ROSEHILL RACE 7 PREVIEW

Christmas Eve racing on Saturday and we head back to trusty old Rosehill with a True rail.

Chris Waller (pictured) trains Luke Murrell's on top tip in today's preview - Religify.

Chris Waller (pictured) trains Luke Murrell's on top tip in today's preview - Religify.

Normally with a true rail we end up horses drawn hard on the fence being disadvantaged and those in the running line but midfield or better getting the most advantages.

Therefore, a leg of the Quaddie this week is Race 7 and it looks a very nice race to focus on with some decent exposed form and after nailing the Friday night preview again last week we will attempt to keep the roll going.

Rosehill Race 7 Preview:

Horse

Normal Settles

Comment

Ecuador

Forward

Currently trading $9 to $10. The old boy seems like he has been around for ever and has been a grand old horse winning just under $700k. Race day we will see his price trade longer and I do like the jockey on board but he normally takes a run or two and I think he will find these two sharp from the gates and whilst he has a good record he might find these too slick being a bit older. However off his trial efforts I’d suggest he has never trialled as good and this indicates he is ready to rock n roll and if the leaders try to play “jockeys:” or ride too cute you can be sure Hyeronimus will take off early and make a sustained run on him. He is a genuine chance albeit at big odds but in this race first up is more a place chance.

Religify

On speed – controlling

Currently trading $3.30 to $3.80. 5th Up into this off 35 days doesn’t sound great for a high pressure race but he got this exact race shape back in March here over 1400m and he rated almost a career best. He sits outside Snoopy here and with Bowman on can definitely win. He has an amazing SP profile over most of his opposition here as well.

Snippets Land

Midfield

Currently trading $9 to $10. With the very real chance of fast speed and getting a pressure up front he gets plenty of ticks. He has always been a bit of a low animal but the last 2 preps Snowdens have improved him 10 lengths. The negatives are 2nd up on a fast tempo is not perfect- and he is a horrible 0 from 8 at the track and only 1 from 7 at the distance. He maps so good here I want to have him on my side but he is the type of horse you save on without backing him to win a good amount as his history says no. The trial he comes out of is brilliant and suggests he is up to the mark.

That’s a Good Idea

On speed

Currently trading $20 to $21. He is looking for a retirement home this fellow as he is about 10 lengths below what he did at his best. He has a rating back in January 2015 that would replicate what he will meet here and if he found that he would gap these- BUT January 2015 is a long time ago and like a lot of us we are not as good as we used to be. His career best runs have been in these hot tempo races – but it’s too long ago and given his recent form the retirement home beckons.

Bachman

Midfield

Currently trading $5 to $6. I initially wanted to find him but I’m not convinced that he is going as good as he was last prep. He gets lots of ticks being midfield saving ground on a fast tempo but I don’t think is going well enough and probably needs a career best to figure- some hope for a place but not winning and the price I feel is under his realistic odds of winning. Does profile like a bleeder and hence id want a bigger break between runs.

Dance on Stars

Last pair

Currently trading $21 to $29. Gets back so will like the tempo up front and with an apprentice (who is going ok) – he is another that is too far off his old form and is a pen job for me. 1 from 10 at the track and 0 from 8 distance also helps you pen him.

Snoopy

Leads

Currently trading $2.60 to $2.80. Whilst he looks the winner at first glance there is plenty to dislike. Tommy Berry is on and he will be dictated to by Religify and with them 2 on speed he gets put onto the fence and therefore loses the best Position in run. Is only 14 days between runs and in the last 28 days has had a 10-hour trip to Melbourne (where he brained them) and then has had another 10-hour trip back home. Those road trips can take a lot out of a horse and with so much pressure up front he will have his work cut out. On top of this those 2 runs have been run at amazingly fast sectionals early which has to take something out of the horse. In the positive column, he has rated best run of the day his last 2 runs and the weights punters will find him with the lighter weight compared to Religify. He must be respected but I suggest there is enough questions on him to save only if not lay.

Off the Rails

Midfield

Currently trading $41. Bjorn in the space of 4 weeks has gone from not being able to buy a winner to everything he touches is winning. However, he has a horse 273 days off the scene – who is 14 lengths at his best off the main chances here. Hopefully they alert the Ambulance drivers as he is going to be gasping for breath early and could easily come back through the windscreen at them.

Dylan’s Rojo

On speed

Currently trading at $26. How this is not $2600/1 is a mystery to me. His career best is about 6 lengths off what is needed to win here. The only kind thing I can say is Avdulla continues to prove why he is the best in Australia and his trainer Kim Waugh is also firing with her runners but surely this is a mistake. Perhaps Bjorn and Kim can have a head to head bet to see which horse beats the other home as they won’t get close here.

Summary: Whilst Snoopy on exposed form deserves to be favourite I’m happy to bet around him and think Religify – as long as his ridden aggressively is the better of the two chances at the odds and he will be the horse I’ll be betting to win a decent amount on. Snoopy can certainly win and if they overdo it Ecuador and Snippets Land are worth including and bigger prices. I’d suggest 3 units on Religify and expect I’ll get around $4.40 race day. 3 units to save on Snoopy who I also expect to drift to around $3.20. I would also look at a Standout Trifecta and have Religify and Snoopy for 1st / those two horses plus Ecuador and Snippets Land and Bachman for 2nd and 3rd for 3 units.

Preview brought to you by Luke Murrell: Luke is successful Professional Punter for the past 19 years and runs the highly successful www.australianbloodstock.com.au as well as providing tactical advice and analysis for jockeys, trainers and owners.

Merry Christmas to everybody and the best of luck if you are having a bet this weekend!!