Racing This weekend is back to the disgraceful surface that we call Randwick and how they can’t get that surface right is beyond me. In my opinion if the curator was a CEO of a company or sports team coach they would have been shown the door well before this. The track is currently rated a heavy track for the third week in row with limited rain falling especially in teh last 2 weeks. Don’t forget statistics say that punters will not bet as much on wet tracks and that’s all we have had in Randwick despite some record temperatures earliy in the year when we still raced on a soft 6.
The rail goes from a 7m rail back to a 2m rail which is unusual and I’d suggest you should be looking for horses drawn to settle on speed and in. We saw the meeting last week where the inside 6 lanes from about race 5 where like quicksand and given this will now be this week’s lanes 7 to 13 I think horses down the middle will be badly disadvantaged and hence you want horses coming down lanes 1,2,3,4 and 5.
The race I’ve previewed this week is the 1200m race 2 on the card as I think it has some promising horses you can follow going forward. It’s a funny race as we have no real speed and at best it will be slowly run.
Race 2 Schweppervescence Handicap:
|Tessera||On pace||Current price is $6. A former top two-year-old who lost his way as a 3yr old. His had 3 solid 1050m trials for this so will be up to the mark. My issue is he won his 2 races with Blinkers on and they have elected to use them here- so its points to good intent and he should be right to go. He should land in a great spot and gets Australia's current best jockey in K McEvoy. He trialled ok in slowly run trials so should be sharp enough for this. Heavy conditions will be no issue as the sire really is only a wet track sire for mine in these better races. He can win.|
|Twist Tops||Forward of Midfield||Current price is $12.Amazingly tough little horse who has won $250k- she can be more forward here but for mine in not a winning chance.|
|I Thought So||Midfield to possible even leading||Current price is $2.80. A really nice horse going forward as the price might suggest but I am concerned he will be looking for further. Has been given a 900m trial since his last run which I like and as long as Clark rolls forward he is the one they have to beat but is certainly short enough. Heavy conditions will be no issue.|
|Quick Feet||Worse Than Midfield||Current price is $18.I thought she is constantly overrated - I'm happy to leave her well alone. For mine Josh Parr going awful compared to what he was doing 8=10 weeks ago. I would suggest though that he would be more preferred than Angland (on a more fancied stablemate) so perhaps could be the surprise if there is one here.|
|Gibraltar Girl||Worse than Midfield||Current price is 6.50.3 times as short as the stablemate and I do like the lead up race she comes from despite being beaten 6 lengths. For mine though she is a 1100m horse and 1200m here on another testing track will see her vulnerable.|
|Calabasas||Midfield but could be made to be on speed||Current price is $7. Was given a go at the big money Provincial championships but that was always a waste of time as he wouldn't run 1400m given a break half way. 1200m is more his go but his outclassed here.|
|France||Worse than Midfield||Current price is $8. Possibly the best horse in the race - but he is by Redoute's Choice who generally don't like heavy conditions and comes into this with just the one trial over 742 which is basically a waste of time.He will get back but his a very smart horse for the future back on a firm. C Reith rides but his well out of form and making the wrong decisions. Ill risk him but long term he is the best horse.|
|Kawaikini||Worse than Midfield||Current price is $34. His first 3 runs where great this time in from a stable flying at present - but last run on went the Synthetic hoof filler and possible the square wheels as she went horrible (although lack of speed was against). I think he will start shorter than this price but with the possible feet issues happy to risk him.|
The race has 4 main chances in Tessera, I thought So, Gibraltar Girl and France.
At the current prices, I’d recommend 3 units on Tessera at $6 now and 2 units on I thought So at the $2.80- with obviously Tessera being our better result.
Last week we nailed the winner again to take the FREE FRIDAY Preview to 12 from 19 but importantly the profit is sitting at a healthy $2775 when Mongolian Wolf saluted easily. Congratulations to the guys who got as much as $6 about the winner but as we suggested the $3.70 last week we will only claim that
It’s been a really good week all round with My horse selections winning $2k, Chooser continues to make his average of $800 per week profit and our AFL/NRL man is making good progress.
We are also offering a 1 month trial for Luke Murrell Yearly Horse Selections and as a bonus you will receive the Sydney Speed Maps for a year for trialling the product. So, you receive $874 value for trialling the product which also has a $1,000 money back guarantee if you don’t win over the course of the year!!! Click here to take advantage of the offer: http://bit.ly/2ouzDpy
Preview brought to you by Luke Murrell: Luke is successful Professional Punter for the past 19 years and runs the highly successful www.australianbloodstock.com.au as well as providing tactical advice and analysis for jockeys, trainers and owners.
Good luck and happy punting!!