The Friday Night preview goes up early this week as if you’re like me you will be bored out of your brain on Friday waiting for the day to finish so we can get into Saturdays racing. Thankfully Ascot will be on this year and it at least provides some relief although the only thing that scares me about Ascot is all cops and robbers on display. At the risk of offending all of the “BELIEVERS” seriously it’s about time we stopped the “lets halt the world for a religious day rot”
Last Saturday saw the most amazing thing with the Sydney Cup being a no race and it was the most bizarre feeling on course when it all happened. Whilst it was declared a no race the race told us a lot of things and the man ones being 1. Assign is Listed horse only and won’t run 3200m pushed out of a plan at 3300m and that the 3 who fought out the finish won’t be doing so next week.
Onto this week though the most interesting race in Sydney will be the Group 3 Frank Packer Plate where my recent purchase in Mongolian Wolf will step up. He has done some terrific things in New Zealand but the big question will be actually how much work has he missed. He is certainly the best horse in the race.
We get a 7m rail position this week and that’s highly unusual but after doing the review of Saturday I’d suggest they will get at least 2-3 off the fence but naturally a 7m rail turns the joint into a greyhound track and on pace will be suited.
Frank Packer Plate Preview:
|Acatour||Midfield to worse than midfield||Current price is $2.80. His got some ability Acatour and is the one to beat here- however his racing sectionals and profile suggest he might be just a mile to 1800m horse- however given we have only moderate speed he should be right. The slower they go the better for him as he has the best TOF in the race.|
|Veladero||Leads||Current price is $7.50. He is our leader and could easily get away with blue murder up left alone as he is 3-4 lengths quicker than anything in the race in the first 200m|
|Mongolian Wolf||Midfield to worse than midfield||Current price is $3.70. Has run better than open age class times and will prove to be the best horse in the race. He was purchased Friday week ago but was scheduled to race on that Saturday so was obviously fit as he was the favourite for the Group 3- we elected to scratch him and then he was flown to Australia Wednesday night- meaning he more than likely missed his Tuesday gallop and since then his had just the one piece of serious work- although to be fair he went well. He is on a QLD Derby path and still can win on class despite being perhaps a run behind.|
|Captain Duffy||Possibly tries to lead||Current price is $9. I can see them trying to string the field out here as he is a real one speed horse but he couldn't win unless the 2 favourites got into trouble.|
|Rock and Swing||Out the back||Current price is $12. To me he looks one that was set for the race and he has his share of ability - the price is wrong and he is a chance.|
|Violate||Worse than midfield||Current price is $17. A nice enough horse but I don't like him here.|
|Screamarr||Worse than midfield but possible forward of midfield||Current price is $11. Another weird A Cummings placement - he ran great last week but that was 1400m and this is 2000m. Is perhaps the second-best horse in the race but the big distance jump is a concern?|
|Rokda Kasba||On Pace||Current price is $16. She has raced on speed twice now but they have walked- so she will find this step up in class probably too fast for her- She is in the race to run a place for her broodmare value later in life and I can't have her.|
|Kunming||Worse than Midfield||Current price is $201. He should be $33/1 not $201 and is a great place bet if he runs - but he is nominated in weaker races so you would assume they will head that way.|
|Eerised||Last||Current price is $201. Should be $999 to 1- got none.|
In summary, the best horse is Mongolian Wolf – but obviously the Weir camp only know that he is happy and seems to be fit enough and are guessing he will be right having come from the freakish Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman Stable.
The best way to play the race would be 3 units Mongolian Wolf, 2 units Acatour and 1 unit Kunming for a place if he runs and 1 unit on Rock and Swing @ the $12
Last week we somehow missed out on the photo when Formality looked home so this brings the profit down to $2360 on the free Friday previews and we are now 11 from 18.
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Preview brought to you by Luke Murrell: Luke is successful Professional Punter for the past 19 years and runs the highly successful www.australianbloodstock.com.au as well as providing tactical advice and analysis for jockeys, trainers and owners.
Happy Easter from the team at Just Racing.