Smart Punting- Is It Science, Luck Or "Chooser"?

Gary Player, the South African golfing great of the 1960’s and 1970’s, was once asked in a Press Conference if he considered that he was a “lucky” golfer. Never one to be lost for a smart reply, his answer was – “It’s really funny that the harder I seem to work, the luckier I seem to get!”

Punting is a bit like that. Those that put the work in seem to come out on top, those who don’t end up with the backside out of their punting pants.

But what work should a smart punter do?

Someone once told me that there were as many punting systems as there are punters, and that may well be true. Everyone of us thinks that we have the answer to a sport that has arguably more variables that are out of our personal control than any other. The ways the acknowledged experts try to deal with those variables are many and varied as well. Some put their faith in Speed Maps, some in Form Ratings, some in betting trends, some in video research, some in trackwork, some in race sectionals – and some just follow certain trainers, jockeys, and trainer/jockey combinations. Some subscribe to tipping websites or are devoted to Tony Brassell – and some subscribe to CHOOSER!

What is the best way? Which way is the most rationally-based?

Let’s look at Speed Maps first. Speed Maps try to predict the running position of each horse in a race field to try to determine the likely pace of the race. Both of these factors are considered critical by proponents of Speed Maps. But, successful Speed Maps are very reliant on what happens when the Starter presses the button, and, as those who watched the Silver Slipper would realise, things don’t always go according to expectations. Everybody at Rosehill expected She Will Reign to jump and run, but she came out 2 lengths last! So, in that race, any punter relying on a Speed Map could have turned it into confetti, right then if she didn’t have the class to overcome it. The other problem is that the only running position that matters to a punter id the running position at the end of the race, not at the start or anywhere in between. The bookies don’t bet on where a horse will be at the 50 metre mark! So, can Speed Maps be a help? Of course they can, but as a firm predictor, they leave a lot to be desired. They are simply a tool to help somebody who knows racing and racehorses make more informed betting decisions.

So are Form Ratings, if they are used on a “stand-alone” basis. Form Ratings have exactly the same drawback as Speed Maps – they have to assume a level of predictability that may not always be there. In the end, they, too, are simply another tool in the toolbox.

How effective is following the trackwork, race videos, specific tipsters, trainers, jockeys and horses carrying silks with blue in the colour scheme? Well, they all work if you win! But the real lesson to be learnt is that, whatever system a punter might follow, the harder they work at understanding what their own system relies upon, the better their results on the punt will be. That’s a lesson that I, like all of us, learnt the hard way!

And that’s how “CHOOSER” was born.

“CHOOSER” is a very different way of looking at the punting problem. “CHOOSER” applies a scientific approach to data analysis to select the races that are the most reliable betting vehicles, and only once those races are selected does “CHOOSER” move to nominate the “CHOOSER Selections”. So primarily, “CHOOSER” selects races, not horses. Once a race becomes a “CHOOSER Qualifying Race”, the “CHOOSER Selections” happen automatically from the form ratings.

What is “CHOOSER” based upon? It’s a simple concept, really. ‘CHOOSER” combines decision making theory that has been around in broader business circles for more than 60 years with a very simple idea. That idea was that, if form ratings – any of them – have any validity at all, then there ought to be an identifiable correlation between the results of races and the relative form ratings of the horses in the races. And there is! And it works!

“CHOOSER” nominates 3 horses in each “CHOOSER” Race across Australia and New Zealand and then uses a simple set of “CHOOSER Betting Rules” as a possible framework as to how to bet on that race. Many ‘CHOOSER” Subscribers follow “CHOOSER Betting Rules”, but just as many don’t. They use “CHOOSER Selections” in the same way as others use Speed Maps, that is, as another tool to help in their personal decision-making.

What “CHOOSER” delivers is amazing consistency. In the last 13 months, “CHOOSER” has been profitable in every month, at a Profit On Turnover of close to 23%, and has had only 3 losing weeks in the past 59 - as the charts below show:

With profit for March sitting at $5,053 and for the year at $43,690 that’s pretty exciting!!!

You can be part of the “CHOOSER” experience with our free 1 month trial by going to: https://justracing.com.au/the-chooser