Australian Cup Preview... By Luke Murrell

Humidor the race favourite for tomorrow's Australian Cup. Photo courtesy of Geo Hillis Photography.

Humidor the race favourite for tomorrow's Australian Cup. Photo courtesy of Geo Hillis Photography.

Racings focus this week end will be on the two Big Group 1 events at the home of racing in Flemington whilst up in Sydney the major attraction will be the Group 1 Coolmore Classic for Fillies and Mares. The weather gods certainly haven’t been kind in Sydney with another rain effected track to be served up. Alternatively, they will be racing on a good surface in at Flemington again this week end. Who said Sydney had better weather over Melbourne?

The race Luke Murrell has decided to preview this week end is the Group 1 Australian Cup as it does look down on quality and chances on previous years. Most Australian Cups are run at a good tempo and this year’s edition looks no different.

Australian Cup Preview Race 8 Flemington:

HorseSettlesComment
STRATUM STAROn speed/ Forward of MidfieldBest Price is $6.50 Bet Now. An amazing training effort by Weir to keep this horse going for so long at the top level. His greatly underrated and can eat up as much pressure as you can throw at him. He is a chance but I do like 1-2 others ahead of him as the last 100m will see him vulnerable.
AWESOME ROCKForward midfieldBest Price Is $18 Bet Now. I must admit I really like this horse as an animal. Is a long way from top draw but has been unlucky in his career and cruelly lost this race on protest last year. Unfortunately, he is going no good despite him loving this track and distance and I can't have him at all.
THE UNITED STATES (IRE)Worse than MidfieldBest Price is $8 Bet Now. On his day is in the top 4 horses in Australia. Second up here is the worry after he was huge first up. His too good to discount so can win.
MOURINHOOn paceBest Price is $101 Bet Now. Been a great old campaigner but wouldn't win with a head start on current form- albeit his last run he was given no chance by the jockey setting a hot speed.
ECUADOR (NZ)On speedBest Price is $17 Bet Now. Another really game tough old bugger. Comes out of a good Futurity but has to go from 1400m to 2000m on a fast pace so happy to let him go although he will beat more home than beat him.
EXOSPHERIC (GB)BackBest Price is $9 Bet Now. He did no work at all first up on a hot tempo so naturally caught the eye late when flashing down the outside. Looking at the sectionals I thought he may have done a touch more. His best form though would see him run over the top of them here but that was with Sir Michael Stoute and if there is one Englishman who can really train it is Sir Michael as he is a genius. He will flash late again and could win but he will need to improve a little on his first up run. His profile and history says he can do this and is a legitimate chance.
TALLYMidfieldBest Price is $18 Bet Now. I thought he ran up to his best in the Peter Young. Is a Genuine Group 3 horse getting found out in the Group 1 grade. Can't win.
   
TOM MELBOURNE (IRE)On speedBest Price is $18 Bet Now. His best rating is still 5 lengths off most of these horse's average ratings. I give him no hope.
BOOM TIMEOn speedBest Price is $41 Bet Now. Comes out of a high rating race and has won 4 of his last 5. The times from that last run measure up ok here and he is definitely value for exotic players. I still can't have him winning but he will run top 5 and easily fill a hole at huge odds.
HUMIDOR (NZ)Midfield to worse than MidfieldBest Price is $5 Bet Now. He runs around like a Drunken Sailor in the straight but he will love Flemington and he has a real sense of timing. Weir will certainly have him fit enough- he is a genuine 2000m plus horse and as long as the speed remains consistent Lane will only need him to run straight to be winning.
JAMEKAOn speedBest Price is $5. Bet Now. I have to admit I don't like her as short as the market has her. She has returned in fine fettle but I like her around a circle track more so than these big open tracks. She has been well managed but I don't want to know her here from that draw and the way the race sets up.
REAL LOVEMidfield/ Forward of midfieldBest Price is $21 Bet Now. She should be $51 as whilst she is honest she is handicap type horse for mine and this will be too rich for her liking.

Summary:

The race has the main chances of The United States, Exospheric and Humidor with chances to Stratum Star, Boom Time and Jameka. At the prices, I’d have 2 units on the USA ($8) and 2 units on Humidor ($5) and 1 unit the place on Boom Time at the $10 mark.

Last Week:

After Le Romain got the chocolates we are back to being plus 1 unit in front.

If you would like to get my full set of selections which last week returned over $2000 and profit sits at $6,500 for the year head to the profit centre for Luke Murrell Yearly Horse selections where Luke and Just Racing offer a $1000 cash refund if you don’t win after 12 months along with a 1 month free trial!!!! Luke’s service has shown a profit each year for the past 19 years!!

Preview brought to you by Luke Murrell: Luke is successful Professional Punter for the past 19 years and runs the highly successful www.australianbloodstock.com.au  as well as providing tactical advice and analysis for jockeys, trainers and owners.

Also, don’t forget to take advantage of the great bonus bet offers currently being provided  by CrownBet and Luxbet , use the offers available to build your Autumn war chest!!

As always good luck and happy punting this week end!!!