WARWICK FARM RACE 3 PREVIEW

A lot of stock standard racing around the country Saturday with next Saturday the big Magic Millions day and all attention will be on HOUTZEN in at the Gold Coast on Saturday as she attempts to bank some more money in order to ensure she gets a run in the field next week.

Blake Shinn (pictured) rides Luke Murrell's tip Heartlings.

Blake Shinn (pictured) rides Luke Murrell's tip Heartlings.

She looks a good thing in her race but the question will be is she tough enough to back up 2 weeks in a row? I certainly hope she is as she will be a worthy contender.

Sydney Racing returns to Warwick Farm this weekend where we have a true rail and historically than means we are looking for horses running in the 2w running line rather than hard on the fence and then we want horses that cane swing down the middle 3-4 off the fence. The more rain or water on the track the worse it is with the firmer the ground the less biased

Warwick Farm looked a juicy card with a number of smaller – but evenly matched fields early on with a couple of “nightmare races to finish the quaddie with”.

One race that did catch my attention due to the price was Race 3 at Warwick Farm. It’s a good little race with a few too short and also has 1 -2 nice horses with plenty of questions to answer.

The projected speed is SNAIL SPEED in a race that is lacking horses with gate speed and any change of tactics will be most important.

Horse

Settles

Comment

Harlem Lady

Backmarker

Currently Trading $2.60 to $3. The Claim of 3kg of Lee Magorrian sees this in at 58.5kg and her previous big weight carrying runs have been ok with the only failure on a heavy track which she hated. Her two goes at slow run tempo races have been common as she prefers a more evenly run race. I mentioned a few weeks ago the Chris Waller stable could be in for a quiet time and that has certainly been the case with a few runners performing below expectations. All stables have them but it’s important when to spot them and because of these reasons I’d suggest the horse will drift in price and whilst it can win I’d rather chop out or be neutral on the horse.

Twist Tops

Forward and back

Currently Trading at $9. The Kris Lees runner is the big query. Stats show he is the best trainer of fillies and mares in Australia but I must admit to being surprised to see her show up her in a 1400m. Given she is knee high to a grasshopper I’d suggest with the 58.5kg on board she will revert to a more forward position and the big question is will we get good Schofield or bad Schofield. When he is on he is exceptional but he will need all his skill to help this little bulldog. Whilst weight is one of the most overrated things in racing I think its relevant in this case due to the horse’s stature. Whilst she has won the single race only she has banked close to $250k and this for her is down in grade and hence the big weight. She is a very consistent the horse and interesting that the bookies have not budged her at all. I’m loathe to pot them when the stable is going so well but in this instance I’d suggest she is poorly treated under the conditions of the race and the 1100m to 1400m would suggest she will improve. To many question marks though so happy for her to run against me.

Magicaz

Back or forward?

Currently Trading $3.50 to $4. She is unbeaten at the track and distance and jockey is 2 from 3 but I just can’t have her. Despite being unbeaten at the trip all her figures I have on her suggest she is a 1100m run on horse and it will be interesting to see what they do from the gate as she has the natural speed to lead them here- but most of her starts has seen her get right back (although 2 of 3 ford has ridden has seen her top 2 pairs in running). Her wins at 1400m have been in ordinary figures and she has not been strong to the line at all and whilst this race will be a very slow speed which really helps her (she has the best 200m sprint in the field) I’m not sold by any means. I expect the ‘morning line tipsters, along with system punters and weights and measures punters will all find her and she will come in for more support- however there are too many things against for me to play.

Heartlings

Forward of midfield to leading if she wants

Currently Trading $4.60 to $5. Gets a big tick with Shinn going on who is 10 from his last 50 rides and most of them ridden perfectly. To my eye she got galloped on last start so she is obviously a forgive run and she drops in grade for this. If you ignore her 3 stakes runs over similar distances then she has had 5 goes for 2 wins and 2 placings for this trip. Her firm track runs are fine and her only slowly run race was in the Group 3 when given none due to the ride and biased track. Her last two runs would win this prior to the last start excuse and at the $5 with Shinn hopefully sitting OSL and controlling things she looks a very good bet. Whilst they will only bet you 2 places I’d suggest the place dividend will be even better value. She is a major player and the one they all have to beat.

 

Lycia

Midfield

Currently Trading $5.50 to $6.50. By Medaglia D’oro who in Australia has been a flop despite being a champ in the USA. She is none from 10 on a good tracks and hasn’t missed a place on the wet. Given I’m working off a firm track she is a pen job- I expect the price will drift although she will know she has been around with the very impressive James Doyle on board (why he can’t get more rides is beyond me). The horse has never won with the weight and never been in a slow run race like this will be which is a bit unique- For me I can’t see her letting down unless it’s a dead 5 or worse and that means she is a “pen job”.

Roeinda

 

Currently Trading $7 to $7.50. 11 of Bjorn’s last 50 runners have run so the stable is going well and the horse is on a 7 day back up. What is interesting is the horse is a Lonhro Filly and the stats tell us that they are best when made fresh so combined with being 6th up on a 7day back up suggests she won’t improve much at all. The other worry is she has never won past 1100m (not unusual for Lonhro fillies). The horses only run at 1400m on paper looks great but worth remembering whilst that was a harder grade than this and she was only beaten 2.1 – she had blks again that day and found the lead on a moderate to even run race on a 6m Rosehill track which long term subscribers will know is FENCE ON FIRE so she was flattered. If I was given riding instructions it would to “ go to the front and ignore the other runners in the race and ride up tempo and try and gap them midrace and see if she can hold on “ as this would help her style and play into her hands of the fitness situation and the others who are distance doubts- but the conundrum we have is Collett whilst possibly the bravest rider in Australia normally is a get back style of stalking rider . Interesting runner all the same.

Miss Farloo

Midfield

Currently Trading $101. A decent enough record at the distance with 2 wins from 10 and 3 placings and gets a 2kg claim taking weight to 51kg. Unfortunately, she is not good enough and the trainer is obviously a smart enough bloke to realise by running her here she will pick up a minimum of $2k which is about 5% of her total lifetime earnings- plus he gets free entry to the races and her handicap should not be effected for next run- so a win all around- not a bad day out for him- but she is a pen job for us.

Overall it’s an interesting race with the clear on top pick for me being Heartlings. She has always shown stakes ability and if she is to do anything in her career it needs to be now and in this race and with plenty of question marks on the others she should be backed with confidence.

Preview brought to you by Luke Murrell: Luke is successful Professional Punter for the past 19 years and runs the highly successful www.australianbloodstock.com.au as well as providing tactical advice and analysis for jockeys, trainers and owners.

Good luck if you’re having a bet this week end!!