Perfect weather in Melbourne late in the week ensures the perfect surface for The Valley on Saturday with the rail pushed out 3m to that position from the meeting a fortnight ago. I like this position, not expecting a significant bias, close to fence (1-3 out) early but swooping runners off the bend will come into play through the day. Tempo more the key.
BEST Race 8: #8 HEART STARTER $4.60 bet now
VALUE race 4: #1 BELUGA BLUE $10 bet now
Race 1: 4-6-9-3
Was very keen and just missed out last time with 4 BEHAVE, lost it at the start with a messy getaway. Will be strong again late. Noting the improvement and progression of 6 ZELSIGNORET, another who will find the line. Thinking 9 SPEAK SOFTLY improves on better ground off sound debut for the season’s best juvenile producing stable. 3 JOSEPHINE SEA back against own sex after solid Lakeside effort last time.
Suggest: Stay with 4 BEHAVE $4 bet now
Race 2: 1-9-5-6
The form obvious is here is 1 IF NOT KNOW WHEN, the 2nd to Brisbane carnival winner Snitty Kitty two runs back leaps off the page but needs luck with chasing racing pattern and already too well found in market for mine. Can win but rather have something 9 UNIQUE LOVELY at the odds, backing up of Swan Hill last Saturday when overcame much trouble. 5 AIRINO solid on-pacer, 6 ARIAZ on better ground here suits. Blinkers on 4 MISS VESPER is significant. Note betting moves for the unseen in public debutant 10 FROCK ‘N’ BLING.
Suggested: Something at the odds on 9 UNIQUE LOVELY $8.50 bet now
Race 3: 5-3-4-8
So here is 3 MISS VISTA again from a wide alley and maybe with Williams taking the ride and use her natural asset – speed – to advantage and sure to be competitive as usual but I’m following the move for 5 ZARA BAY with Oliver riding for Team Hawkes off back of Sydney trial. 4 APPALACHIAN ANNIE was scratched from Wednesday to go here and have some claims. Mares in form – that’s 8 DAISY DOUTES though facing tougher test now.
Suggested: Has been well found from $6 but join in on 5 ZARA BAY $3.40 bet now
Race 4: 1-11-2-3
1 BELUGA BLUE is an 85 rater enhance the big weight in a BM84 but there is a reason for that, better form in better races. Sure will need some luck but you get the odds to play with here. Still has to give 6.5kg to 11 SOHO RUBY who will roll forward on the minimum and be hard to run over. 2 EVERY FAITH is ready third run in at 1600m but another who needs luck with pattern, transit and weight. 3 HAVE ANOTHER GLASS respected again in very even race.
Suggested: Like the odds about 1 BELUGA BLUE $10 bet now but many have a hope.
Race 5: 8-1-2-5
We liked 8 CAMDUS here last time and liked the way he charged at the line. Can do so even better in this grade with just 52.5kg (or 5.5kg for the BM 84 win). 1 RELDAS is a proven Valley performer especially at 1200m, Callow sure to give him gun ride. 2 LORD DA VINCI has found some sparkling form in Tassie for Scott Brunton though note has said publically horse had tough trip across the Tasman. 5 WHISTLE BABY is reliable and coming out of mares grade gets weight relief (5.5kg) to appeal again.
Suggested: Stick with Weir and 8 CAMDUS $7.50 bet now, solid quinella play with 1 RELDAS.
Race 6: 4-7-8-2
Though 1 KATSURO coms out, it’s race from last Valley meeting provides best form and going 4 HIGHLAND BEAT and 7 MYSTIFIED from behind her that day. 8 GO PUBLIC is the untapped in this grade. Noting 2 REVOLVING DOOR returns a gelding and only needs to find Guineas Prelude 2nd to be right in this. Had jumpouts.
Suggested: 4 HIGHLAND BEAT $4.40 bet now has been well found and shorter after scratchings.
Race 7: 8-11-6-13
Reckon 8 COLDSTONE is ready now, three good placed runs in and straight to the 2040m suits. Favourite 11 HURSLEY didn’t have much luck last time and sure to be in the finish here. 6 ROSE OF VIRGINIA was 150-1 last time in the same race and am taking that performance at face form value. 2 MEGABLAST has been well supported. Comes off wide margin heavy track win Ellerslie, hasn’t won on firm ground but the Valley is good option to try and do so here. Certainly respecting 13 GOODWOOD ZODIAC off debut Australian run.
Suggested: Take the gamble both ways 8 COLDSTONE $6 bet now
Race 8: 8-14-4-15
Very much liked the strong Echuca Cup run (and that’s good form – Tshahitzi impressive last week) and going with 8 HEART STARTER as best of the day. Has had no luck last three gets to 1600m and well placed with claim. 14 DATA POINT main danger on what shapes as strong day for Mick Kent. 4 RHYTHM TO SPARE seems to be in almost career best form and throwing 15 COSMIC LIGHTS into the wider quaddie but top 2 stand-out for me.
Suggested: Keen to play with Weir’s 8 HEART STARTER $4.60 bet now
Race 9: 4-7-5-11
With Kent runner again in 4 LEODORO, suited with claim, the CAMDUS form we are expecting to be measured again earlier in the day. 7 SEPTAMORE is ready third run in and drawn to advantage. 5 CATCH THE CAT is often under-rated and runs well at The Valley. 11 FIRE AGATE is not disadvantaged drawn out rolling forward. But others in for wide quaddie blow.
Suggested: 4 LEODORO straight out $3.90 bet now
$110 for 33%