With the Weekend racing complete I thought I would save- a few hours of hard work for punters and summarise the races in an effort to help you avoid some losers moving forward. Racing NSW deserves a lot of credit for their replays and ability to recall races and they certainly make things a lot easier for the punter.
Track Overall: As can be expected the track hard the fence was not as good as it was 10 wide and as per usual riding into the bend and then running on proved to be highly taxing with really only Gingernuts being able to overcome things. It’s worth remembering beaten margins on heavy tracks are very deceiving so take them with a grain of salt going forward.
Race 1: Time was sensational for the day and highest rating race on the day. Both 1st and 2nd look Group 1 horses in the making although for pre-post punters L Williams has said Our Century will go to the paddock and be set for the Melbourne Cup and off the times here – he deserves to be in the top few lines of betting. Big Duke I thought had to do more work than second horse and was clearly disadvantaged 3 times in the straight. He deserves to be 2nd favourite in the Sydney Cup and can win it. Click here for full replay: http://bit.ly/2n7zW8N
Race 2: Rainment was exceptional here sitting OSL (which is extremely hard to do) – she showed a great kick and perhaps was advantaged by the conditions. Notice how she kicks clear when balanced – clearly run of the race. Zestful was very good considering she was not suited in the ground one bit. Click here for full replay: http://bit.ly/2nXJZuV
Race 3- The race was won by Derryn in rubbish figures and he did well to finish the race off but he is the one that handled the track better than the rest. Improvement has had way too many runs for a 1st prep and being given no favours by connections. If they put her away she will win a nice race one day- but keep running her and she will have nothing left in my opinion. Tactical Advantage looks gone this prep and needs a spell as that was run 5. Crafty Cop ok for weaker. Click here for full replay: http://bit.ly/2n7C3cZ
Race 4- Antonio was good here leading them up and whilst I’m not his biggest fan Angland rode this a peach- he tried to catch them out on the bend and it was a worth a go. The horse is going well- he deserves to be favourite for the Sydney Cup but is a huge distance doubt all the same. The figures from the race where only average and ranked 5th of the 10 races on the day. A good effort from the winner but if you had seen the horse in Europe it was no surprise, he still isn’t where he was in Europe before coming to Australia but it is his second G1 win in Australia. All in all, it’s good to see the horse improve but let’s hope for the horse’s sake they don’t try him in a Sydney Cup as in my view he won’t get the distance. His race is the BMW if they get a heavy track which they should. He will be very hard to beat. Hartnell was ordinary and is overrated as he is a flat track bully. Where they go with him is anyone’s guess. I’d be going the Hollindale. Antonio will improve from the race and is still worth following. Click here for full replay: http://bit.ly/2nLI6lD
Race 5- I thought Winx was a risk heading into the race on a heavy Rosehill track but she is freakish and I read it completely wrong. With The USA and Tosen Stardom failing on the weekend- nothing has the ability now to get near her. To get beaten she would need to go to England or Japan where they would give her a big challenge. Hauraki is ticking over nicely with him or Le Romain looking likely to be the Doncaster winner. McCreery was plain. Click here for full replay: http://bit.ly/2mO7Cpo
Race 6- That NZ derby was a “proper race” and the winner was backed by members of my service and gee he had some on them. He was ridden into the corner and still kept coming. They can’t beat him in the Derby unless Rising Red comes up. Anaheim was good and perhaps prefers drier. So Si Bon was huge sitting 4w and was the best run in the race. Harpers Choice was worth a go from Avdulla who isn’t riding as good as he was – but tactics like this is what makes him one of our top 2 riders in Australia- it didn’t work but he earnt more money trying this way than he would have ridden ‘textbook”. Inference and Impavado if saved for the QLD Derby would fight the finish out but are wasting their time in The Australian Derby as 2-3 of them have them covered. Click here for full replay: http://bit.ly/2mmBDk9
Race 7 – This race shows how the media say it was a genius ride this and freakish ride that- but when you watch it objectively – he had no choice after she was slow away by ½ length and a few things worked out very well. The race saw plenty of horror rides and given the inside shortcut this filly was greatly suited by the run before where they went 9 lengths above average early which really gave her a hard-conditioning run. Talk that she will run in the Everest is staggering as this field was pretty much hopeless and the race ranked 8th on the day of 10. By far and away the run of the race was TULIP- she was freaking amazing to still be there at the finish after being 4wide the trip and ridden around the bend she still kept boxing on up the straight. The other run I thought had merit was Diamond Tathagata and something like a Champagne stakes would be ideal for him. She will Reign will join the crowded club of Slipper winners who don’t train on- but who cares she has won over $2m. Some of the horses given no hope by their riders were Madeenaty (Regan Bayliss), Veranillo (Avdulla), Chauffeur (Josh Parr). If anyone wants to back Single Bullet ever again come and see me – I’ll offer you 3 turns above as he is a slow 2yr old and will need to really improve to win another race. Catchy never handled the track one bit and the best two horses are Tulip and Catchy from the race moving forward. Click here for full replay: http://bit.ly/2n1zmYU
Race 8 – I had no opinion of the winner going into the race but massive betting plunge saw him get reshod pre-race (kiss of death) and he was still good enough to sit 3 and 4 wide and win (albeit against a non-winner like Redzel). He deserves all the credit the winner. Glenall had a suck run out the back but was never likely once they decided to come wide. Heatherly was amazing sitting 4 and 5 wide and she is flying. The ride on Felines from Corey Brown highlights why unless in my opinion he is on a superior horse that has an advantage on the field why you should never ever punt on him. If we look at the stewards report I thought, they were very generous with their ruling and the ruling here was akin to a First-Grade Footy coach telling his hooker he must tackle the opposition. “Rider C Brown was reminded of his obligations to ride his mount out to the finish of the event at least hands and heels wherever possible.”. Whilst I don’t know the bloke this is not the first time he has done this since being back in Sydney. The best advice I can give you going forward is pen all his rides, he will win races but other riders seem stronger in a close finish and this combined with other senior jockeys being tactically superior. In the last 365 days, he has ridden just 8 winners from 142 at a strike rate of just 5.6% in Australia. On Saturday, he cost his connections $14,000 in earnings for not riding Felines out plus some valuable Group 1 black type for the filly. Don’t get me wrong the horse couldn’t win but his lack of vigour here was average for a senior rider in a Group 1 race. It’s only my opinion but I feel sorry for all the punters who had this horse in the first 4 bets as well. To my mind if stewards started handing out 1 month suspensions to jockeys this habit would stop very quickly as Corey Brown isn’t alone in this habit with our leading rider H Bowman being charged twice recently. Click here for full replay: http://bit.ly/2n1UWMD
Race 9 – The worst rating race of the day but perhaps one of the best rides of the day by the Godolphin horse in William Buick. To prove it wasn’t a fluke have a look at his ride on Chetwood who ran last at Newcastle and it was another gem. Nash Rawiller was the best front running rider I have seen but on his exploits not only here but in Europe this bloke is a serious challenger. He still needs help with his bias and the lanes he needs to avoid and target but W Buick is one bloke you can bet with confidence with – it was exceptional. However, for all the other riders given they went 12 lengths below standard they should be asked some serious questions to just what the hell they were doing playing follow the leader. Tommy Berry at least tried something but did it through the worse going so I thought her effort was ok. The winner won only because of the rest being so ordinary and this race is best forgotten. Click here for full replay: http://bit.ly/2nXBRuq
Race 10- The last race was run in horrible conditions- but the winner is stakes class and was deserving of the win. The runs of Dream Lane and to a lesser degree of Heavenly Anna where huge and I think Flash Fibian back to Randwick is worth following. Twist tops nearly fell and should be forgiven. Click here for full replay: http://bit.ly/2mmNbDV
Sack File: Corey Brown.
Back File: William Buick on leaders, Dig Duke in a staying event, Tulip and Diamond Tathagata as long as they miss having a run for at least 3 weeks after the gut busting slipper run.
Don’t Drop off: Antonio Giuseppe, Heatherly, Zestful but on a dry track only.