BMW Stakes Preview.... By Luke Murrell

Humidor is a leading chance in tomorrows BMW Stakes. Photo courtesy of Geo Hillis Photography.

Humidor is a leading chance in tomorrows BMW Stakes. Photo courtesy of Geo Hillis Photography.

Racing in Sydney returns to another water-logged Rosehill this weekend and I thought given the rain we have had the track played ok on the weekend with largely most of the jockeys doing their best.

All credit goes to She Will Reign who won the richest Two-year-old race in the world and whilst I believe it will prove to be a  below average year all you can do is win and in hindsight the tough run she had the start before where she  went out an amazing 7 lengths above average really gave her a great platform to handle the Slipper conditions.

Last week saw a very unusual occurrence as well with the Melbourne horses dominating what normally is a graveyard for them each and every year. Whilst it’s still a very profitable approach to “pen Melbourne Horses in Sydney” I think this carnival will clearly be the exception. It’s no secret Sydney racing on average is 3 to 5 lengths stronger on average but the Melbourne horses this Autumn carnival have a clear edge I feel as they have missed all the rain and crappy weather and as a result their races have been more truly run giving them a better fitness base and with the weather being so much nicer in Melbourne in recent times ( you don’t hear that often ) the horses have better coats and are naturally just more forward and in a better place than what the Sydney horses are. People often here me talk about the key to winning races is a horses “platform” and this is a seriously good platform to help them with the much harder Sydney Racing

Onto Saturday card and we have a 6m rail which is traditionally on a firm track a great betting option as 6m Rosehill rail is “fence on fire” and leaders suited. Horses on the weekend with a 6m patch are going to be even more effected by the “swamp” that is the Rosehill home bend and it’s clearly a detriment for horses trying to be at top speed through this section or for those that are coming wide prior to the bend and last week saw the undoing of a number of potential winners due to the jockeys doing too much in this section. Therefore, I think you want to focus on horses drawn in this weekend and settling forward of midfield. The Staying races are not as effected as they are spread out more- however it’s something to seriously consider when doing your selections

I’ve looked closely this week at the BMW FIELD and we have a Slow Speed expected. What is interesting is each horse has paid just under $12,000 to enter the race and as soon as the gates open horses 6th back to 9th will get back a guaranteed $15,000 just for racing. Given this a Group 1 event it does seem a little crazy we pay this huge money for horses who don’t even challenge:

HorseSettlesComment
Our IvanhoweWorse than Midfield to Last pairBest Price Is $4.60 Bet Now. Visually was super impressive last week but what did he beat? Hartnell is going ordinary and USA I don't like on those conditions. All you can do is win and his effort was good and a great effort to win first up. Reports were pre-race his feet have never been better- blah blah blah and this week he is lame again. Anthony Freedman is an exceptional horseman so the horse will get every chance. Whilst he will get his conditions I can't see a 7 day back up into a 2,400m WFA race with more depth than last week's race is any help. All you can do is win but I have to be against him as 2,400m is a different world and he has proven in the past he doesn't run it out as strong as 2,000m.
Exospheric Best Price Is $11 Bet Now. The price here looks clearly wrong - he is a much better horse on Australian form than his stablemate- is younger and has more upside and is into this 3rd up. The stable jockey more or less is riding him and whilst he got a lot of favours last start I thought he was good enough. 3rd up is not ideal but he is a chance as he is better on best ratings than most of these. I wonder if connections have had a bet ???? He can win.
Who Shot the BarmanOut the backBest Price Is $26 Bet Now.What a tough old horse he has been- but he is clearly looking for a nursing home and can't win this as it will be just a prep run for the Sydney Cup. He is to my eye "gone" and I assume he will be out the back- however if he was here trying to win the race I'd be instructing them to lead and lead at a good speed as he has some decent fitness levels and has lead previously on a very fast tempo in the past. He doesn't love heavy tracks but if they set him alight midrace he would give them some hurry up as he is a tough old bugger. Can't win with the expected tactics though.
Grand MarshalOut The BackBest Price Is $151 Bet Now. Another bloke I'd love to own but if the Barman is ready for a nursing home this bloke is ready for the grave- clearly lost his zest for racing and I'd suggest he will be retired very shortly.
LibranMidfieldBest Price Is $51 Bet Now. Always had a wrap on him from the media this horse but he found a period where he met some very ordinary horses. His been a good horse for connections but despite his record at best he is a Group 3 type horse in the big scheme of things so his price is missing a zero- He can't win.
HumidorWill be more forward hereBest Price Is $5 Bet Now. Now the interesting horses- this the fittest horse in the racing being with DK Weir, has also had the most runs this prep and whilst I'm sure the Australian Cup was his aim- Weir Horses have this amazing ability to hold their form. If you are looking for a wet tracker he is by far the most adaptable in the race having had a heavy 10,8 and 9 runs in NZ for a win in a Group 3 on a heavy 10, and 3.5 length win on heavy 8 in the BM75 and second in a Group 1 by neck on a heavy 9- so we know the heavy he will love. If he had a Sydney top liner on he would be unbeatable but D Lane playing away from home is the concern. The other concern is Teofilo has had 42 runners from 2200m plus in the Southern Hemisphere for just 1 stakes win and that's more the concern. He will look the winner clearly at some stage but that last 200m will be a huge worry. On the female side of the pedigree nothing in the first 3 generations has won past 2200m. Can D K Weir defy history?
TavagoForward of midfieldBest Price Is $6 Bet Now. Is hard in the market but only once has seen a heavy track when in the Group 1 when 1st up so that was no real guide (he seemed to handle it) and then got himself into a race last start where the leaders were slaughtered and he was almost last man standing- still his figures himself were good and his immediate family are more 1600 to 2000m horses. However, given the good run last start he is best of the locals.
JamekaSits 2nd pairBest Price Is $4.40 Bet Now. She was exceptional last start and Bowman will be looking to make amends from his last ride where she was forced to do an amazing amount of work. She has never seen heavy by Myboycharlies normal eat mud and if that last run hasn't flattened her she will be the horse they all have to run down. Her efforts in slowly run races have seen her 4 times and she has won 2 (a Group 2 and a Group 1) and be beaten in 2 other times by just 1.2 lengths in a Group 2 and a Group 1. She is the foolproof horse in the race.
Lasqueti SpiritLeads Best Price Is $21 Bet Now. If you want a good news story, then this is the horse to cheer for. One of the really nice guys in racing is Lee and Cherie Curtis and whilst I think her price is missing a zero or two it would be great to see her win it.

Overall: The race only has the following chances: Exospheric, Humidor, Tavago and Jameka with Our Ivanhowe taking up a large percentage we can back a few here and show a nice profit.

If you want to be safe you can just Lay Ivanhowe on Betfair of if you prefer to back something I’d be suggesting 1 unit Exospheric, 2 units on Jameka and a saver bet of 1 unit Humidor $5 and $1 unit Tavago- with obviously your winning result being the first 2 named. Nothing else could win the race so I think your pretty safe to play it this way. But if you like either Humidor or Tavago better than Jameka you can still switch them and show a profit.

Last week we got the chocolates again and congratulations to all those guys who backed our recommended bet when Big Duke got the protest over Our Century. That takes the free previews to 9 from 15 successfully showing a profit with the overall profit sitting at $1710 if you are following them betting $100/unit. Not a bad result for my free Friday overview.

If you would like to get my full set of selections which has had a couple flat weeks with 2 steps forward and 3 steps back but the yearly profit is still around the $5k mark for the year then head to the profit centre for Luke Murrell Yearly Horse selections where Luke and Just Racing offer a $1000 cash refund if you don’t win after 12 months along with a 1 month free trial!!!! Luke’s service has shown a profit each year for the past 19 years!!

https://justracing.com.au/luke-murrell-yearly-horse-racing-selections

Don’t forget out AFL and NRL man is guaranteeing that if you don’t win with his package he will refund you with $1000 cash back!!!!

https://justracing.com.au/sports-tipping

Preview brought to you by Luke Murrell: Luke is successful Professional Punter for the past 19 years and runs the highly successful www.australianbloodstock.com.au  as well as providing tactical advice and analysis for jockeys, trainers and owners.

As always good luck and happy punting this week end!!!