ROSEHILL GARDENS RACE 6 PREVIEW......by Luke Murrell

9.jpg

27/01/17

Saturday the 28th of January sees racing return to Rosehill where we meet a True rail and a week where there has been some rain about.

Traditionally the rail at Rosehill when its sent back to the true position is quicksand and this is made worse when any rain is around – so I’d suggest we want to avoid those drawn to sit the fence and rather find middle barriers and horses who can sit forward of midfield.

The other issue Rosehill has is between the 800 to 400m the track can on occasions play 3 and 4 ratings points worse than the official rating. This is especially worth taking note of when we encounter rain as what happens is in most races with the track diameter being what it is- we find that the leaders naturally go out even from the gates in most races and approaching the 800m mark like in most races they try and get a breather and it just so happens they are eased as they approach this part of the track and hence get an easy time through testing conditions. As the jockeys approach the bend and balance up on the leaders they then encounter the firmer ground and this enables them to sprint away. On the flip side the backmarkers are bludging out the back most of the race and as the leaders approach the 800m the jockeys on the backmarkers start to get itchy and make their move. However the issue is as they themselves approach the 800m mark they are still at full exertion but then they hit the worse conditions and it’s a massive drain on their energy reserves and as a result takes away from their finishing speed- where the leaders have had an easier time through the wetter conditions and hence have more energy to finish the race off with. Hence you find horses who take off early from the back and especially try and circle the field early find it impossible to win. As a result the only way for backmarkers to win is they need a packed field and also a nurse through the worse conditions and basically hold up and cut the corner and balance up in the straight to have any hope. The other issue that happens a lot is the leading jockeys “anchor drop” and this is when they deaccelerate too much and the leading pack of horses play follow the leader and they lose all momentum. It’s like driving a Mack truck doing 100klm and then slam the breaks on and bring the speed back to 40klm – most horses (except WFA) find the drop too severe and as a result get run over late both those back in the field who haven’t slowed as dramatically and hence can accelerate off a higher base. Some jockeys are renowned for doing it and others rarely do it and it’s a big advantage to know what to expect when doing the form

The main race of the card is the EXPRESSWAY Stakes run at Group 2 level worth $115,000 to the winner

 

Horse

Settles

Comment

Music Magnate

Top 2 in running?

Currently Trading at $1.95 to $2.10. The Doomben 10,000 winner here for the stable running ok at 14% for the last 50 runners. Amazingly the form guide says gelded which is strange for a Group 1 winner albeit he doesn’t have a great pedigree and they all can’t be stallions. 231 days off is a concern in a 1200m race which are extremely hard to win first up- but the horse has some real quality and is on the up. Importantly his two trials have been in fast time albeit I dislike seeing 741 and 900m trials for a 1200m resumption. It says the horse will be underdone or perhaps the trainer is worried the horse won’t be sharp enough if he trialled him over further. He is only $2 due to the lack of opposition but will need a proactive ride all the same from perhaps Australia’s most inform jockey in K McEvoy.

Kuro

3rd pair fence

Currently Trading at $4.40 to $5.50. He offers consistency and race fitness but comes out of the over hyped Joe Pride yard (currently doing well at 16% the last 50 runners). To be fair he has improved the horse from Freedman’s however I just feel the horse is better on a firm and will be more than likely stuck on the fence here.

Ball of Muscle

Leads

Currently Trading at $5.50 to $6. Had an easy run on speed last time and really this horse is in a Wheelchair and is looking for the retirement paddock. Has been an amazing horse but his about 8 lengths below where he used to race. He again gets a soft lead. Hasn’t won since in close to 2 years so happy to oppose him.

 

Big Money

Last

Currently Trading at $14. Another old warrior that is past his best- to make matters worse is no good on rain effected ground. Gets blinkers on and this is the first time I’ve seen him get them – so interesting for that aspect however I could only entertain him on a firm and then only for a place.

 

Handfast

3rd Pair -2wide

Currently Trading at $6.50 to $7.50. If he had got blinkers on instead of off, he would have been on top. O’Shea yard is a massive 28% winners the last 50 and I thought he trialled well (albeit in softer trials). To this point he hasn’t been any star but this is a great chance for him to pinch a big race.

 

Attention

OSL or 1 out 1 back

Currently Trading at $9 to $12. Was an overrated 2yr old – and his price reflects that but often that 2yr old form is best ignored as they can improve out of sight. Initially I was happy to pen him due to him being Attention and also the 231 days off – but has had 2 trials back in August and then 2 more recently so has been in and out a few times and will have good fitness. On trial times alone his last trial was far superior to Music Magnate despite what it looked like visually. For the time of the year is poorly in – but given a few of these are in wheelchairs he is a place chance.

Often these little fields are ignored by punters but one very successful angle is to try and pick the trifecta or first 4 “blonk” and instead of having a straight win bet – you can often get some great dividends.

Therefore, my suggested betting strategy this week would be as follow is:

Standout Trifecta

1 from 5 from 6 - 2 units

1 from 5 from 3 –1 unit

5 from 1 from 6 – 1 unit

5 from 1 from 3 – 1 unit

This way we are taking on Kuro and Big Money and if we can get the Trifecta we might get a result for the 5-unit outlay.

Last week

Last week our selection BIG DUKE got a bad ride by young Ben Allen but was still too good. Just on Ben Allen – whilst he is still learning he will still make mistakes but I consider him to be in the top 3 riders on skill and ability and for lack of errors in Melbourne. 

Therefore, with the recommended bet from last week the profit sits at 6 units and we will keep an ongoing total for the year.

Preview brought to you by Luke Murrell: Luke is successful Professional Punter for the past 19 years and runs the highly successful www.australianbloodstock.com.au  as well as providing tactical advice and analysis for jockeys, trainers and owners.

Good luck and happy punting!!