE

CITY

HORSE

MTHS SINCE WON

PLACING

PRICE

TRAINER

2/2

B-S6

Doubtful Jack

16

4

$4

Schweida

 

 

Gundy Son

20

1

$2.20

Heathcote

 

 

Maroon Bells

12

9

$26

McLachlan

 

 

World By Night

12

11

$201

Brown

 

 

Mule Forty Six

12

11

$101

Taylor

 

 

Mount Kosciuszko

16

12

$31

Costello

 

 

Jasminka

21

5

$17

S. Ryan

 

 

Warrior Girl

18

8

$31

Purdy

 

 

Noogoora Burr

13

9

$3.80

Lawlor

 

 

Love Laughing

13

11

$31

Hall

 

S-H10

Anything

20

8

$21

Sues

 

M-G3

Canali

13

2

$7

Brown

 

 

Cardinal Virtue

25

6

$26

Binaisse

 

 

Lucky Eighty Eight

15

7

$14

Ellerton

 

 

Boom ‘N’ Zoom

15

10

$12

Keys

 

 

Elusive King

13

3

$2.90

Moody

 

 

White Universe

17

6

$4.80

Moody

 

 

Scottish Border

23

8

$51

Warren

 

 

Val Mondo

28

9

$201

Purcell

 

 

Shewan

15

6

$17

Smerdon

 

 

Top Drop

15

11

$18

Lawson

 

 

Bigelow

23

7

$41

McDonald

 

 

Auld Burns

18

4

$41

Hayes

 

 

Population

12

1

$4.80

Freedman

9/2

B-G3

Count Encosta

34

3

$4.80

Thompson

 

 

Noogoora Burr

13

4

$10

Lawlor

 

 

Fitness Fanatic

22

2

$6

Heinrich

 

 

Naynay

19

7

$81

Gafa

 

 

Mirabeau

15

12

$151

Stephenson

 

 

Azzaland

21

5

$21

Stephenson

 

 

The Jackal

24

15

$81

St Vincent

 

 

Joint Chiefs

15

10

$31

Wakefield

 

 

Silver Bullion

25

8

$11

Heathcote

 

 

Prost

13

6

$14

Thompson

 

 

Dusty Gold

15

8

$6.50

Dunn

 

 

Tokamak

18

1

$9

Lockwood

 

S-G3

Misshiraz

12

9

$41

Frazer

 

 

Arms Length

13

3

$12

Goldman

 

 

Segue

13

2

$6

Snowden

 

 

Miss Diagnosis

19

6

$21

Pride

 

 

Silk Pins

15

4

$8.50

Waller

 

 

Ying La

16

8

$15

Delaney

 

 

Hatton Garden

21

6

$71

M. Smith

 

 

Kimberley Kid

20

7

$71

Payne

 

 

Albert The Fat

15

7

$8.50

Waller

 

 

Centennial Park

24

3

$7.50

Payne

 

 

Willy Jimmy

19

10

$26

Walter

 

 

Doctor Doom

16

9

$41

Walter

 

 

Jest Crewsin’

20

8

$51

Bowen

 

 

Bereft

19

4

$4.80

Snowden

 

 

Magic Weekend

12

1

$17

Hawkes

 

 

Mr Edison

13

3

$15

B. Cummings

 

 

Peck

19

9

$16

Snowden

 

 

Orthie’s Gem

18

12

$41

Neale

 

 

Jimmy Fortunes

13

6

$31

Clout

 

M-G3

Red Eye Special

16

7

$31

Moroney

 

 

Mister Milton

13

6

$10

Waymouth

 

 

Wall Street

27

4

$41

Moroney

 

 

Foreteller

15

5

$5.50

Waller

 

 

Good Ba Ba

37

9

$10

Hore-Lacy

 

 

Domesky

14

12

$101

Kent

 

 

Prairie Star

20

10

$5

O’Brien

 

 

Avionics

12

9

$61

Griffiths

 

 

Never Forget

17

8

$15

Moody

 

 

Biancon Rose

17

12

$26

Brideoake

16/2

B-S6

Doubtful Jack

16

2

$4.20

Schweida

 

 

Prost

13

5

$4.60

Thompson

 

 

Drumshanbo

12

10

$61

Henry

 

 

Summarise

19

11

$51

Hill

 

 

Havatryst

12

13

$26

Baldwin

 

 

Come Said The Boy

40

4

$31

P. Nolan Jnr

 

 

Captain Clayton

27

8

$26

Heathcote

 

 

Epic

19

7

$7

Schweida

 

S-D4

Southern Skye

39

9

$26

Perry

 

 

Ladys Angel

21

4

$18

Pride

 

 

Capital Commander

13

6

$21

Olive

 

 

Agister

18

1

$7.50

Denham

 

 

Superior Instinct

18

11

$31

Smith

 

M-G3

Chasm

13

5

$17

McCarthy

 

 

Go Katrina

12

9

$16

Eurell

 

 

Shewan

16

2

$11

Smerdon

 

 

Elusive King

13

4

$4.60

Moody

 

 

Red Shift

12

5

$15

Carey

 

 

Satin Shoes

16

4

$51

C. Conners

 

 

Top Drop

15

12

$71

Lawson

 

 

Its Prince

15

14

$201

Griffiths

 

 

Decircles

18

2

$2.50

O’Brien

 

 

Too Deadly

24

7

$17

Craven

 

 

Auld Burns

19

7

$9

Hayes

23/02

B-D5

Kar Ma Te

14

11

$41

Laming

 

 

Naynay

19

8

$41

Gafa

 

 

Chart

17

8

$14

Edmonds

 

 

Mule Forty Six

13

9

$51

Taylor

 

 

Domini

23

7

$51

Duff

 

 

Tomboy

12

11

$41

Heathcote

 

 

Joint Chiefs

16

5

$51

Wakefield

 

 

Silver Bullion

25

4

$11

Heathcote

 

 

Chandra

18

6

$26

Dann

 

 

Devils Melody

12

5

$12

Birchley

 

 

Bullet One

15

13

$41

Sears

 

S-H10

Brayroan

18

2

$101

Ruttley

 

 

Eigelstein

17

8

$15

Waller

 

 

Territory

28

9

$9

Austin

 

 

Albert The Fat

15

9

$18

Waller

 

 

Monton

14

11

$15

Quinton

 

 

Centennial Park

24

7

$16

Payne

 

 

Willy Jimmy

20

4

$41

Walter

 

 

Doctor Doom

16

12

$31

Walter

 

 

Hypurr

20

6

$8.50

Pride

 

 

Onthelookout

12

3

$21

Joseph

 

 

Jest Crewsin’

20

5

$10

Bowen

 

 

Stratford

13

4

$6

Hawkes

 

 

Stand To Gain

22

7

$31

Waller

 

 

Peck

19

5

$14

Snowden

 

M-G3

Cambiaso

16

13

$81

O’Brien

 

 

Giresun

13

2

$6.50

Snowden

 

 

Foreteller

16

1

$14

Waller

 

 

Prairie Star

21

6

$18

O’Brien

 

 

Glass Harmonium

15

2

$16

Moroney

 

 

Maluckyday

27

5

$101

Hawkes

 

 

Spirit of Boom

13

3

$11

T. Gollan

 

 

Facile Tigre

15

2

$15

McLachlan

 

 

Lone Rock

17

8

$12

Smerdon

 

 

Unanimously

13

6

$81

Dale

 

 

Never Forget

17

10

$13

Moody

 

So from just two months of surveyed Saturday metropolitan racing in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne (January 2013 and February 2013) a further 125 horses that hadn’t won for 52 weeks or more started in February 2013. Of those 125 horses only six or 4.80% won. The six that won in this month’s surveyed horses were Gundy Son, Population, Tokamak, Magic Weekend, Agister and Foreteller.

 

If a punter had $1 a win on the 125 “long term losers” that raced in February they’d obviously outlay $125 and the return including their $1 stake back was $45.50 so a punter would get 36.40% of their outlay back so they’d lose 63.60% of their stake.

 

So from the two months this story has been run on Justracing, no fewer than 238 “long term losers” have run and of the 238, only 11 have won, which means 4.62% of “long term losers” actually managed to win another Saturday city race, so conversely 95.38% lost, which shows punters what an exercise in futility the practice is.

 

Across the two months a $1 win bet on each horse would see $238 outlaid (113 in January and 125 in February) and the return including their $1 stake would be $94 ($48.50 in January and $45.50 in February) so a punter would get back 39.49% of their outlay, so conversely they’d lose 60.51% of their stake.

 

Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au I look at both the upcoming Capricornia Yearling Sale and Rockhampton news in general through the eyes of well-known Rockhampton couple Kerrod and Glenda Smyth. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s the story abouttwo very lengthy sentences handed down by stewards, plus there’s a story as well on the stallion dynasty that continues to grow around Lonhro, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls pens an interesting article when he looks at the double standards employed by Peter V’Landys about a racehorse named Black Caviar racing in South Africa, given that Australian racing officials had no problem basically ignoring the Hong Kong Jockey Club ruling in respect of the Chris Munce tipping saga some years ago.

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