FLEMINGTON ANZAC DAY
Righto punters, butter up from Saturday’s carnage, can’t change that (Rich Charm won!) Good meeting, rain forecast race morning (not much) but this is Flemington and can take it, not over-reading impact on surface. Good 4 in the morning after 1.6mm overnight drizzle. Rail now out 10m (was 7m last time.
BEST BET: SHERLOCK HOLMES R1 #6
BEST VALUE: WINKLEMANN R4 #14
Race 1: 6-1-2-4
A rather elementary start to the day (pun intended) for me with SHERLOCK HOLMES. Looks so appealing down on 52kg now after giving away 8.5kg to conqueror last start. Now gets 6kg on who I perceive as main dangers GALLIC CHIEFTAN and BERISHA (quickly to this trip from 2000m but unlucky last two). Don’t think they can do it. SIN TO WIN gets another gear change but living up to its name this campaign.
SUGGESTED: Start with SHERLOCK HOLMES.
Race 2: 7-4-2-1
So TATOOSH comes here with 4 straight wins and with a bullet up the ratings and lines up against a flat-lining team with convictions and no recent wins. Again elementary, has to be top pick and has to win for mine because it knows how and hasn’t reached a peak yet in four runs as a gelding in SA for will Clarken. Gets to 1800m (G3 placed only start), runs forward, ready for this and if rain comes as forecast – no issue. Struggling to find clear danger away from LIFE LESS ORDINARY is ready to run well after 2 runs in but again been time since last win though yes has run in better races than Tatoosh (who will soon). MASK OF TIME may start to find his Toorak Form at this trip after 2 runs in, better in Golden Mile.
SUGGESTED: Hard not to like winners and TATOOSH is one.
Race 3: 1-3-6-12
Believing the eyes and not the ratings with OCEAN KNIGHT who charged through the line on debut Caulfield, though time was not “rated’ as good as visually looked. Looked a talent to me and RV handicapping gave it a 68 rating. But so much form ties in here. It beat SIZZLEME and DARK VILLIAN on debut and will do so again. Then there is the HAWKSHOT form, unluckily beaten by SECRET BLAZE when a $2.3 into $1.75 favourite but will turn that over here at the 1400m and that brings in GREEN IVY (4th) and WILD PLANET, (now with blinkers – 5th) – that also ties in EXPEDIUS from Ballarat who won next start and VASSILATOR ok with 5th there. Then there is Golden Script form best served by MISS LOUISANNA here. OSMIUM won despite itself at Ballarat and now has blinkers as Oliver recommended.
SUGGESTED: After all that – OCEAN NIGHT.
Race 4: 14-2-1-3
Had to like the positive ride and return win at 1500m on Hillside for WINKLEMANN. This is tough race but at $7.5 think it’s a terrific gamble, you will get great sight and no issue 1620m with rail out rolling here. Loads of potential threats, SEBRING DREAM ran well at Bendigo resuming and also suited here, SOHO RUBY has snuck up to 60kg off back good record and runs well Flemington. MA JONES is ready to improve now learning the Weir ropes.
SYGGESTED: At the value, pretty keen WINKLEMANN will give us bold sight.
Race 5: 2-3-7-9
THINK BLEUE has gone from a Maiden to a G3 win in four starts (3 wins) this campaign under Weir. Danger PALAZZO VECCHIO has gone through 4 luckless and frustrating if not costly runs to punters this campaign. Have to stick with the ‘winner”. SHEEZDASHING is in same boat as Palazzo Vecchio, can win but finds one better this time in – but is a link to the Savacool form – which is on show here. TRULY DISCREET is racing well enough to make a case.
SUGGESTED: THINK BLEUE I think is best way to go.
Race 6: 2-6-10-3
ASTORIA has to beat these unless does a “Cliff’s Edge” and is gassed after long Derby campaign. Failed ATC Derby after pushing Derby winner Levendi in Tulloch Stakes. Has no recent wins but contested way better races than these and if it fronts up well, should win. Otherwise a difficult challenge REZEALIANT was given a ground saving ride at Caulfield when beaten by stablemate WON WON TOO but think has made necessary progression for this in first campaign. HIGH ENERGY was a $71 when 4th in same race but may be getting into the staying groove for Weir now. RUNAWAY is off a BM64 at Geelong but the history of this race says that’s ok, last year’s winner won a BM58 going in. MAHEERA (Weir) goes in the wide quaddie, filly against the boys (Parthesia almost won this for stable last year).
SUGGESTED: ASTORIA or field in quaddie.
Race 7: 4-13-2-12.
The early money trial rightly for mine points to ICONOCLASM especially at 1400m now after stablemate Reilmartini got away from it at Caulfield. Can race more forward as per previous pattern. MOET ROSE beat it home at Caulfield and is also suited at the 1400m now but just think Flemington 1400m tempo plays way of top pick. MASCULINO comes back a gelding and like the Callow booking, not so much the alley. MR STORM is progressing well through grades and has Oliver and good draw. Much to like.
SUGGESTED: Sticking with ICONOCLASM.
Race 8: 9-7-12-1
Thought $7.5 was value BRAHMOS with blinkers off after being held by the now scratched KING RIVER. Accept MAXIMUS looks the good, is having powerful campaign through BM70 grades and well enough marked now into a BM84. MILWAUKEE gets the mind draw to suit and is racing well, also beaten (3rd) King River race but if repeats win over subsequent winner Handsome Thief up the straight, is certainly a key player. OVERSTEP returns to the straight where he is most effective. ENIGMAN has come back a winner – gelded, dominant resuming at Cranbourne. Well in with claim.
SUGGESTED: Going value BRAHMOS.
$30 for 100%
$200 for 50%.