We head out west for the Queen’s Birthday public holiday meeting at Warwick Farm and like the rest of Sydney there has been plenty of rain. The track is rated a Heavy 9 with a penetrometers of 6.04 and I am tipping a tough day that us punters must tread carefully.
With the heavy track the fields are not big with no race having than 9 runners.
The rail is in the true position for today’s meeting. Tommy Berry has taken ill and will not be riding.
BEST: Race 2 No.5 Heliosphere
NEXT BEST: Race 6 No.4 Lady Sansa
Race 1: 1-4-3-11
I am pretending today’s races at Warwick Farm are starting at race two. Not a great way to kick off the day. But just watching the first it will give us the3 chance to see how the track is going to play. For the record my numbers are 1-4-3-11.
1 WILD HEART hit the line terrific on debut at Geelong three weeks ago on a soft track suggesting some ability and with majority of Hawkes runners they improve sharply from their debut run. Nothing much between the next half a dozen runners 3,4,8,9,10 & 11.
Suggested: Have lunch & a beer
Race 2: 5-8-2-7
5 HELIOSPHERE was very good on debut at Randwick in a tougher race when charging from the back to finish fourth albeit only beaten 1.3 lengths into second placing. The smaller field today should enable him to settle closer and being by Sebring should mean the heavy surface is a bonus not a hindrance. He had trialled on heavy previously and looks ok. The step up to the mile looks perfect and with even luck he will win. 2 MADAME MOUSTACHE comes through the same race where she finished almost 2 lengths further back and looms as one of the dangers to Heliosphere here. I’m not convinced though about the mile but she will get a soft run from barrier one. 8 AFRICAN RAINBOW has raced 5 times and clearly her best run was on a heavy track when third behind the Golden Slipper winner She Will Reign. That simple fact makes her the biggest threat to Heliosphere.
Suggested: Betting up on 5 HELIOSPHERE $2.05 bet now – Quinella 5 & 8
Race 3: 3-2-6-4
3 RUGOSA ROSE was good debut here at Warwick Farm when coming from well back before her run came to an end and she finished third behind her stablemate Sharpness. With that experience I think she will settle closer especially with the longer journey of 1400m and she will obviously strip fitter. I am hoping out of a More Than Ready mare will mean she will relish the heavy ground. 2 JAUNTY looks a nice type and was solid on debut when second at Kembla when doing a few things wrong and wanting to over race. From gate one with Hugh Bowman on board she finds a nice city race to turn up in. She had trialled nicely on soft ground indicating she may handle the conditions. 6 VARESE isn’t without a chance especially if she is able to get a soft lead and find a kick on the bend. By So You Think so I think the extra trip will play right up her alley.
Race 4: 1-2-5-9
1 TIVOLI STREET looks a class above his opposition here and only him not handling the conditions will beat him but being by Lonhro I’ll take the odds he will get through the heavy. He has only raced four times filling a placing three times with two of them in the city. He was first up a fortnight ago when beaten a length by launch Code and that form line looks well above his opponent here. 2 DREAM BUILDER showed ability on debut at Newcastle when attacking the line and being by Lonhro the wet track shouldn’t pose an issue. 5 LUCKY LEGEND found the 100m way too short up and will appreciate the 1400m here so he is sure to run well.
Suggested: Short odds but 1 TIVOLI STREET looks a good thing $1.55 bet now
Race 5: 9-7-3-4
Last Wednesday at Canterbury my three leading chances all raced against each and it wouldn’t surprise which of them gets the money today. 9 QUEEN OF HEIGHTS sat outside the leader and never stopped coming to just fail but today she looks to get total control and the quick 6 day back up should help her. 7 ISLE OF CAPRI got a long way back and kept finding the line to be beaten just over a length. I don’t think the heavy will pose any problems and if the others are getting tired late she will be coming hard. 3 THAI BOXING should have won last week as he never saw daylight locked in behind the leader. My concern is whether he’ll handle the heavy which may seem mad as last week was a heavy track but cop a tip a Canterbury and a Warwick Farm heavy are very different. That said he is rock hard fit and I think in time he will win plenty of Saturday races. Other chance is 4 THE WORLD OVER.
Race 6: 4-1-7-5
4 LADY SANSA is absolutely flying and looms as the one to beat. She was outstanding at Hawkesbury two runs back in winning before a solid second to Collateral at Gosford who he conceded 2.5kg to before that galloper went onto win at Canterbury last week. Lady Sansa will position up handy and prove hard to roll. 1 ANISHA has been freshened since failing in tougher grade at Randwick. She finds a nice race and gets her preferred surface and I think looms as the only danger. Other hopes are 7 CROWN MOSS who loves wet ground and 5 FANTASIZE who is an improving mare racing in good order.
Suggest: Good bet on 4 LADY SANSA $3.60 bet now – save stake on 1 Anisha
Race 7: 5-1-4-10
5 AKASAKI is a handy country trained galloper and showed his class first up when blowing away his opposition first up at Dubbo with 59kg on his back. He has won 4 from 11 starts and certainly looked to the eye to have come back bigger and stronger this campaign. I think he goes better on firmer footing but he can get through the wet track so I am sticking with him. 1 WIDE ACCLAIM is first up and has trialled ok twice in preparation for today’s assignment. The claim for Deanne Panya and the heavy track as well as the small field are all big pluses. 4 VANILOQUIO is no spring chicken and if he turns in a repeat effort from ANZAC day when second at Randwick he will give this a big shake.
Suggested: Think 5 Akasaki is hard to beat but think he is under the odds. Perhaps cheer the Quaddie numbers.
Race 8: 13-14-10-8
13 LEVEL EIGHT has drawn wide but with a straight run to the turn Kerrin McEvoy shouldn’t have him too far off the leaders. He was very good last start coming off a 21 day break when third to Magical Stance. The heavy track won’t pose any problems for him and in a race where a few are out of form and the depth isn’t great Level Eight is sure to run well. 14 OUR BEATNIK looks well placed here and has got to be considered a player. From an ideal gate he should get a perfect run tucked in behind the leaders. He has shown he can handle slow tracks but the heavy surface is a concern. 10 PELETHRONIUS resumed first up with a tough winning effort at Kembla and will love the heavy ground having won both times he has raced on them.
Suggested: Small play 13 Level Eight $3.80 bet now – Quinella 4,8,10,13,14,
1st leg: 3,4,7,9
2nd leg: 1,4
3rd leg: 1,4,5,10
4th leg: 4,8,10,13,14 $40 = 25%