CANTERBURY RACE 6 PREVIEW......by Luke Murrell

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03/02/17

The terrific Canterbury night meetings continue and they are highlighted by the feature race being the Shooting Star which is a new initiative by racingnsw which should be applauded as this one has been a terrific success not just in betting turnover but also getting people (and importantly families) back to the track. Sponsored by Tooheys they certainly have created some good racing in recent weeks and largely having been dominated by the Kris Lees runners who have been so well placed in recent weeks.

This week’s feature Race is a small field but features a couple of horses at the top of their game

We are back to a 3 metre rail at Canterbury and this typically is MAD on speed and rails in running suited. The race we preview has just even speed at best so that suits the on-speed horses.

 

Horse

Settles

Comment

QUATRONIC

Scratched

DORF STAR

Worse than midfield

Best Price Anywhere $13. She is flying having won her last 3 but I dislike her racing pattern around this place when we have this rail. I’m loathe to oppose her but she meets too many here right at the top of their game. I’ve got her 4 lengths off the better ones here.

WAY TOO GOOD

Top 2 pairs

Best Price Anywhere $6. With Quatronic out this is one less horse that will drive her crazy and she will be hard on speed and this is a drop in grade after coming off a high rating race last time behind Samantha. The current price is amazing value and I have her priced nearly half this. Can be heavily supported with confidence.

MACHINE GUN JUBS

Top 2 Pairs

Best Price Anywhere $3.20. Possible leads them here but I admit I’m surprised she is this short and in my book she is a big distance doubt on what she has done to date. She is a chance but surprised if she starts this price and suggest if you like her you wait.

DIRECT STRATEGY

Lead or OSL

Best Price Anywhere $10. She will want to be close to the speed but she is not that fast from the gates so may be outside her comfort zone from the outset. Won its last two but doubt it will be winning 3 in a row. Can’t win.

TAJ MAHAL

Worse Than Midfield

Best Price Anywhere $4.80. Yet another high priced yearling for the China Horse Club and another example of just because you spend a lot of money on a yearling doesn’t make them fast. His in a good stable but trainers can’t make them run faster and I’m surprised he is 2nd favourite. He has some sexy form on paper last start that is actually fairly hollow. I’ve seen a few things in the trials I dislike and just like the favourite I dislike him at the price. His true odds should be closer to $9. He gets back and whilst not impossible to see him win I’m not in his corner as I think he is a gunna and a pack chaser.

MODHA

Last pair

Best Price Anywhere $10. My main issue is she gets back but James Innes is a very much improved rider and gets 2kg off- it won’t hurt her at all and she also gets blinkers OFF. I thought pre speed map she was a top 2 chance but I worry that her efforts in slowly run races have been against her and have been some of her worst. Better than most here but the track, rail and speed are all against hence you’re getting a price.

 

SEARGENT DOAKES

Midfield to worse than midfield

Best Price Anywhere $14. Gets back but wouldn’t get 1250m pushed off a plane 1300m up in the air- a Terrific bush brumby but will find these too hard.

UPSTART

Last

Best Price Anywhere $9. Comes up here very short but does have K McEvoy who if he isn’t the most consistent jockey in Australia then his in the top 2 with B Avdulla. The problem UPSTART supporters have is it comes out of the gates like an old man getting out of bed and then takes a lot of riding to muster. I tipped to clients in the Magic Millions Country Cup race last start and it was a certainty beaten but again it will have to give many lengths up with a number of things against it. It can win if McEvoy saves every inch of ground but I think Kris Lees consecutive run of city winners will be broken here. Look for it in the provincial Championships as I think it will be a great chance later on.

In summary, the horse by far best suited is WAY TOO GOOD and I’d recommend 4 units on her to win and $6 units the place as she will have to get knocked over to not run a drum.

Profit Update:

To prove that people can make money betting horses we will be providing a running balance of our recommended bets for the free preview we offer weekly.  Last week we tried to land a big collect but were let down by the Godolphin horse and are only showing 1 unit profit but for anyone who wants to win consistent money the paid service has made a profit the last 19 years we have a great offer coming up when the new site goes live the week of February 13 so keep an eye out for that.

Preview brought to you by Luke Murrell: Luke is successful Professional Punter for the past 19 years and runs the highly successful www.australianbloodstock.com.au  as well as providing tactical advice and analysis for jockeys, trainers and owners.

For those interested in the NRL season kicks off this week with the Nine's tournament in Auckland. Only a few teams look to be taking it seriously and with so much luck involved in these nine's games it's not to be taken seriously in regards to form or as a betting proposition. We'll look to kick off our system once the NRL season proper kicks off in early March.

For those looking for a bit of betting interest on the tournament, I'd suggest treating as a bit of a novelty on the futures market and look for a bit of value rather than going too hard at the individual game markets.

 Broncos and Cowboys have sent their best teams over and look to be having a serious crack at winning the tournament. They look good things to top their respective pools so I'd suggest backing them to top their individual pools and have a dabble on the overall winner market.

 Bit of a lottery but plenty of value in the top tournament try scorer markets and 3 suggestions below.

 $12 has been available on the flying Gideon Gela-Mosby from the Cowboys who has pace to burn and will score plenty as the Cowboys progress through the tournament.

Joseph Manu from the Roosters is good value at $51. Needs a bit of luck for the Roosters to progress through to finals and hopefully get plenty of time on the park if the Roosters don't play too conservative.

Another new young flyer at $67 is Tyrone Roberts-Davis from the Titans (not to be confused with his cousin the halfback Tyrone Roberts) and again just needs to get his fair share of time on the park to rack up a few tries. Again, just treat this tournament as a bit of a novelty and we'll get serious next month when the season proper kicks off.

Best of luck for the week end and happy punting!!