Can You Win On The Punt In The Wet

Phelan Ready who won the Golden Slipper in 2009 on heavy track as tipped by Phil Purser. Photo courtesy Ross Stevenson

Phelan Ready who won the Golden Slipper in 2009 on heavy track as tipped by Phil Purser. Photo courtesy Ross Stevenson

With next Saturday’s Rosehill meeting assured of being run on a really rain affected track (officially it was a heavy 9 this morning at 7.55am) punters tend to shy away from getting involved in betting at the meeting, but there’s one person who reckons if we could run thoroughbred race meetings on soft and heavy tracks that his clients could win most race days. He’s Phil Purser the now 61-year-old who owned this website for 20 years before having to close it down in the latter half of due to a health issue. Phil is still doing client reports which can now be bought through this website and one of those reports is his Saturday Morning Mail service. The night before the 2009 Golden Slipper, Phil famously did a Justracing website preview of the world’s richest 2YO race whereby he stated publicly that two horses that were both 50/1 fixed odds at the time were the best two bred wet trackers in the race. It’s history now that those two horses – Phelan Ready and Headway –ran the quinella in the Group1 feature on an official heavy 9 track. Such was the following of the website that on race day both horses started at 25/1.

In his 2006 published book Purser researched the backgrounds of progeny – both from a sire and broodmare perspective - of over 600 stallions that had stood in Australia and New Zealand and that work became the pre-cursor to “wet track sires” analysis that is done around Australia today in several outlets.

The stars are in alignment for Saturday Morning Mail to have a big day this Saturday after both “best bets of the day” won last Saturday and the 25/1 boilover winner of the Group 1 Coolmore Classic – Heavens Above - was advised as one of only three winning chances on the prevailing soft track in that race. Still on the wet Sydney track last Saturday and he also advised clients that odds-on favourite Antonio Giuseppe was “no put-in-take-out job” and instead accurately advised clients to back $18 chance, Allergic, each way.

Saturday Morning Mail previews every horse across 8 races and it’s emailed out to clients at 9.30am Queensland time on Saturday race days, after final scratching s and track ratings are known.

I spoke to Phil this morning and he told me that all 8 races in next Saturday’s report will be done on the Rosehill Golden Slipper meeting and that “the Winx race won’t be one of the 8”.

If you think that your punting profitability would improve with comprehensive race day previews like these below from Group 1 races that were run last Saturday, Saturday Morning Mail costs $999 for 50 weeks subscription or $99 per month and joining can be done through the Profit Centre. Click here to join now: https://justracing.com.au/saturday-morning-mail

The Saturday Morning Mail preview of the Coolmore Classic, which narrowed the race down to just 3 winning chances in the 19-horse field for Quadrella players read:

ROSEHILL Race 7 - 4:15PM GROUP 1 QUALITY 3YO+ F&M COOLMORE CLASSIC (1500 METRES)

HORSECOMMENT
FIRST SEALScratched from Race 8 at Randwick on 25/2/17, presumably because of a wet track, so I couldn't have her first-up, in a Group 1 race, on a wet track, over 1500 metres.
DIXIE BLOSSOMSRomped in by 6.5 lengths at Randwick on a heavy 10 as the $3.10 favourite 14 days ago and she's bred to be a duck, so she can win again. Her sole negative is she's never won when third-up like she is today, but until Hilary summated Everest - he hadn't.
IN HER TIMEIs going for 5 wins in a row here after getting home for us as the best bet of the day last start at $7.50 when she was handed that race on a silver platter via an easy lead, so given she's never won past 1300m, today's 1500m would have to make her a distance query.
GLOBAL GLAMOURHad her chance when she led on a heavy 9 at Randwick in the Surround Stakes 14 days ago and got run down late. Drawn awkwardly here, so she may have to do some work in the run, which will make her task harder.
HEAVENS ABOVEHer CV says she 1) adores Rosehill (finished top-two at 5 of 8 starts), 2) adores soft tracks (only missed a place once in 4 starts), 3) has not finished further back than second at this track and distance and 4) has never finished further back than second when second-up like she is today, so she's boilover material at bolters odds.
SINGLE GAZEHasn't won a race anywhere for 365 days as at 26/3/17 and did nothing first-up when seventh of 12 to In Her Time to suggest she could get in the finish here.
LA BELLA DIOSAA Kiwi trained filly that is bred to be a duck. She made it 4 wins in a row when she made her Australian debut after 15 weeks off at Randwick in the Group 2 Surround Stakes 14 days ago. She's unbeaten on soft and heavy, so she could go right on with the job here.
DANISH TWISTHas been unplaced at each of her last 4 runs even though she was right in the market at 3 of those 4 starts, so I couldn't give her more than a place chance here, as she's a handy mare when the stars are in alignment.
SILENT SEDITIONA model of consistency having only missed a place once in her 14-start career. Had an easy time in front when she won last start at Caulfield. Her negatives today are that she 1) makes her clockwise debut here, 2) has never started on a rain affected track and 3) she has a horror barrier, so I'm looking elsewhere for the winner.
FRENCH EMOTIONHer two runs back from 14 weeks off have resulted in well beaten eighths to In Her Time - so she couldn't win.
EURO ANGELHad every chance when she resumed from 16 weeks off to run an easily beaten second to In Her Time here 21 days ago, so I couldn't have her winning this Group 1 feature.
THAMES COURTHasn't won a race anywhere for 365 days as at 24/3/17 and makes her clockwise debut here. Her 2 runs back from a spell have seen her unfit first-up, prior to her good run last start behind Silent Sedition at Caulfield in the Mannerism. Drops 5kgs here, so she's a must include in all exotics, given she's yet to finish further back than second on soft ground. Is beautifully drawn to get a cosy run up on the speed.
ZANBAGHHasn't won a race anywhere for 365 days as at 26/3/17. Resumed from a spell to get beaten 6 lengths by Dixie Blossoms at Randwick 14 days ago and she's never run top-two in 8 goes when second-up, like she is today, so hardly.
OMEI SWORDResumed from 24 weeks off and went for a bath in betting before she charged home late to get beaten 1.5 lengths by Kiwi visitor La Bella Diosa 14 days ago. Meets that filly 2kgs better here, but La Bella Diosa is drawn well today and Omei Sword has drawn awfully, so I think wherever they finish La Bella Diosa will beat her home again today, yet Omei Sword is a very short priced favourite.
ABBEY MARIEA talented Victorian trained mare that is yet to start in the clockwise direction and nor has she started on a rain affected track, so I'll pass.
DENMAGICThis mare 1) hasn't won a race anywhere for over 14 months, 2) has only won 1 of 7 on soft ground and 3) she's never finished top-two in 6 starts here - so no.
DAYSEE DOOMHad every chance when she ran third to In Her Time at this track over 1300m some 21 days ago. Is fitter today and has exemplary soft track stats, but she's not won beyond 1400 and this is 1500, so she's a distance query.
SOLD FOR SONGIs yet to win above Listed level, so she should be outclassed here on that score. In fact, her only positive is that she's only missed a place once in 4 starts on soft ground. Pacifiers go on for the first time today.
SHILLELAGHAdores soft tracks (won 4 of 7) but she's done nothing at 2 runs back from a spell to suggest she could get into the finish here.
Additional comments: One of in racebook order - Dixie Blossoms, Heavens Above or La Bella Diosa.

The Saturday Morning Mail preview of the Group 1 Australian Cup read:

FLEMINGTON Race 8 - 4:35PM GROUP 1 AUSTRALIAN CUP (2000 METRES)

HORSECOMMENT
STRATUM STARWent 14 months without winning a race between 10/15 and 12/16 yet he's suddenly going for 4 wins in a row today, but had his stablemate Humidor run straight last start, Stratum Star would have been beaten - in my opinion. He's not a horse of mine.
AWESOME ROCKBlinkers go on again today whilst cheekers go on for the first time today and the Norton bit comes off. Didn't do enough when beaten 4.5 lengths by Stratum Star last start to suggest he could get into the finish here.
THE UNITED STATESA talented Group 1 WFA winner that resumed from 16 weeks off to run a long head and a long neck third in the Peter Young at Caulfield 14 days ago. Has never finished further back than second in 4 second-up runs, so he'll give this race a shake.
MOURINHOHasn't won a race anywhere for over 17 months and he's been unplaced at 6 of his last 7 starts, so he's no hope.
ECUADORLed and got run down by both Black Heart Bart and Tosen Stardom in the Futurity at Caulfield 14 days ago over 1400m and now jumps to 2000. Is yet to finish further forward than third in 4 WFA runs, so third is as close as I could see him finishing here.
EXOSPHERICHad a flashing beacon on him when he hit the line hard late resuming from 16 weeks off at 20/1 to finish 1.5 lengths off Stratum Star in the Peter Young at Caulfield 14 days ago. Has previously won second-up like he is today, so he can be in the finish.
TALLYHasn't won a race anywhere for 365 days as at 18/3/17 and he's simply not classy enough to be a WFA horse - so no.
TOM MELBOURNEHasn't won a race anywhere for 365 days as at 18/3/16 and has been unable to get within 3 lengths of Humidor at his last 2 starts, so he couldn't win, even with Boss returning to ride him.
BOOM TIMEWon and ran fast overall time when he scored at Caulfield 14 days ago, but he now jumps 3.5kgs to have his first WFA run, so I'd put a line through him.
HUMIDORA top-class galloper in the making if ever I saw one and I don't talk up many of them, but he does things wrong in his races. He's gone down in a close photo finish at his last 2 starts to stablemates at Caulfield, but he gets his chance to make himself a headline horse today at this bigger track.
JAMEKADid a bit of work in the run last start when she ran fourth in the Peter Young to Stratum Star. Her best fresh run is historically third-up like she is today, so she's got an each way chance.
REAL LOVESCRATCHED.

Clients were then told Humidor was one of the best bets of the day.

On the Saturday prior (4/3/17), Saturday Morning Mail clients got advised to have 75% of their normal bet on Inference in the Group 1 Randwick Guineas before he won that race at a starting price of $9.50. The race day comments on Inference, once again using Purser’s knowledge of wet track sires read:

INFERENCEWasn't suited when there was no early pace on and he resumed from 16 weeks off in the Hobartville Stakes at Rosehill 14 days ago, when he was backed from $10 to $6.50 late. That significant betting move, allied with the fact that he's from the astute John Hawkes stable, says he should be hard to beat if he handles the prevailing track condition. Has won 2 of 3 on soft ground and is yet to start on heavy, but he's bred to be a duck in his first 4 generations, except for his grandmother being by Royal Academy, so I'd take a punt that he'd handle any track rating you throw at him.

In the race prior to Inference on 4/3/17, the Group 2 Challenge Stakes, English won at a top fluc of $5.50 on the heavy track, even though she’d never started on a heavy track before this day. This is how the summary of that race read:

Additional comments: Two proven top class sprinters start here, in racebook order, Supido, and English. Both are in stables that I rate, so all things being equal, the winner should be in that duo, but the really wet track is the unknown variable. English is bred to be a duck, and Waterhouse would be a total fool starting her, if she wasn’t fit enough to cop the heavy track, so I’d back English win only.

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