06/03/13
On 7/2/2013 I penned the first of what will be a monthly story proving that it is financially a quick way to the poor house to back horses that haven’t won a race anywhere for the last 52 weeks or more, when those horses are contesting Saturday city races.
To have any remote chance of winning whilst punting over the course of a year, punters need to establish some “rules” to abide by. They may be not to back odds-on chances, not to bet on slow or heavy tracks, not to back horses resuming from a spell, not to back horses from certain overrated stables, etcetera, but not backing horses in Saturday city races that haven’t won in the last 52 weeks is a good rule to implement into one’s punting strategy. Like any other rule of punting, the odd one will win, but not enough will win to make you ever consider changing the rule once it’s been invoked.
The original story that I penned on the subject on 7/2/2013 can be read by clicking HERE.
Today I look back on “long term losers” that raced in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne Saturday races during the month of February 2013 and you’ll see a few familiar names that you regularly hear the “experts” tip, or that ill-informed punters back. The track rating at the end of the meeting is listed in the report along with the number of months since the horse has won, the name of the trainer, the place it ran on the day and the official starting price.
DATE
CITY
HORSE
MTHS SINCE WON
PLACING
PRICE
TRAINER
2/2
B-S6
Doubtful Jack
16
4
$4
Schweida
Gundy Son
20
1
$2.20
Heathcote
Maroon Bells
12
9
$26
McLachlan
World By Night
12
11
$201
Brown
Mule Forty Six
12
11
$101
Taylor
Mount Kosciuszko
16
12
$31
Costello
Jasminka
21
5
$17
S. Ryan
Warrior Girl
18
8
$31
Purdy
Noogoora Burr
13
9
$3.80
Lawlor
Love Laughing
13
11
$31
Hall
S-H10
Anything
20
8
$21
Sues
M-G3
Canali
13
2
$7
Brown
Cardinal Virtue
25
6
$26
Binaisse
Lucky Eighty Eight
15
7
$14
Ellerton
Boom ‘N’ Zoom
15
10
$12
Keys
Elusive King
13
3
$2.90
Moody
White Universe
17
6
$4.80
Moody
Scottish Border
23
8
$51
Warren
Val Mondo
28
9
$201
Purcell
Shewan
15
6
$17
Smerdon
Top Drop
15
11
$18
Lawson
Bigelow
23
7
$41
McDonald
Auld Burns
18
4
$41
Hayes
Population
12
1
$4.80
Freedman
9/2
B-G3
Count Encosta
34
3
$4.80
Thompson
Noogoora Burr
13
4
$10
Lawlor
Fitness Fanatic
22
2
$6
Heinrich
Naynay
19
7
$81
Gafa
Mirabeau
15
12
$151
Stephenson
Azzaland
21
5
$21
Stephenson
The Jackal
24
15
$81
St Vincent
Joint Chiefs
15
10
$31
Wakefield
Silver Bullion
25
8
$11
Heathcote
Prost
13
6
$14
Thompson
Dusty Gold
15
8
$6.50
Dunn
Tokamak
18
1
$9
Lockwood
S-G3
Misshiraz
12
9
$41
Frazer
Arms Length
13
3
$12
Goldman
Segue
13
2
$6
Snowden
Miss Diagnosis
19
6
$21
Pride
Silk Pins
15
4
$8.50
Waller
Ying La
16
8
$15
Delaney
Hatton Garden
21
6
$71
M. Smith
Kimberley Kid
20
7
$71
Payne
Albert The Fat
15
7
$8.50
Waller
Centennial Park
24
3
$7.50
Payne
Willy Jimmy
19
10
$26
Walter
Doctor Doom
16
9
$41
Walter
Jest Crewsin’
20
8
$51
Bowen
Bereft
19
4
$4.80
Snowden
Magic Weekend
12
1
$17
Hawkes
Mr Edison
13
3
$15
B. Cummings
Peck
19
9
$16
Snowden
Orthie’s Gem
18
12
$41
Neale
Jimmy Fortunes
13
6
$31
Clout
M-G3
Red Eye Special
16
7
$31
Moroney
Mister Milton
13
6
$10
Waymouth
Wall Street
27
4
$41
Moroney
Foreteller
15
5
$5.50
Waller
Good Ba Ba
37
9
$10
Hore-Lacy
Domesky
14
12
$101
Kent
Prairie Star
20
10
$5
O’Brien
Avionics
12
9
$61
Griffiths
Never Forget
17
8
$15
Moody
Biancon Rose
17
12
$26
Brideoake
16/2
B-S6
Doubtful Jack
16
2
$4.20
Schweida
Prost
13
5
$4.60
Thompson
Drumshanbo
12
10
$61
Henry
Summarise
19
11
$51
Hill
Havatryst
12
13
$26
Baldwin
Come Said The Boy
40
4
$31
P. Nolan Jnr
Captain Clayton
27
8
$26
Heathcote
Epic
19
7
$7
Schweida
S-D4
Southern Skye
39
9
$26
Perry
Ladys Angel
21
4
$18
Pride
Capital Commander
13
6
$21
Olive
Agister
18
1
$7.50
Denham
Superior Instinct
18
11
$31
Smith
M-G3
Chasm
13
5
$17
McCarthy
Go Katrina
12
9
$16
Eurell
Shewan
16
2
$11
Smerdon
Elusive King
13
4
$4.60
Moody
Red Shift
12
5
$15
Carey
Satin Shoes
16
4
$51
C. Conners
Top Drop
15
12
$71
Lawson
Its Prince
15
14
$201
Griffiths
Decircles
18
2
$2.50
O’Brien
Too Deadly
24
7
$17
Craven
Auld Burns
19
7
$9
Hayes
23/02
B-D5
Kar Ma Te
14
11
$41
Laming
Naynay
19
8
$41
Gafa
Chart
17
8
$14
Edmonds
Mule Forty Six
13
9
$51
Taylor
Domini
23
7
$51
Duff
Tomboy
12
11
$41
Heathcote
Joint Chiefs
16
5
$51
Wakefield
Silver Bullion
25
4
$11
Heathcote
Chandra
18
6
$26
Dann
Devils Melody
12
5
$12
Birchley
Bullet One
15
13
$41
Sears
S-H10
Brayroan
18
2
$101
Ruttley
Eigelstein
17
8
$15
Waller
Territory
28
9
$9
Austin
Albert The Fat
15
9
$18
Waller
Monton
14
11
$15
Quinton
Centennial Park
24
7
$16
Payne
Willy Jimmy
20
4
$41
Walter
Doctor Doom
16
12
$31
Walter
Hypurr
20
6
$8.50
Pride
Onthelookout
12
3
$21
Joseph
Jest Crewsin’
20
5
$10
Bowen
Stratford
13
4
$6
Hawkes
Stand To Gain
22
7
$31
Waller
Peck
19
5
$14
Snowden
M-G3
Cambiaso
16
13
$81
O’Brien
Giresun
13
2
$6.50
Snowden
Foreteller
16
1
$14
Waller
Prairie Star
21
6
$18
O’Brien
Glass Harmonium
15
2
$16
Moroney
Maluckyday
27
5
$101
Hawkes
Spirit of Boom
13
3
$11
T. Gollan
Facile Tigre
15
2
$15
McLachlan
Lone Rock
17
8
$12
Smerdon
Unanimously
13
6
$81
Dale
Never Forget
17
10
$13
Moody
So from just two months of surveyed Saturday metropolitan racing in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne (January 2013 and February 2013) a further 125 horses that hadn’t won for 52 weeks or more started in February 2013. Of those 125 horses only six or 4.80% won. The six that won in this month’s surveyed horses were Gundy Son, Population, Tokamak, Magic Weekend, Agister and Foreteller.
If a punter had $1 a win on the 125 “long term losers” that raced in February they’d obviously outlay $125 and the return including their $1 stake back was $45.50 so a punter would get 36.40% of their outlay back so they’d lose 63.60% of their stake.
So from the two months this story has been run on Justracing, no fewer than 238 “long term losers” have run and of the 238, only 11 have won, which means 4.62% of “long term losers” actually managed to win another Saturday city race, so conversely 95.38% lost, which shows punters what an exercise in futility the practice is.
Across the two months a $1 win bet on each horse would see $238 outlaid (113 in January and 125 in February) and the return including their $1 stake would be $94 ($48.50 in January and $45.50 in February) so a punter would get back 39.49% of their outlay, so conversely they’d lose 60.51% of their stake.
Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au I look at both the upcoming Capricornia Yearling Sale and Rockhampton news in general through the eyes of well-known Rockhampton couple Kerrod and Glenda Smyth. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s the story abouttwo very lengthy sentences handed down by stewards, plus there’s a story as well on the stallion dynasty that continues to grow around Lonhro, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls pens an interesting article when he looks at the double standards employed by Peter V’Landys about a racehorse named Black Caviar racing in South Africa, given that Australian racing officials had no problem basically ignoring the Hong Kong Jockey Club ruling in respect of the Chris Munce tipping saga some years ago.