Rail Position: True Position Entire Circuit
Track Condition: Heavy 8
Best bet – Race 3 #2 Zamex $2.35 bet now
Value bet – Race 8 #2 Noumea $34 bet now
The rail is in the true position and hopefully the track can get an upgrade on Saturday morning.
Its a tricky winter meeting, but I think I have found some values in a few races and I expect the track to race fair/even.
Race 1 – 11:25AM HANDICAP (1350 METRES)
No. 1 Hualalai was a short priced favourite last start and didn’t beat much, but I think that win would have given him a lot of confidence. He has had a very nice trial between runs and he should cross this field with ease from the awkward draw. No. 9 Momentum To Win should have finished closer to the winner last start, but he got too far back. He is a nice animal in the making who is fitter now and the rise in trip is perfect. No. 3 Bull Market is a lightly raced colt who trialled well leading into his first-up win. He didn’t beat much last start, but he won well and he much be respected now that he strips fitter. No. 2 Gaulois stuck on well behind a smart horse last start, but I am happy to bet around him because he is well under the odds.
Race 2 – 12:00PM Benchmark 73 Handicap (1400 METRES)
No. 2 Faraway Town got back and attacked the line very nicely to finish fourth at this track last start. She hasn’t been disgraced behind some very smart horses in her career, drawn well and she has won on a heavy track in the past. No. 10 Insensata comes out of the same race as my top pick and I thought her effort was just as good. This filly is ready to peak now and hopefully Kathy is positive from the gun draw. No. 5 Arbeitsam stuck on very well first-up and he must be respected again now that he is fitter and gets a 2kg claim. No. 11 Travancore is a very fit horse that must be respected from the gun draw. This colt is a big chance if he produces his best.
Race 3 – 12:35PM HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1500 METRES)
I am not a big fan of betting in these highway races, but No. 2 Zamex was very impressive last start and I can’t see any of his rivals getting near him this weekend. He will have to go back from the draw, but he has a nice turn of foot and the stable should have him fitter now. No. 10 Murmaid has won her last two in nice style at Canberra. This filly has drawn well in barrier three and she will appreciate no weight on her back. No. 4 Mister Marmalade ran out of petrol first-up behind Zamex. He is fitter now, but he just needs a bit of luck from the wide draw. No. 6 Al Cubana finished off well last start to score a nice win. He is a consistent horse who will be right in the finish if he can get luck from the wide draw.
Back the 2 to win $2.35 bet now
Race 4 – 1:10PM Benchmark 85 Handicap (1200 METRES)
No. 12 Validate didn’t have much luck throughout the race last start, but that didn’t stop her from winning in nice style. She is a very consistent mare who will get a much better run throughout from the lovely barrier. No. 6 Test The World is flying this time in and I like that she sticks to this distance. She is rock hard fit now, but this filly just needs a touch of luck from the awkward draw. No. 2 Upscale is fitter now after her first-up run, but the heavy track and the wide barrier are a bit of concern. No. 10 Nonpareil is racing well and she loves racing on a wet track. Drawn good and comes in well at the weights.
Small bet on the 12 each way $7.50 bet now
Race 5 – 1:45PM Benchmark 85 Handicap (1500 METRES)
No. 14 Reiby The Red did enough first-up at Warwick Farm and then second-up he had no luck , but still managed to stick on well. This gelding loves a heavy track, he has drawn well and the lightweight on his back is a big help on these wet tracks. No. 2 Moss ‘n’ Dale is a very consistent Victorian galloper who has been heavily supported in pre post markets. He is a very fit horse who loves heavy tracks. No. 4 Liapari is a bit of a tease, but his recent trial was good and I think this horse has been looking for a heavy track. He is a big chance if he puts it all together. No. 10 Obsidian resumes and has had two nice trials this time in. He will be better suited over further, but I wouldn’t be shocked if this animal ran a massive race first-up at good odds.
Small bet on the 14 each way $10 bet now
Race 6 – 2:25PM HANDICAP (2000 METRES)
No. 4 Tucanchoo has been good in both runs back this prep and he looks ready to win now over the longer trip. No. 7 Alegria worked home well from the back last start over 1800m. She gets through all conditions and she should appreciate the rise in trip. No. 6 Supply And Demand is racing well and he is a deserved favourite, but I am a bit worried that he will not run out a strong 2000m. No. 10 Montauk is a bit of a tease, but his last run was good and this gelding is rock hard fit
Back the 4 to win $4.20 bet now
Race 7 – 3:05PM Benchmark 85 Handicap (1100 METRES)
No. 5 Secret Trail ran well first-up at this track and then last start she got back and run on strongly to win at Canterbury. She is ready to peak now and the bit drop in weight is going to take her a long way in this race on Saturday. The wet track is no concern. No. 11 Fickle Folly is a lightly raced filly who was beaten as a short priced favourite at Tamworth last start, but I am happy to forgive that effort because she needed that run. She is fitter now and if she can repeat her effort three starts ago behind Artistry than she will be very hard to beat. No. 3 Badajoz did enough first-up at Randwick. He must be respected because he is a smart animal, but this gelding is going to need a lot of luck from the awkward draw. No. 8 Sir Plush is a very talented horse who could blow these horses away if he handles the heavy track. He should be ready to go after two recent trials.
Back the 5 each way $8 bet now
Race 8 – 3:45PM Benchmark 78 Handicap (1800 METRES)
I am going to have a throw at the stumps in this race and hope that No. 2 Noumea is fit and ready to go first-up. His two trials have been quiet, but his first-up record is ok and his overseas form is good enough to win this. If Heywood goes forward and rolls along at a nice tempo then he should give his backers a great sight at massive odds. No. 7 Carzoff ran a nice race in his Aussie debut at Warwick farm. The Waller team will have him fitter now and this animal is going to love the rise in trip. No. 5 Springbok Flyer ran a cracking race first-up and he is another Waller horse who will appreciate the longer trip. I would like to see this horse ridden very quietly. No. 10 More Than Fabulous has been good in both runs back this prep and he always runs a brave race at this track.
Race 9 – 4:25PM Benchmark 78 Handicap (1350 METRES)
No. 3 Raijinz had no luck last start, so just put a pen through that run, but his run before that where he finished fourth behind Untamed Diamond is good form for this BM 78. He is a tough horse who has drawn well and the 2kg claim is a big help. No. 2 Invincible Knight is a talented gelding who ran home well first-up at this track. I expect him to be fitter now and I like that Bowman goes on his back. No. 6 Pick Me Up was very good first-up and he is going to be competitive again this weekend, but the wide draw is a massive concern. No. 11 Helensburgh Ham is ticking along well this prep and from barrier two he should get a lovely run.
Back the 3 each way $14 bet now
2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11
3, 4, 5, 8, 11, 12
2, 4, 5, 7, 10, 11, 12
2, 3, 6, 11, 14