Racing returns this week to Randwick and boy oh boy we have some deep cards on offer and whilst it doesn’t mean you will get value it does mean you should find some big price horses to invest in.
The biggest mistake weekend punters make over these carnivals is to assume form from Rosehill will convert to Randwick – but history will show it means absolutely nothing. The Rosehill track profile is completely different to Randwick and as a result wet trackers can handle one and not the other. If you can take one thing from this weekend is focus on your possible selections to have Randwick wet track form more so than anything else
The racing this weekend sees us start off the first day of the Championship with a true rail and a monster 159 acceptances. In recent times a true rail has meant that those who get stuck on the fence almost have no hope and it’s certainly a big advantage for horses who settle midfield or better and lob in the 2-wide running line. If you like to lay horses in running there is a possible a big amount of money to be won.
Most punters like a good thing on the weekend to play some exotics and doubles with and I’m going to stick with the Group 2 Chairman’s as the race to preview this weekend as these staying events I find sometimes easier to pen most of the field and hence direct people into a winner.
Race 3 Schweppes Chairman’s Handicap Group 2:
|Big Duke||Back||Best Price is $2.55 Bet Now. He comes out of an exceptional race last time and whilst I admit I own him but he looks in a different league to these. There are 2 chances of him getting beaten. The first is if that run which on the figures was a gut buster but rated exceptionally well has flattened him- or if Craig Williams gets caught on the fence. Even with a flat run I think he could beat these and then go on and win the $2m Sydney Cup. I expect if he parades well he will start in the red.|
|Kinema||Last||Best Price is $13 Bet Now. If the race was run on his UK form he would be the hot favourite here- but since that Flemington Run when first arriving he just looks a different horse. He got beaten 15 lengths last time but this is more his track and if there is a danger it's this horse.|
|Aloft||Leads||Best Price is $4.60 Bet Now. I expect he will try and run them along in this race which looks to be devoid of speed but he is not in the class of the top 2 and yet he is 2nd favourite. Is very one paced and is not up to these.|
|Penthalon||Worse than Midfield||Best Price is $21 Bet Now. Been a terrific old NZ horse who is tough and solid but he is on the downhill slide and would need a big reversal to do something here but I can't have him.|
|Alegria||Forward of Midfield||Best Price is $9 Bet Now. She ran 2nd in this last year but that early form she has shown doesn't look to have any substance this time in. Could be a place hope due to the lack of depth but she looks to be only just going.|
|Polarisation||Midfield /lead||Best Price is $9.50 Bet Now. He could easily roll forward as he doesn't have a clear pattern in Europe. The trip will be no issue but not for me.|
|Rock On||Last||Best Price is $7 Bet Now. Kiwi horse coming across - he is extremely short in the market and I can't for the life of me work out why. It will like the wet track but this looks a different class to what it has raced.|
|Vandancer||Forward of midfield||Best Price is $17 Bet Now.Comes out of possible the worst race of the carnival last start and rises 700m- she is a mare running to run 3rd or 4th for some black type- but she couldn't win.|
|Shalmaneser||Leads / on pace||Best Price is $ 67 Bet Now. Not with stolen money.|
In summary if Big Duke is not flat from that amazing figure race last time he wins and then should win the Sydney Cup with just 51kg on his back. I’d suggest having the 5 units on him now at the $2.55 and also have 5 units on him in the Sydney Cup at the $4.60
Last week we got the winner again at good odds when Jameka bolted in – but it must be said that BMW is historically a grave yard for future success and with news that she got badly ill after the race let’s hope she is ok. I hope the talk that she will head overseas to Europe is not correct as firstly in my opinion she will get lapped and secondly, she deserves to stay here and be given her chance in a second Caulfield Cup.
Our overall profit for the year sits at 10 wins from 16 previews for a profit of $2090 based on a $100 bet
+ Luke Murrell Yearly Horse Racing selections are sitting at $4021 profit for the year.
+ Chooser Horse selections are in profit for the year $15,296
+ NRL/AFL man is in profit $1200 from the first few weeks
For any of the paid selection services go to the Profit Centre page for more information and also take advantage of the free 1 month trial for Luke Murrell Yearly Horse Selections and Chooser.
Good News Story
Congratulations to the Queensland Cobras as they are known. The boys have been long term subscribers to a number of the services and 18 months ago they got Australian Bloodstock to purchase them a young horse off the trials using the $40,000 profit they had won from the services. Only $30,000 of the $40k budget was required Well the good news is off a recent trial they have just sold the horse for $400,000 to Asia. For 2 guys under 25 years of age – it’s a huge result for them – so well done. They have just brought into our 2-horse package for 10% and just brought 10% of 1 of our recent Japanese purchases.
Preview brought to you by Luke Murrell: Luke is successful Professional Punter for the past 19 years and runs the highly successful www.australianbloodstock.com.au as well as providing tactical advice and analysis for jockeys, trainers and owners.
As always good luck and happy punting this week end!!!