MOONEE VALLEY RACE 6 PREVIEW......by Luke Murrell

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20/01/17

Sydney Racing this weekend is back at Randwick where we have the rail in the true. When we have this situation it’s a place where you need to be on speed but the Hard Inside is not the place to be and horses that come 3-5 wide seem to have 1-3 lengths on those hard on the fence.

Sydney have a number of interesting races with the best each way value chance being Princefamous in the Carrington Stakes – however after getting the First 4 in the Magic Millions 2yr old event last week correct plus nailing the winner a few weeks out at $9 to $11. As a professional Punter, it’s not all good times but pleasing to see so many emails and calls from people who are doing well both from the Friday night preview and also my clients who pay for the regular mail service. 2016 provided our 19th straight year of profit with paying members winning $19,636 on average with 2017 thankfully already up over $4,000 in the first few weeks. (For further info on how to subscribe with a FREE 1 MONTH trial contact us by email justracing@mail.com )

Whilst not the most clear cut betting race this week around Australia I thought I’d preview a race from Melbourne this weekend as we have had a few requests and the most interesting race on the card is the 2040m race in which I happen to own the clear favourite and whilst nothing makes a horse run faster than through the eyes of an owner I can say that is not the case in this instance with me.

True Rail at Mooney Valley- is normally fairly even and most should get their chance.

Moonee Valley Race 6: Schweppes Sparkling Handicap

 

Horse

Normally Settles

Comment

Cool Chap

Back or forward

Currently trading at $4.40 to $4.6. Has been smashed with 63kg here but gets 3kg off. Whilst he went back last time I’d be amazed if they didn’t ride to lead and really run them along with an inexperienced rider. He represents the main danger to the favourite but I expect his current price will drift – as most punters shy away from higher weighted horses especially over a trip.

Hursley

Worse than Midfield

Currently trading at $26 to $31.Goes from Leigh Roche to C Williams and Rosehill to Mooney Valley- both massive ticks but the issue was he was $61 SP and the 8.8 length beaten margin. His old form is good enough to be in the finish but is desperate for some give in the track (his head action and leg angulation says he feels the firm). This is the best roughie in the race but normally gets back. Any rain around and include him.

Shakipour

2nd or 3rd pair

Currently trading at $7 to $8. As all Weir horses are is very fit but his last 3 are from SA or midweek and he is also back in distance which is never ideal. Is only 1 from 11 at the trip so I’d suggest he won’t be suited here. In saying that on his current form is 3rd rated here.

Valediction

Midfield here

Currently trading at $61 to $101. Beaten 150 lengths in his last 2 starts and is only using this to get ready for a hurdles campaign. The old Valediction used to go ok- but I used to be good once too – Pen Job.

Carlo Bugatti

Out the Back

Currently trading at $15 to $26. Talking of jumpers this one is crying out for the sticks- I can’t believe he is not triple figures and is a Pen Job also.

Big Duke

Midfield to forward of midfield

Currently trading at $2 to $2.10. His stablemate Plein Ciel has been getting all the fanfare but mark my words this horse is at least his equal. Is a genuine stayer so will not find the distance a worry and even without my owners goggles on – don’t be surprised if you see this fellow end up in a Sydney Cup and Caulfield Cup. Is still very inexperienced but is the most talented horse in the field and Weir has the Launceston and Hobart Cups pencilled in if he gets through this. As a bonus he gets the best apprentice I’ve seen in Melbourne since Seb Murphy and its criminal he is still allowed to claim 2kg as he is a star in the making if he keeps his head down.

Use the Lot

On speed

Currently trading at $34 to $41.Whilst he can’t win he is a good place chance and the horse is going well albeit can be hit and miss as evidenced by recent form of 8-2-14-1.

Post D’ France

Last pair to worse than midfield

Currently trading at $51 to $91. Blinkers go on but he couldn’t win.

Sherlock Holmes

Midfield to worse than Midfield

Currently trading at $8 to $11. Is an interesting runner from Williams / Hickmont yard. His European form is horrible in that he hasn’t run time, the form around him is no good but he shows up gelded and having his first run for 18 months. Even race fit I couldn’t have him. I’d suggest the price is missing a zero and that he is just going around for a day out.

Credition

Midfield or to touch closer

Currently trading at $7 to $10. He maps very well for this and is proven at a fast run race or a dawdle. His got some ability but place looks best.

Morning Sunshine

Currently trading at $31 to $41. Not today Sunshine.

In summary Big Duke looks the winner here on exposed form and ability and I’d suggest 4 units on him at the $2. Cool Chap is the danger and if we got a wet track Hursley could do something.

Preview brought to you by Luke Murrell: Luke is successful Professional Punter for the past 19 years and runs the highly successful www.australianbloodstock.com.au   as well as providing tactical advice and analysis for jockeys, trainers and owners.

Good luck and happy punting!!