Ipswich 17 – 6 – 2017
The QLD Winter Carnival rolls into Ipswich for a big 9-race card, featuring the Ipswich Cup, supported by the Eye Liner Stakes & the Gai Waterhouse Classic. The track is rated a Heavy 8 at time of publishing, but with a bit of sun and a drying breeze around, I’m expecting the track to improve into the Soft range. Todays card is one of the most difficult cards I’ve previewed, so playing small and looking for value runners all day.
A very difficult BM75 over1350m to kick off the card, with the early favorite being 8 BARNSLEY at $6. 10 REAL EGO has unfortunately drawn the outside gate, which will make his task difficult, but I do think he is the best horse in the race. His fate will be determined early, if Jimmy “The Gun” Orman can slot him in with cover in the first few hundred meters he will be hard to beat. 8 BARNSLEY has been consistently in the money, but steps up to the 1350m for the first time. 6 UNO BEST is a query on the wet ground, but if it dries out he is a chance to settle right on the speed and will give a sight.
Numbers: 10 – 8 – 6 – 7
Suggested Bet: Small 1 x2 Each Way 10 REAL EGO $11 bet now
The second division of the BM75 over 1350m, again another even race with a few chances. 13 ASSERTORY hasn’t won for a while now, but she looks like she’s ready to break through again here. Has been hitting the line well when ridden a touch off the speed, from the good gate here she maps to get a suitable run. 6 WILLIAM WALLACE was suited with the speed on and git home over the top of them at his second Australian start, can figure here. 4 SUNNY VICTORY was a good last start winner, no one rides Ipswich as well as J BYRNE so from the low draw he can figure also. Although drawn wide, 5 CHEVAL LE VANT & 8 ABOHAR can figure in the finish with luck.
Numbers: 13 – 6 – 4 – 5
Suggested Bet: Small 1 x 2 Each Way 13 ASSERTORY $6.50 bet now
6 STEAMIN’ was an emphatic winner here in class 6 class 2 starts back, before going to Sydney and running 5th in a BM72. He has drawn well here, handles Ipswich, will race handy so looks a safe EW play. 3 FLYING LIGHT brings superior Melbourne form lines here, but has the outside gate to contend with. 8 CALL THE CAPTAIN will put himself right on speed and can give a sight here. He’s only lightly raced but shows promise, and a wet track looks no issue for him. 11 BECKONING LIGHT is one at odds that can run into the money here 3rd up.
Numbers: 6 -3 – 8 – 11
Suggested Bet: Small 1 x2 Each Way 6 STEAMIN’ $7.50 bet now
Hard to get a gauge on just how good 12 DARKTOWN STRUTTER is, but her last start win was visually impressive. She led and smashed her rivals under a hold. She had excuses first up last time in town, so I think she can measure up here. 6 REVENIER was ok second up last time, from the good gate will get a nice run. 3 INITIALIZE is a nice filly, wide gate here will be tricky but she has the ability to overcome it & 10 THE SOCIALIST who trialed well for his debut here.
Numbers: 12 – 6 – 3 – 10
Suggested Bet: Each Way 12 DARKTOWN STRUTTER $6 bet now
Speed here with 3 SIR DONALD, 2 SUNDANCE & 4 TIYATROLANI sitting just behind those 2. Wet track is a slight concern for 1 WITH APROMISE who carries the big weight of the back of her Silk Stocking win 2 starts back. 2 SUNDANCE holds the key here, he can lead or take the sit on 3 SIR DONALD and gets every chance form the draw. Outside of the above mentioned, 10 RAJA AMPAT is down in weight and will get a very nice economical run in transit, can be hitting the line late and getting into the money.
Numbers: 2 – 10 – 3 – 4
Suggested Bet: I’ll be watching
The Provincial Stayers Series Final here with conducted across QLD. Clearly the qualifying conditions need to be re-written as some of these in the market didn’t contest a heat. Anyhow, the best horse in the race is 1 I’M BELLUCCI and is weighted accordingly. Not sure he likes the wet track, but in the event of him running and the track drying, I’d be happy to be on him. Not sure whether he runs or not though here. Impossible field to dissect, 7 MANNY the Victorian visitor has competed well on soft tracks his last couple, and I would be including him in the numbers at a big price.
Numbers 1 – 9 – 7 – 8
Suggested Bet: Tough race, if the track firms to a soft5 i’ll have a very small EW 1 I’M BELLUCCI $21 bet now
The Ipswich Cup for 2017, I think it’s a 3-horse race, with 1 BENZINI 2, JUMBO PRINCE & 3 SORT AFTER. 1 BENZINI is a Group 1 performer and carrying 6kg above the minimum here is fair enough. His 2 runs in Australia have been good and on the back here will be hard to hold out. 2 JUMBO PRINCE has copped 2 ordinary rides his last 2 for mine. He dropped in to trail a 100-1 chance last time and got dragged back through the field last start and lost all momentum, and wasn’t able to pick up on the shifting Eagle Farm surface. 3 SORT AFTER will either lead or box seat, and be hard to get past.
Numbers: 1 – 2 – 3 – 11
Suggested Bet: BOX EXACTA 1, 2, 3
The Eye Liner Stakes at listed level has tossed up a very competitive field. On the proviso the track improves to a Soft 5 or Soft 6 at worst, I’m keen on the chances of 7 CAN’T BUY BETTER at the Each Way price. This horse has gone to another level this prep, and is finally fulfilling the promise he had shown previously. He is fit and posses the high speed & strength required to run well here. 1 SHIRAZ looks ready to break back into the winner’s circle here off a solid first up run last time. 12 ACATOUR has trialed well in preparation for this, he is a Group 3 winner on a wet track, hard to beat also. 10 PERFECT DARE & 6 THE VIRGINIAN can also finish in the money with luck.
Numbers: 7 – 1 – 12 – 10
Suggested Bet: Each Way 7 CAN’T BUY BETTER $9 bet now
2 I AM ZELADY looks the class runner here, but will need some luck from the wide gate. She is good enough to make her own luck here and win. There looks to be a bit of speed in the race, and if the enigma that is 8 NOTONYOURLIFE turns up he can definitely run a place. 1 KINSACHI should get a nice run from the gate and can place in this.
Numbers: 2 – 1 – 6 – 10
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