Back to Moonee Valley for a rare Saturday afternoon, first meeting and track renovated since William Reid meeting a Friday night March 24. Track manager Marty Synan says track about 80% after the renovations but improving every day. Track has gone up a Good 4 this morning with a penetrometers reading of 4.67. Rail true is normally ideal and fair but expect swoopers advantaged later in the day.
BEST: Race 8 #12 GALLIC CHIEFTAIN $4.80 bet now
VALUE: Race 5 #3 CHERYL’S HORSE $9.50 bet now
Race 1: 9-1-3-4
Tough start with three un-raced two-year-olds taking on solid but not spectacular form from raced brigade. And tipping one of those who has had one start and ran last in 9 BEHAVE and Nolen goes with it over a last start winner. Just an even debut in hot mid-season race but she looks the part and the key is resuming at 1200m (debut was 1000m) and has blinkers on. All the form of 1 WIRED has been on more affected ground than she will find Saturday but is tough and fit. 3 WANTED DIVA is the horse Luke Nolen rode to win at Cranbourne. Will be competitive and not much between it and 4 ADMIRAL MICHELLE – who gets Callow replacing a claimer. Liked the jumpout of 6 MIA GEORGIA, tough ask 1200m debut but has ability.
Suggested: Very even race have something each-way Behave around $5.50 bet now
Race 2: 5-1-3-2
Typically evenly graded mares race, only bottom three would surprise. Safest way is 5 GREY STREET – enjoying good preparation, gets good run again and not penalised at weights with Ben Thompson claim again used. 1 WHISTLE BABY drops sharply in grade and the “0” in form isn’t as bad as it reads given that challenge – has won here and has premiership leader Mertens – also gets advantageous track in running. No fluke in 3 VITAL MPORTANCE running over Grey Street at Caulfield, did have the last crack but she’ll need more luck from inside draw here. 2 TELOPEA stays at 1200m, looks as though ready for 1400m but hard to argue with D K Weir.
Suggested: better betting races later but Grey Street safe (1×3). $4.20 Bet now
Race 3: 7-11-14-9
Lowest rated race of the day (BM78), but form doesn’t read that way. Ok we have 7 MISS VISTA back to 1000m and around the Valley where she has won a 955m (with some fight), but she draws out and may have to adopt same tactics she did on that occasion taking a trail with so much speed down underneath her. Reckon 11 EL SICARIO has found his form now, with winkers and Callow and draws to get best trail. 14 LITTLE INDIAN a good roughie here around $14 after better bet but subsequent scratchings. 9 ABILITY has some but will need something special from Williams to find it, though he does have Miss Vista drawn alongside to make that happen.
Suggested: Like this quinella 7-11
Race 4: 4-3-1-7
No luck last start Flemington for 4 THE PASSAGE after a storming win over The Bool carnival. Drawn to advantage in running with race seemingly of solid tempo for three-year-olds at 1600m. 3 GREVISTE comes through same race but reckon despite tough run, The Passage beats him home at least here. 1 VIENNA MISS was $81 when she upset the most unlucky Petition in Adelaide Guineas last time out but drawn to also get advantageous run. Note all four mentioned here on Valley debut. 7 ATLANTIC EXPRESS is drawn poorly so will need luck. He gets blinkers for the first time and with having run over the mile last start he should be ready to peak.
Suggested: keen here 4 The Passage at $3.40 bet now
Race 5: 3-4-11-10
Like Scott Brunton coming to Melbourne who does so here with in form 3 CHERYL’S HORSE who has a widely travelled tale, from a Werribee trial to Hong Kong, back to Patrick Payne (who owns him) and sent to Brunton in Tassie who has turned him into a winning machine. Back to 1600moff tough 2100m victory and like the $7.50 gamble here. 4 COLDSTONE has the flashing light be on me next time (this time) look after two runs in and beaten by a star last time. 11 NEW GRADUATE is back to 1600m and typically holding form while 10 COSMIC LIGHTS has blinkers on again quick back up from sound Echuca Cup run last week.
Suggested: best each-way of the day 3 Cheryl’s Horse $9.50 bet now
Race 6: 2-11-5-14
Again, mares to start the quaddie and while 2 HAVE ANOTHER GLASS leads most markets around $3.6 and clearly has the form to match that assessment, want some insurance around her coming to the Valley first time. Can use gate to basically box seat then need some luck as track starts to expectedly chop out. 11 TRINITY HILL is looking for 1500m though goes there first time in career, while track winner 5 VIOLENT SNOW goes straight to it second-up off good return. 14 FOUR SISTERS is building good record and well placed but adding in 1 EVERY FAITH, 3 HOT RUBY and 13 THEMIS in the wide quaddie (we can cut down later legs)
Suggested: 2 quaddies here, one starts with the favourite 2 one out, the other with all mentioned.
Race 7: 6-4-3-11
Reckon the best value play here is 6 CAMDUS over 4 CHASE THE HORIZION and 3 HEZA RIPPER. Clearly the Weir runner (Camdus) should get over Heza Ripper again as it did in Adelaide and like the race shape for him here. Did win third up last preparation. 11 THIS KIDS ROCKS also comes through their same race so respected claims. Liked the win 7 CHAMOIS ROAD over the talented Star Stealer at Ballarat and has never run poorly in long preparation.
Suggested: Camdus strongly each-way, now into $4.8 bet now
Race 8: 12-15-9-2
Again like Weir here with 12 GALLIC CHIEFTAIN, especially out to 2040m third-up after two sound returns. Will be winning better races and will be the one swarming wide off the camber late in the day here. 15 OVERBERG gets blinkers after being turned over by 9 HURSLEY last time. Can avenge that at least. 2 LONGERON doesn’t do punters the favours many times but may be best of the on-pacers here – of which there are a few. Forgiving 8 TICK TICK BLOOM from luckless wide Adelaide run in tougher grade last time.
Suggested: Again very keen on Weir 12 Gallic Chieftain to win around $4.60 bet now
Race 9: 11-1-2-14
Like 11 KATSURO here, had no luck behind stablemate 4 Run Gypsy Run last time (she won as a $12 chance that day getting better favours). The other two are clearly 1 KEN’S DREAM and 2 BENZ, both winners at the Valley and the handicaps and ratings tell you their class edge on rivals, but gambling on Katsuro to match them here. To nominate a fourth (and only taking three in quaddie) why not go 4 RUN GYPSY RUN who was good first up winning at Caulfield three weeks ago.
Suggested: Play multiples around 1-2-11.